MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/8/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 8.0 (-105): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Two meh offenses square off tonight, but each gets to face a poor pitcher. Our model sees the bats winning out.
Anibal Sanchez is pitching for the Washington Nationals. Prior to this campaign, we last saw Sanchez in 2020, and he wasn't any good. Things are no different so far through 20 MLB frames this season, as he sports a 5.01 SIERA and 17.0% strikeout rate. He's giving up a 38.1% hard-hit rate and 46.0% fly-ball rate, leading to 2.70 jacks per nine.
The Chicago Cubs' offense should have a lot of success today, and we project them to score 5.70 runs. We shouldn't need too much from the Nats' offense to get us to the over.
Washington is actually a solid 10th in wOBA (.314) over the last 14 days. They're unlikely to maintain it the rest of the way, but Washington can have a good night versus Keegan Thompson. The Cubs' right-hander owns a 21.2% strikeout rate and surrenders a 40.1% fly-ball rate. We have Washington pushing across 4.46 runs.
So that's 10.16 total runs -- well clear of the listed 8.0-run total. Despite some pitcher-friendly winds, our algorithm gives the over a 64.0% chance to hit, rating it as a four-star play (four-unit recommendation).
Seattle Moneyline (+100): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle. He's having a really nice year, boasting a 3.89 SIERA. While the Yanks rocked Gilbert last week for three taters and six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings, that was Gilbert's worst outing of the year. He hadn't permitted more than four earned runs in a game prior to that start, and he'd been tagged for just one dinger over his previous three outings. He should fare better today.
Jameson Taillon is up for New York. Taillon has cooled since a hot start. Across his last eight appearances, he's recorded a pedestrian 21.5% strikeout rate with a 4.30 xFIP. He's given up multiple homers in half of those eight starts en route to allowing 28 earned runs in 40 1/3 frames.
The Yankees are priced as -118 favorites, but our model has Seattle winning this game 52.2% of the time. Taking the M's on the moneyline is a one-star wager.