MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/15/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | James Kaprielian | 8.0 | 5.01 | 38.6% | 23.9% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| SD | Drey Jameson | 9.0 | 5.01 | 38.6% | 23.9% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| STL | Chase Anderson | 8.0 | 4.90 | 36.6% | 22.3% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| MIN | Daniel Lynch | 8.5 | 4.71 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| NYM | JT Brubaker | 7.5 | 4.55 | 30.6% | 17.5% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| CHW | Hunter Gaddis | 7.5 | 4.06 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| ARI | Sean Manaea | 9.0 | 3.99 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| PHI | Pablo Lopez | 7.5 | 3.94 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| KC | Dylan Bundy | 8.5 | 3.79 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| TOR | Shane McClanahan | 7.0 | 3.70 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| MIA | Noah Syndergaard | 7.5 | 3.56 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| CLE | Lance Lynn | 7.5 | 3.44 | 13.5% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| TB | Kevin Gausman | 7.0 | 3.30 | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| CIN | Miles Mikolas | 8.0 | 3.10 | 9.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| OAK | Lance McCullers | 8.0 | 2.99 | 8.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| PIT | Carlos Carrasco | 7.5 | 2.95 | 7.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | TOR | 7.1 | 92.4% | 83.8% | 71.4% | 56.8% | 41.9% | 28.7% | 18.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | TB | 6.7 | 90.4% | 80.2% | 66.5% | 51.1% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | PIT | 6.0 | 84.8% | 71.4% | 55.3% | 39.2% | 25.5% | 15.2% | 8.3% |
| Lance McCullers | OAK | 5.8 | 82.9% | 68.6% | 52.0% | 36.0% | 22.8% | 13.2% | 7.0% |
| Lance Lynn | CLE | 5.7 | 82.2% | 67.6% | 50.8% | 34.9% | 21.8% | 12.5% | 6.6% |
| Pablo Lopez | PHI | 5.3 | 78.0% | 61.7% | 44.3% | 28.9% | 17.1% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
| Sean Manaea | ARI | 5.3 | 77.7% | 61.4% | 44.0% | 28.6% | 16.9% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| Noah Syndergaard | MIA | 4.6 | 67.4% | 48.7% | 31.4% | 18.2% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| JT Brubaker | NYM | 4.5 | 65.3% | 46.2% | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Miles Mikolas | CIN | 4.4 | 64.4% | 45.3% | 28.3% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Dylan Bundy | KC | 4.2 | 61.0% | 41.6% | 25.2% | 13.6% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Drey Jameson | SD | 4.2 | 59.5% | 40.0% | 23.9% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Daniel Lynch | MIN | 4.0 | 56.7% | 37.1% | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| James Kaprielian | HOU | 3.8 | 52.9% | 33.4% | 18.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Hunter Gaddis | CHW | 3.5 | 47.2% | 28.2% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Chase Anderson | STL | 3.1 | 37.7% | 20.4% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 91 | Chase Anderson | 27.0% | +270 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Yes | 102 | James Kaprielian | 26.6% | +275 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 91 | Chase Anderson | 26.3% | +280 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | Yes | 93 | Sean Manaea | 23.7% | +320 |
| Kyle Garlick | MIN | Yes | 98 | Daniel Lynch | 22.6% | +345 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 98 | Dylan Bundy | 22.1% | +355 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Lance Lynn | 21.7% | +360 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | Yes | 101 | Shane McClanahan | 21.5% | +365 |
| Manny Machado | SD | No | 93 | Drey Jameson | 21.2% | +370 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Yes | 102 | James Kaprielian | 19.9% | +405 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | No | 98 | Dylan Bundy | 19.5% | +415 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 19.4% | +415 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 19.4% | +415 |
| Gavin Sheets | CHW | Yes | 103 | Hunter Gaddis | 19.4% | +415 |
| Juan Soto | SD | Yes | 99 | Drey Jameson | 19.4% | +415 |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | No | 99 | Hunter Gaddis | 19.1% | +425 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | No | 98 | JT Brubaker | 18.9% | +430 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 18.8% | +430 |
| Rodolfo Castro | PIT | Yes | 95 | Carlos Carrasco | 18.8% | +430 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 102 | Lance McCullers | 18.7% | +435 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | Yes | 101 | Shane McClanahan | 18.6% | +440 |
| Albert Pujols | STL | No | 91 | Chase Anderson | 18.4% | +445 |
| Tyler O'Neill | STL | No | 91 | Chase Anderson | 18.4% | +445 |
| Jack Suwinski | PIT | Yes | 95 | Carlos Carrasco | 18.3% | +445 |
| Isaac Paredes | TB | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 18.2% | +450 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | No | 101 | James Kaprielian | 18.2% | +450 |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | Yes | 98 | Daniel Lynch | 17.5% | +470 |
| Tyler Naquin | NYM | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 17.1% | +485 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | No | 101 | James Kaprielian | 17.0% | +485 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | Yes | 98 | Daniel Lynch | 16.9% | +490 |
| Nick Maton | PHI | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 16.7% | +500 |
| Josh Bell | SD | Yes | 99 | Drey Jameson | 16.5% | +505 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 99 | Dylan Bundy | 16.5% | +505 |
| Danny Jansen | TOR | Yes | 101 | Shane McClanahan | 16.0% | +525 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | No | 101 | James Kaprielian | 15.8% | +535 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 15.8% | +535 |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | No | 101 | James Kaprielian | 15.8% | +535 |
| Aristides Aquino | CIN | No | 91 | Miles Mikolas | 15.7% | +540 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 99 | Hunter Gaddis | 15.5% | +545 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | No | 90 | Pablo Lopez | 15.0% | +570 |
| Carson Kelly | ARI | Yes | 93 | Sean Manaea | 14.9% | +570 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 95 | Carlos Carrasco | 14.7% | +580 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | Yes | 101 | Shane McClanahan | 14.6% | +585 |
| Jordan Luplow | ARI | Yes | 93 | Sean Manaea | 14.3% | +600 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | ARI | Yes | 93 | Sean Manaea | 14.3% | +600 |
| Stone Garrett | ARI | Yes | 93 | Sean Manaea | 14.3% | +600 |
| Jake Fraley | CIN | Yes | 97 | Miles Mikolas | 14.3% | +600 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | Yes | 98 | Daniel Lynch | 14.2% | +605 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | Yes | 101 | Shane McClanahan | 13.9% | +620 |
| Nick Pratto | KC | Yes | 99 | Dylan Bundy | 13.8% | +620 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 93 | Sean Manaea | 13.6% | +635 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | Yes | 97 | Chase Anderson | 13.6% | +635 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 99 | Hunter Gaddis | 13.6% | +635 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | No | 99 | Lance Lynn | 13.6% | +635 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 95 | Carlos Carrasco | 13.4% | +650 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Yes | 99 | Dylan Bundy | 13.2% | +660 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 90 | Pablo Lopez | 13.1% | +660 |
| George Springer | TOR | Yes | 101 | Shane McClanahan | 13.1% | +660 |
| Brandon Marsh | PHI | Yes | 92 | Pablo Lopez | 13.0% | +670 |
| Dan Vogelbach | NYM | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 12.7% | +685 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | No | 99 | Sean Manaea | 12.5% | +700 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | 99 | Drey Jameson | 12.5% | +705 |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | Yes | 97 | Chase Anderson | 12.2% | +715 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 99 | Hunter Gaddis | 12.2% | +720 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Yes | 103 | Hunter Gaddis | 12.1% | +725 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 103 | Lance Lynn | 12.1% | +725 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Lance Lynn | 12.1% | +725 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | No | 91 | Miles Mikolas | 12.0% | +735 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 101 | Lance McCullers | 11.7% | +755 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Yes | 101 | Shane McClanahan | 11.6% | +760 |
| Elvis Andrus | CHW | No | 99 | Hunter Gaddis | 11.5% | +770 |
| Josh Harrison | CHW | No | 99 | Hunter Gaddis | 11.5% | +770 |
| Michael Chavis | PIT | No | 98 | Carlos Carrasco | 11.4% | +775 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 11.3% | +785 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | No | 90 | Noah Syndergaard | 11.2% | +790 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | No | 99 | Lance Lynn | 10.8% | +830 |
| Jake McCarthy | ARI | No | 99 | Sean Manaea | 10.6% | +840 |
| Stephen Vogt | OAK | Yes | 102 | Lance McCullers | 10.5% | +850 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Yes | 99 | Drey Jameson | 10.3% | +875 |
| Drew Waters | KC | Yes | 99 | Dylan Bundy | 10.3% | +875 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | No | 101 | James Kaprielian | 10.2% | +880 |
| Eduardo Escobar | NYM | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 9.9% | +910 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | Yes | 98 | Daniel Lynch | 9.8% | +925 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | No | 101 | James Kaprielian | 9.5% | +955 |
| Trey Mancini | HOU | No | 101 | James Kaprielian | 9.5% | +955 |
| TJ Friedl | CIN | Yes | 97 | Miles Mikolas | 9.3% | +975 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | MIA | No | 90 | Noah Syndergaard | 9.2% | +985 |
| Michael Taylor | KC | No | 98 | Dylan Bundy | 9.2% | +985 |
| David Peralta | TB | Yes | 94 | Kevin Gausman | 9.1% | +1005 |
| Corey Dickerson | STL | Yes | 97 | Chase Anderson | 8.6% | +1070 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | PIT | No | 98 | Carlos Carrasco | 8.5% | +1085 |
| Wander Franco | TB | Yes | 94 | Kevin Gausman | 8.3% | +1105 |
| JJ Bleday | MIA | Yes | 92 | Noah Syndergaard | 8.1% | +1125 |
| Cody Thomas | OAK | Yes | 102 | Lance McCullers | 8.1% | +1130 |
| Jose Azocar | SD | No | 93 | Drey Jameson | 8.1% | +1140 |
| Michael Massey | KC | Yes | 99 | Dylan Bundy | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Ramon Laureano | OAK | No | 101 | Lance McCullers | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Shea Langeliers | OAK | No | 101 | Lance McCullers | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | No | 90 | Noah Syndergaard | 7.8% | +1180 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | No | 90 | Pablo Lopez | 7.8% | +1180 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | No | 98 | JT Brubaker | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Wil Myers | SD | No | 93 | Drey Jameson | 7.3% | +1265 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | No | 93 | Drey Jameson | 7.3% | +1265 |
| Spencer Steer | CIN | No | 91 | Miles Mikolas | 7.2% | +1295 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | Yes | 97 | Chase Anderson | 7.0% | +1335 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | Yes | 103 | Lance Lynn | 6.5% | +1435 |
