MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 8/5/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
MILRobert
Dugger
9.05.2843.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
PHIJosiah
Gray
9.05.1040.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
HOUBryan
Shaw
8.54.8936.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
TBBryan
Garcia
8.54.8936.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
BALMitch
Keller
8.54.6331.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
LADSean
Manaea
8.54.6231.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
NYYDakota
Hudson
8.54.6031.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
BOSZack
Greinke
9.04.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
NYMIan
Anderson
8.54.5029.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
CHWGlenn
Otto
8.04.4829.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
ARIGerman
Marquez
8.54.4729.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
KCJosh
Winckowski
9.04.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
TORTyler
Mahle
8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
MINJose
Berrios
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
SEAPatrick
Sandoval
7.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
COLMadison
Bumgarner
8.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
ATLTaijuan
Walker
8.54.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
STLNestor
Cortes
8.53.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
WSHKyle
Gibson
9.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
SDTony
Gonsolin
8.53.8819.6%9.9%4.4%1.8%0.7%
PITDean
Kremer
8.53.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
CINEric
Lauer
9.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
CLEFramber
Valdez
8.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
DETCorey
Kluber
8.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
TEXDylan
Cease
8.03.5214.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
LAARobbie
Ray
7.02.947.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Dylan
Cease
TEX7.192.5%83.9%71.6%56.9%42.1%28.8%18.3%
Robbie
Ray
LAA6.689.3%78.4%64.1%48.4%33.8%21.7%12.9%
Tyler
Mahle
TOR6.387.3%75.2%60.0%44.0%29.7%18.4%10.5%
Robert
Dugger
MIL6.186.0%73.2%57.5%41.5%27.4%16.6%9.3%
Sean
Manaea
LAD6.084.5%71.0%54.8%38.7%25.1%14.9%8.1%
Eric
Lauer
CIN5.681.3%66.2%49.3%33.4%20.7%11.7%6.1%
Framber
Valdez
CLE5.680.7%65.5%48.5%32.7%20.0%11.3%5.8%
Tony
Gonsolin
SD5.579.6%63.9%46.8%31.1%18.8%10.4%5.3%
Nestor
Cortes
STL5.479.1%63.3%46.1%30.5%18.3%10.1%5.1%
Jose
Berrios
MIN5.478.7%62.7%45.4%29.8%17.8%9.7%4.9%
Patrick
Sandoval
SEA5.478.3%62.2%44.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
Taijuan
Walker
ATL5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
Josiah
Gray
PHI5.275.7%58.7%41.2%26.2%15.1%7.9%3.8%
Madison
Bumgarner
COL5.174.3%57.0%39.5%24.7%14.0%7.2%3.4%
Ian
Anderson
NYM5.174.2%56.8%39.3%24.5%13.9%7.1%3.4%
Justin
Steele
MIA4.971.5%53.5%35.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
Corey
Kluber
DET4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Kyle
Gibson
WSH4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
Glenn
Otto
CHW4.463.4%44.1%27.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
Dean
Kremer
PIT4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
German
Marquez
ARI4.361.7%42.4%25.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
Mitch
Keller
BAL4.361.4%42.0%25.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
Dakota
Hudson
NYY3.852.0%32.6%18.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
Josh
Winckowski
KC3.750.2%30.9%16.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
Nick
Neidert
CHC3.648.7%29.5%15.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
Zack
Greinke
BOS3.648.1%29.0%15.3%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Bryan
Garcia
TB3.443.7%25.2%12.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
Bryan
Shaw
HOU1.23.5%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Josiah
Gray
29.1%+245
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Josiah
Gray
26.6%+275
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo98Tyler
Mahle
26.0%+285
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes103Bryan
Shaw
25.5%+290
Byron
Buxton
MINNo98Jose
Berrios
24.3%+310
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes110Dean
Kremer
23.7%+320
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Mitch
Keller
23.2%+330
Vladimir
Guerrero Jr.
TORNo98Tyler
Mahle
23.0%+335
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Nick
Neidert
22.8%+340
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Nick
Neidert
22.8%+340
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes92Zack
Greinke
21.9%+355
Mookie
Betts
LADYes107Sean
Manaea
21.8%+360
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes97Dakota
Hudson
21.8%+360
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes103Bryan
Shaw
21.7%+360
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo99Bryan
Shaw
21.2%+370
Salvador
Perez
KCNo92Josh
Winckowski
21.1%+375
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Robert
Dugger
20.8%+380
Darick
Hall
PHIYes106Josiah
Gray
20.4%+390
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes91Nestor
Cortes
20.4%+390
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes91Nestor
Cortes
20.4%+390
C.J.
Cron
COLYes93Madison
Bumgarner
20.2%+395
Bobby
Witt Jr.
KCNo92Josh
Winckowski
20.1%+395
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCNo103Nick
Neidert
19.7%+410
Brandon
Drury
SDNo107Tony
Gonsolin
19.6%+410
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Jose
Berrios
19.5%+415
Eugenio
Suarez
SEAYes99Patrick
Sandoval
19.5%+415
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo91Dakota
Hudson
19.5%+415
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Robert
Dugger
18.5%+440
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Robert
Dugger
18.5%+440
Matt
Chapman
TORNo98Tyler
Mahle
18.4%+445
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo102Sean
Manaea
18.3%+445
Max
Stassi
LAAYes99Robbie
Ray
18.3%+445
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes99Framber
Valdez
18.3%+445
Matt
Olson
ATLYes95Taijuan
Walker
18.3%+445
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo98Taijuan
Walker
17.8%+460
George
Springer
TORNo98Tyler
Mahle
17.8%+460
Christian
Walker
ARINo93German
Marquez
17.7%+465
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes94Bryan
Garcia
17.6%+470
Trent
Grisham
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
17.5%+470
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo96Robbie
Ray
17.5%+470
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Robert
Dugger
17.3%+480
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Nick
Neidert
17.3%+480
Joey
Votto
CINNo101Eric
Lauer
17.2%+480
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes99Jose
Berrios
17.1%+485
Jared
Walsh
LAANo96Robbie
Ray
17.0%+490
Juan
Soto
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
16.9%+495
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo99Bryan
Shaw
16.8%+495
Trea
Turner
LADYes107Sean
Manaea
16.7%+500
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Dylan
Cease
16.7%+500
Austin
Riley
ATLNo98Taijuan
Walker
16.6%+500
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes94Bryan
Garcia
16.4%+510
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Josh
Winckowski
16.1%+520
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99German
Marquez
15.8%+530
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo92Zack
Greinke
15.8%+530
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Josh
Winckowski
15.8%+530
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Mitch
Keller
15.8%+535
Joey
Gallo
LADNo102Sean
Manaea
15.7%+535
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes103Justin
Steele
15.5%+545
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Dylan
Cease
15.4%+550
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Mitch
Keller
15.1%+560
Ty
France
SEAYes99Patrick
Sandoval
15.0%+565
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Mitch
Keller
15.0%+565
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Dylan
Cease
15.0%+565
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo99Bryan
Shaw
14.9%+570
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Bryan
Garcia
14.9%+570
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Josiah
Gray
14.8%+575
Luke
Voit
WSHNo110Kyle
Gibson
14.8%+575
Max
Muncy
LADNo102Sean
Manaea
14.6%+585
David
Peralta
TBYes94Bryan
Garcia
14.5%+585
Manny
Machado
SDNo107Tony
Gonsolin
14.5%+590
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo95Glenn
Otto
14.4%+595
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes110Dean
Kremer
14.4%+595
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes99Patrick
Sandoval
14.4%+595
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
14.2%+605
Danny
Jansen
TORNo98Tyler
Mahle
14.1%+610
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Jose
Berrios
14.1%+610
Nick
Fortes
MIAYes103Justin
Steele
14.1%+610
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo110Kyle
Gibson
14.1%+610
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Dylan
Cease
14.1%+610
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Ian
Anderson
14.0%+615
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo91Dakota
Hudson
13.9%+620
Will
Smith
LADYes107Sean
Manaea
13.8%+625
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo95Glenn
Otto
13.8%+625
Luis
Robert
CHWNo95Glenn
Otto
13.8%+625
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes99Patrick
Sandoval
13.6%+635
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Ian
Anderson
13.4%+650
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95Ian
Anderson
13.4%+650
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo91Dakota
Hudson
13.3%+655
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Corey
Kluber
13.3%+655
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes106Kyle
Gibson
13.2%+660
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99German
Marquez
13.2%+660
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes93Madison
Bumgarner
12.9%+675
Jo
Adell
LAAYes99Robbie
Ray
12.9%+675
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Corey
Kluber
12.9%+675
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Mitch
Keller
12.8%+680
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Ian
Anderson
12.8%+680
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo98Tyler
Mahle
12.8%+680
Michael
Harris II
ATLYes95Taijuan
Walker
12.7%+685
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo103Robert
Dugger
12.6%+690
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo110Kyle
Gibson
12.6%+695
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo99Madison
Bumgarner
12.5%+700
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes99Robbie
Ray
12.2%+720
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo92Zack
Greinke
12.1%+725
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo98Taijuan
Walker
12.1%+725
Bo
Bichette
TORNo98Tyler
Mahle
12.1%+725
Jonathan
India
CINYes103Eric
Lauer
11.8%+745
Lars
Nootbaar
STLNo97Nestor
Cortes
11.7%+755
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes93Madison
Bumgarner
11.5%+765
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo91Dakota
Hudson
11.3%+780
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes110Dean
Kremer
11.2%+790
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes101Glenn
Otto
11.2%+795
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo95Glenn
Otto
11.1%+800
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99German
Marquez
11.0%+810
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo92Zack
Greinke
10.8%+825
Christian
Vazquez
HOUNo99Bryan
Shaw
10.8%+830
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Jose
Berrios
10.7%+835
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo98Taijuan
Walker
10.7%+835
David
Fletcher
LAAYes99Robbie
Ray
10.7%+840
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Robert
Dugger
10.4%+860
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Nick
Neidert
10.4%+860
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo95Glenn
Otto
10.4%+860
Eric
Hosmer
BOSYes92Zack
Greinke
10.3%+870
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Josh
Winckowski
10.3%+870
Donovan
Solano
CINYes103Eric
Lauer
10.2%+880
Albert
Almora Jr.
CINYes103Eric
Lauer
10.2%+880
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Josiah
Gray
10.2%+880
Carson
Kelly
ARINo93German
Marquez
10.2%+880
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Josiah
Gray
10.1%+890
Jose
Siri
TBNo99Bryan
Garcia
10.0%+895
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Nick
Neidert
10.0%+900
Taylor
Walls
TBYes94Bryan
Garcia
9.8%+920
Jesse
Winker
SEANo96Patrick
Sandoval
9.7%+925
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo95Glenn
Otto
9.7%+935
Victor
Caratini
MILYes101Robert
Dugger
9.7%+935
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Robert
Dugger
9.6%+940
Kevin
Newman
PITNo112Dean
Kremer
9.5%+950
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes99German
Marquez
9.5%+955
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo92Zack
Greinke
9.4%+965
Miguel
Rojas
MIAYes103Justin
Steele
9.4%+965
Bryan
De La Cruz
MIAYes103Justin
Steele
9.4%+965
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo110Kyle
Gibson
9.4%+965
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo99Bryan
Garcia
9.3%+975
Paul
DeJong
STLYes91Nestor
Cortes
9.1%+995
Tyler
O'Neill
STLYes91Nestor
Cortes
9.1%+995
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes95Taijuan
Walker
9.1%+995
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes99Robbie
Ray
9.1%+1005
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Dylan
Cease
9.0%+1015
Josh
Bell
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
8.9%+1020
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes92Zack
Greinke
8.9%+1025
P.J.
Higgins
CHCNo103Nick
Neidert
8.8%+1030
Jason
Delay
PITNo112Dean
Kremer
8.7%+1055
Jose
Iglesias
COLYes93Madison
Bumgarner
8.6%+1070
Aaron
Hicks
NYYYes97Dakota
Hudson
8.6%+1070
Matt
Reynolds
CINYes103Eric
Lauer
8.5%+1070
Charles
Leblanc
MIAYes103Justin
Steele
8.5%+1070
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo99Bryan
Shaw
8.5%+1070
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes106Josiah
Gray
8.4%+1085
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo103Framber
Valdez
8.4%+1095
Victor
Reyes
DETYes94Corey
Kluber
8.3%+1105
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo102Sean
Manaea
8.3%+1105
Austin
Hedges
CLEYes99Framber
Valdez
8.2%+1115
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes92Josh
Winckowski
8.1%+1125
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes99German
Marquez
7.9%+1165
Mark
Contreras
MINYes99Jose
Berrios
7.9%+1165
Connor
Joe
COLYes93Madison
Bumgarner
7.8%+1185
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo99Bryan
Shaw
7.7%+1190
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo99Bryan
Garcia
7.7%+1190
Starling
Marte
NYMNo98Ian
Anderson
7.7%+1205
Tomas
Nido
NYMNo98Ian
Anderson
7.7%+1205
Nick
Senzel
CINYes103Eric
Lauer
7.7%+1205
Aristides
Aquino
CINYes103Eric
Lauer
7.7%+1205
Maikel
Franco
WSHNo110Kyle
Gibson
7.7%+1205
Albert
Pujols
STLYes91Nestor
Cortes
7.6%+1210
Tommy
Edman
STLYes91Nestor
Cortes
7.6%+1210
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes106Kyle
Gibson
7.6%+1220
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo107Tony
Gonsolin
7.5%+1240
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo95Dylan
Cease
7.5%+1240
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo99Madison
Bumgarner
7.4%+1255
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
7.3%+1270
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Robert
Dugger
7.2%+1280
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Nick
Neidert
7.2%+1285
Elias
Diaz
COLYes93Madison
Bumgarner
7.0%+1335
Ben
Gamel
PITYes110Dean
Kremer
6.9%+1345
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Mitch
Keller
6.9%+1345
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo112Dean
Kremer
6.9%+1350
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo98Jose
Berrios
6.9%+1350
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes103Eric
Lauer
6.8%+1375
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes106Kyle
Gibson
6.7%+1395
Myles
Straw
CLEYes99Framber
Valdez
6.5%+1430
Kyle
Lewis
SEAYes99Patrick
Sandoval
6.5%+1430
Jarred
Kelenic
SEANo96Patrick
Sandoval
6.5%+1435
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo91Dakota
Hudson
6.4%+1455
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101Dylan
Cease
6.4%+1465
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes101Glenn
Otto
6.4%+1465