3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/19/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rafael Devers To Hit a Home Run (+285)/Tommy Pham To Hit a Home Run (+390)
The Sox are in Baltimore where we see some very favorable hitting weather, which is always an added plus for home runs. They are going up against Jordan Lyles, a pitcher who struggles with fly balls, making him an ideal candidate to give up home runs.
This season, Lyles is allowing a .519 SLG, .374 wOBA, 4.55 xFIP, 1.80 HR/9, and 41.4% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters.
That leads us to Rafael Devers, who comes in with a 167 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .299 ISO, 41.7% fly-ball rate, and 39.5% hard-contact rate against righties.
When it comes to Lyles versus right-handed hitters, he is allowing a .405 SLG, .322 wOBA, 4.45 xFIP, and an identical 41.4% fly-ball rate, but he's only allowing 0.84 HR/9. He has the same fly-ball rate allowed, yet allows a full home run less per nine innings. That HR/9 versus righties is also better than what he posted last season (2.00 HR/9) and better than his career average (1.30 HR/9).
Lyles is dues for some regression against right-handed hitters -- it's that simple.
Tommy Pham is an option for a home run tonight, and his stats need an explanation. For the season, Pham is carrying an 81 wRC+, .292 wOBA, .132 ISO, 39.4% hard-contact rate, and 34.3% fly-ball rate when facing right-handers.
Those are average-to-below-average numbers overall, but they have gotten better since he joined the Red Sox. In the month of August versus righties, Pham has a 104 wRC+, .179 ISO, .319 wOBA, 47.5% hard-contact rate, and 30.0% fly-ball rate. He certainly has some pop in the bat and can get it done versus Lyles.
Of course, we should also add Devers To Record an RBI (+120) and Pham To Record an RBI (+165).
Brady Singer Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Brady Singer has a plus matchup and is looking great these days.
On the season, Singer has a 25.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% swinging-strike rate, but he's taken that to another level recently. In his five starts since the All-Star break, Singer has posted strikeout rates of 52.2%, 41.7%, and 31.8% in three starts. When it comes to swinging-strike rate, he was at 17.0%, 14.1%, and 16.7% in those same three starts.
A late-season surge for a young pitcher is always great to see, especially when he has an easy matchup in front of him. Singer is taking on the Tampa Bay Rays, who come in with a 24.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. It's exactly the matchup you want to see for a pitcher who is peaking right now.
Jake Fraley To Record an RBI (+170)
This might be a bit of an off-the-board play, but Jake Fraley has a great matchup tonight.
Fraley certainly isn't a household name in MLB, but he has very strong numbers we want to buy into. This season, Fraley is sporting a 147 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .264 ISO, and 35.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Those are noticeably strong numbers considering his RBI prop is sitting at +170.
He will be taking on Bryse Wilson, who is allowing a .625 SLG, .435 wOBA, 4.90 xFIP, 2.03 HR/9, 45.9% hard-contact rate, and 35.2% fly-ball rate against left-handed batters. No matter how you slice it, those are bad numbers, putting Fraley in a great spot.
Considering this is the Cincinnati Reds' offense we're talking about, I'll go to a very small sprinkle on Fraley 2+ RBI (+650). The Reds aren't the best team -- we all know this -- but that's a huge number for such a favorable matchup.