MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 7/27/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
CHWAntonio
Senzatela
11.56.0656.4%40.3%26.4%15.9%8.8%
LADPatrick
Corbin
9.05.5347.6%31.9%19.4%10.8%5.5%
COLLucas
Giolito
11.55.4446.1%30.5%18.3%10.1%5.1%
KCJanson
Junk
9.04.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
TORAdam
Wainwright
8.04.7734.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
BOSCal
Quantrill
9.04.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
ATLKyle
Gibson
8.54.6031.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
MILChris
Archer
8.04.5831.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
NYMDomingo
German
8.04.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
CINBraxton
Garrett
8.04.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
CLENathan
Eovaldi
9.04.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
HOUCole
Irvin
7.54.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
LAABrad
Keller
9.04.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
TBTyler
Wells
8.04.0822.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
TEXMarco
Gonzales
8.04.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
SDTarik
Skubal
7.53.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
SEAJon
Gray
8.03.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
BALDrew
Rasmussen
8.03.9220.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
PHICharlie
Morton
8.53.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
SFZac
Gallen
7.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
ARILogan
Webb
7.53.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
MIALuis
Castillo
8.03.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
NYYMax
Scherzer
8.03.6015.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
DETYu
Darvish
7.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
WSHAndrew
Heaney
9.03.4713.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
MINCorbin
Burnes
8.03.4213.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
OAKCristian
Javier
7.53.2310.9%4.6%1.8%0.6%0.2%
STLKevin
Gausman
8.03.2310.9%4.6%1.8%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Scherzer
NYY7.895.2%88.9%79.1%66.3%52.0%38.1%26.0%
Corbin
Burnes
MIN7.593.9%86.5%75.4%61.6%46.9%33.3%21.9%
Andrew
Heaney
WSH7.092.0%83.1%70.4%55.6%40.7%27.6%17.4%
Charlie
Morton
PHI6.890.6%80.6%67.0%51.7%36.9%24.3%14.8%
Cristian
Javier
OAK6.790.1%79.8%65.9%50.5%35.7%23.3%14.0%
Luis
Castillo
MIA6.789.8%79.3%65.2%49.7%34.9%22.7%13.6%
Kevin
Gausman
STL6.488.3%76.7%61.9%46.1%31.6%19.9%11.6%
Yu
Darvish
DET6.286.5%74.0%58.4%42.4%28.3%17.3%9.8%
Jon
Gray
SEA5.984.2%70.4%54.1%38.1%24.5%14.5%7.9%
Nathan
Eovaldi
CLE5.782.3%67.7%51.0%35.0%22.0%12.6%6.7%
Lucas
Giolito
COL5.580.1%64.6%47.5%31.7%19.3%10.7%5.5%
Logan
Webb
ARI5.579.5%63.8%46.6%30.9%18.7%10.3%5.2%
Tarik
Skubal
SD5.479.1%63.3%46.1%30.5%18.3%10.1%5.1%
Patrick
Corbin
LAD4.769.7%51.3%33.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
Zac
Gallen
SF4.769.5%51.1%33.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
Braxton
Garrett
CIN4.769.3%50.9%33.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
Adam
Wainwright
TOR4.564.9%45.8%28.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
Drew
Rasmussen
BAL4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Cole
Irvin
HOU4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Kyle
Gibson
ATL4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Cal
Quantrill
BOS4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Brad
Keller
LAA4.157.8%38.3%22.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
Marco
Gonzales
TEX4.056.3%36.7%21.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
Domingo
German
NYM4.055.7%36.1%20.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Tyler
Wells
TB3.649.1%29.9%16.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
Antonio
Senzatela
CHW3.546.8%27.8%14.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
Chris
Archer
MIL3.444.6%26.0%13.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Janson
Junk
KC3.443.7%25.2%12.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Lucas
Giolito
25.9%+285
Austin
Riley
ATLNo110Kyle
Gibson
24.8%+305
Mookie
Betts
LADYes107Patrick
Corbin
24.5%+310
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo98Max
Scherzer
23.5%+325
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Cal
Quantrill
23.2%+330
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
23.0%+335
Matt
Olson
ATLYes106Kyle
Gibson
22.6%+340
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
21.7%+360
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Domingo
German
21.6%+365
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Adam
Wainwright
21.0%+375
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Chris
Archer
20.8%+380
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Chris
Archer
20.8%+380
Joc
Pederson
SFYes99Zac
Gallen
20.5%+385
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Chris
Archer
20.2%+395
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes92Brad
Keller
20.0%+400
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Charlie
Morton
19.5%+415
Trea
Turner
LADYes107Patrick
Corbin
19.4%+415
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Adam
Wainwright
19.4%+415
Darick
Hall
PHIYes106Charlie
Morton
19.3%+420
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes110Tyler
Wells
19.2%+420
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
18.9%+430
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Adam
Wainwright
18.8%+430
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes94Cole
Irvin
18.7%+435
Joey
Votto
CINNo113Braxton
Garrett
18.7%+435
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes92Brad
Keller
18.4%+445
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes95Max
Scherzer
18.3%+445
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo110Kyle
Gibson
18.2%+450
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Charlie
Morton
18.0%+455
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Jon
Gray
18.0%+455
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Domingo
German
17.7%+465
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo110Kyle
Gibson
17.6%+470
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo112Tyler
Wells
17.1%+485
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Drew
Rasmussen
17.1%+485
Brandon
Belt
SFYes99Zac
Gallen
17.1%+485
George
Springer
TORNo101Adam
Wainwright
17.0%+485
Corey
Seager
TEXNo96Marco
Gonzales
17.0%+490
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo102Patrick
Corbin
16.8%+495
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Drew
Rasmussen
16.5%+505
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Drew
Rasmussen
16.5%+505
Brandon
Drury
CINYes111Braxton
Garrett
16.5%+505
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Drew
Rasmussen
16.5%+505
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUNo92Cole
Irvin
16.4%+510
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Adam
Wainwright
16.4%+510
Luke
Voit
SDYes99Tarik
Skubal
16.4%+510
Maikel
Franco
WSHYes107Andrew
Heaney
16.0%+525
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo108Antonio
Senzatela
16.0%+525
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Adam
Wainwright
15.8%+535
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo110Kyle
Gibson
15.5%+545
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Janson
Junk
15.5%+545
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo93Zac
Gallen
15.4%+550
Matt
Carpenter
NYYYes95Max
Scherzer
15.3%+555
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes107Patrick
Corbin
15.3%+555
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes94Kevin
Gausman
15.2%+560
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes94Cole
Irvin
15.1%+565
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
15.0%+565
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Lucas
Giolito
15.0%+565
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Jon
Gray
14.9%+570
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Jon
Gray
14.8%+575
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes101Corbin
Burnes
14.8%+575
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes106Kyle
Gibson
14.7%+580
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo108Antonio
Senzatela
14.6%+585
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo102Patrick
Corbin
14.6%+585
Juan
Soto
WSHNo102Andrew
Heaney
14.6%+585
Will
Smith
LADYes107Patrick
Corbin
14.6%+585
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Adam
Wainwright
14.5%+590
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes94Cole
Irvin
14.4%+595
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes110Tyler
Wells
14.4%+595
Manny
Machado
SDYes99Tarik
Skubal
14.4%+595
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo94Cristian
Javier
14.3%+600
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Nathan
Eovaldi
14.2%+600
Austin
Slater
SFNo93Zac
Gallen
14.1%+605
Starling
Marte
NYMNo98Domingo
German
14.1%+610
Carlos
Correa
MINNo103Corbin
Burnes
14.0%+610
Gio
Urshela
MINNo103Corbin
Burnes
14.0%+610
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Chris
Archer
14.0%+610
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95Domingo
German
14.0%+615
Taylor
Ward
LAANo92Brad
Keller
14.0%+615
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Yu
Darvish
13.9%+620
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes94Cole
Irvin
13.7%+625
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes99Tarik
Skubal
13.6%+635
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Drew
Rasmussen
13.6%+635
Max
Muncy
LADNo102Patrick
Corbin
13.4%+645
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo110Kyle
Gibson
13.4%+650
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo103Chris
Archer
13.3%+650
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99Logan
Webb
13.2%+660
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo108Antonio
Senzatela
13.1%+660
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Lucas
Giolito
13.1%+660
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
13.1%+660
Joey
Bart
SFNo93Zac
Gallen
12.9%+675
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo92Cole
Irvin
12.8%+680
Max
Stassi
LAANo92Brad
Keller
12.8%+685
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Domingo
German
12.7%+685
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo103Corbin
Burnes
12.6%+690
Tommy
Pham
CINYes111Braxton
Garrett
12.6%+695
Connor
Joe
COLNo108Lucas
Giolito
12.4%+705
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes92Brad
Keller
12.4%+710
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Logan
Webb
12.2%+720
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Yu
Darvish
12.2%+720
Ty
France
SEANo99Jon
Gray
12.2%+720
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
12.2%+720
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo98Max
Scherzer
12.1%+725
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo98Max
Scherzer
12.1%+725
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Drew
Rasmussen
12.1%+730
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo112Tyler
Wells
12.0%+735
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Drew
Rasmussen
12.0%+735
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Charlie
Morton
11.8%+745
Jonathan
India
CINYes111Braxton
Garrett
11.8%+750
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Cristian
Javier
11.7%+755
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo96Marco
Gonzales
11.6%+765
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Janson
Junk
11.5%+775
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
11.4%+775
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes107Andrew
Heaney
11.4%+775
Josh
Bell
WSHYes107Andrew
Heaney
11.4%+775
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes107Andrew
Heaney
11.4%+775
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo98Max
Scherzer
11.4%+775
Brett
Phillips
TBYes110Tyler
Wells
11.2%+790
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Chris
Archer
11.2%+795
Max
Kepler
MINYes101Corbin
Burnes
11.2%+795
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
11.1%+800
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIANo111Luis
Castillo
11.1%+800
Albert
Pujols
STLNo101Kevin
Gausman
11.0%+810
Darin
Ruf
SFNo93Zac
Gallen
10.9%+820
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Charlie
Morton
10.9%+820
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo108Antonio
Senzatela
10.8%+820
Jo
Adell
LAANo92Brad
Keller
10.8%+825
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Jon
Gray
10.7%+835
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes113Luis
Castillo
10.7%+835
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes94Kevin
Gausman
10.5%+850
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Drew
Rasmussen
10.4%+865
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes109Antonio
Senzatela
10.3%+865
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Lucas
Giolito
10.3%+865
David
Peralta
ARIYes99Logan
Webb
10.3%+875
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUYes94Cole
Irvin
10.2%+885
Emmanuel
Rivera
KCNo92Janson
Junk
10.1%+890
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo108Antonio
Senzatela
10.0%+895
Elias
Diaz
COLNo108Lucas
Giolito
10.0%+895
Tomas
Nido
NYMNo98Domingo
German
10.0%+905
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo98Max
Scherzer
10.0%+905
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
9.9%+915
Harold
Castro
DETYes94Yu
Darvish
9.8%+920
Hanser
Alberto
LADYes107Patrick
Corbin
9.7%+930
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Chris
Archer
9.6%+940
Jose
Miranda
MINNo103Corbin
Burnes
9.6%+940
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes92Brad
Keller
9.6%+940
Josh
Lowe
TBYes110Tyler
Wells
9.6%+945
Jake
Cronenworth
SDNo94Tarik
Skubal
9.6%+945
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo112Tyler
Wells
9.5%+950
Sam
Hilliard
COLYes109Lucas
Giolito
9.5%+955
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes99Logan
Webb
9.5%+955
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSNo99Cal
Quantrill
9.3%+975
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes106Kyle
Gibson
9.3%+980
Kris
Bryant
COLNo108Lucas
Giolito
9.2%+985
Mark
Canha
NYMNo98Domingo
German
9.2%+985
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes93Cal
Quantrill
9.0%+1015
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes92Janson
Junk
8.9%+1025
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo94Cristian
Javier
8.9%+1025
Chad
Pinder
OAKNo94Cristian
Javier
8.9%+1025
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Logan
Webb
8.7%+1050
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo101Kevin
Gausman
8.7%+1050
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo111Luis
Castillo
8.6%+1065
Kyle
Lewis
SEANo99Jon
Gray
8.5%+1070
Aaron
Hicks
NYYYes95Max
Scherzer
8.4%+1090
Elier
Hernandez
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
8.2%+1115
Skye
Bolt
OAKYes92Cristian
Javier
8.1%+1125
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Chris
Archer
8.1%+1140
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes101Chris
Archer
8.1%+1140
Nick
Gordon
MINYes101Corbin
Burnes
8.1%+1140
Carson
Kelly
ARINo93Logan
Webb
8.1%+1140
Michael
Taylor
KCNo92Janson
Junk
8.0%+1155
Whit
Merrifield
KCNo92Janson
Junk
8.0%+1155
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes107Andrew
Heaney
7.9%+1160
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99Logan
Webb
7.9%+1165
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo101Adam
Wainwright
7.9%+1165
Chas
McCormick
HOUYes94Cole
Irvin
7.9%+1175
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo99Cal
Quantrill
7.7%+1190
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Nathan
Eovaldi
7.7%+1190
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo111Luis
Castillo
7.7%+1195
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes94Kevin
Gausman
7.5%+1225
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Janson
Junk
7.4%+1250
Jorge
Alfaro
SDYes99Tarik
Skubal
7.4%+1255
Donovan
Solano
CINYes111Braxton
Garrett
7.3%+1275
Matt
Reynolds
CINYes111Braxton
Garrett
7.3%+1275
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes111Braxton
Garrett
7.3%+1275
Ehire
Adrianza
WSHYes107Andrew
Heaney
7.0%+1325
Luke
Raley
TBYes110Tyler
Wells
6.9%+1345
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Jon
Gray
6.9%+1350
Trey
Mancini
BALNo112Drew
Rasmussen
6.9%+1350
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Charlie
Morton
6.8%+1375
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Charlie
Morton
6.8%+1375
Tommy
Edman
STLYes94Kevin
Gausman
6.8%+1375
Jackie
Bradley
BOSYes93Cal
Quantrill
6.7%+1390
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Cal
Quantrill
6.7%+1390
Odubel
Herrera
PHIYes106Charlie
Morton
6.7%+1395
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo108Antonio
Senzatela
6.7%+1400
Charlie
Culberson
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
6.5%+1430
Mike
Papierski
CINYes111Braxton
Garrett
6.3%+1490
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes99Logan
Webb
6.3%+1495