MLB

MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/16/22

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Sep 16th, 2022

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Xander Bogaerts To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

The Boston Red Sox has a slate-high 5.46 implied run and are primed for an offensive explosion.

This is a very straightforward matchup for the Sox and their offense tonight. They are facing a bad pitcher, they have good hitters, and we want to target player props.

They are taking on Jon Heasley, who comes in allowing a .471 SLG, .351 wOBA, 5.13 xFIP, 1.36 HR/9, 15.3% strikeout rate, 43.6% fly-ball rate, and 37.6 hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Given those numbers, it's no surprise to see why the Sox have a very high implied run total tonight.

Xander Bogaerts is at the top of the list tonight, coming in with a 128 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .151 ISO, 32.9% fly-ball rate, and 31.9% hard-contact rate. Bogaerts also a 20.3% strikeout rate versus righties, which is better than the league average.

He isn't wasting chances at the plate and should be able to put the ball in play.

Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)

The Los Angeles Angels are bad and strike out a ton.

Targeting the Angels for strikeout props has been profitable all season since they are very undisciplined at the plate and give away chances. They come in with a 24.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-worst in the league.

Tonight, we turn to Robbie Ray, who comes in with a strong 28.0% strikeout rate and a 14.1% swinging-strike rate, both of which are higher than the league average. If you looked at Robbie Ray's Wikipedia page, it might say 'Owner of the Angels' since he has racked up 10 strikeouts in each of his three starts against them this season.

With that said, it's actually reasonable to add Ray 8+ Strikeouts (+162) and Ray 9+ Strikeouts (+300).