MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 7/25/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADPaolo
Espino
8.55.2643.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
CINTrevor
Rogers
9.54.9537.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
MILKyle
Freeland
8.54.8435.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
CLENick
Pivetta
9.54.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
HOUAdam
Oller
8.04.7233.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
ATLRanger
Suarez
8.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
BOSZach
Plesac
9.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
TBAustin
Voth
9.04.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
SFTyler
Gilbert
9.04.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
SEAGlenn
Otto
8.54.6532.3%18.9%9.9%4.8%2.1%
CHCJT
Brubaker
8.54.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
MIANick
Lodolo
9.54.5530.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
SDDrew
Hutchison
8.04.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
KCNoah
Syndergaard
8.54.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
ARIJakob
Junis
9.04.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
BALCorey
Kluber
9.04.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
LAAZack
Greinke
8.54.1724.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
PITAdrian
Sampson
8.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
TEXChris
Flexen
8.53.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
PHIMax
Fried
8.53.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
COLAaron
Ashby
8.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
DETSean
Manaea
8.03.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
OAKJake
Odorizzi
8.03.2811.5%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
WSHTony
Gonsolin
8.53.2411.0%4.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Fried
PHI6.588.5%77.1%62.4%46.6%32.0%20.3%11.8%
Nick
Pivetta
CLE6.185.3%72.2%56.2%40.2%26.3%15.8%8.7%
Sean
Manaea
DET6.085.1%71.9%55.9%39.9%26.0%15.6%8.6%
JT
Brubaker
CHC5.882.9%68.6%52.0%36.0%22.8%13.2%7.0%
Aaron
Ashby
COL5.579.8%64.2%47.1%31.4%19.1%10.6%5.4%
Tony
Gonsolin
WSH5.478.7%62.7%45.4%29.8%17.8%9.7%4.9%
Nick
Lodolo
MIA5.276.7%60.1%42.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
Corey
Kluber
BAL4.972.1%54.2%36.6%22.3%12.3%6.2%2.8%
Ranger
Suarez
ATL4.871.0%52.9%35.4%21.3%11.6%5.8%2.6%
Chris
Flexen
TEX4.769.5%51.1%33.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
Adrian
Sampson
PIT4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
Trevor
Rogers
CIN4.464.6%45.5%28.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
Zach
Plesac
BOS4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Jake
Odorizzi
OAK4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Noah
Syndergaard
KC4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Kyle
Freeland
MIL4.158.0%38.5%22.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
Glenn
Otto
SEA3.853.3%33.8%18.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
Austin
Voth
TB3.852.0%32.6%18.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
Tyler
Gilbert
SF3.546.1%27.3%14.1%6.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
Paolo
Espino
LAD3.545.5%26.7%13.7%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
Drew
Hutchison
SD3.445.0%26.3%13.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Adam
Oller
HOU3.239.7%21.9%10.5%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
Zack
Greinke
LAA3.137.1%19.8%9.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
Jakob
Junis
ARI3.136.8%19.7%9.1%3.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes92Adam
Oller
27.2%+270
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes103Kyle
Freeland
27.1%+270
Willy
Adames
MILYes103Kyle
Freeland
26.2%+280
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Paolo
Espino
23.9%+320
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes92Zack
Greinke
23.7%+320
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes92Zack
Greinke
23.3%+330
Austin
Riley
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
22.8%+340
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
22.8%+340
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo94Adam
Oller
22.3%+345
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Corey
Kluber
22.1%+350
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Corey
Kluber
21.5%+365
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo99Chris
Flexen
21.2%+370
Joey
Votto
CINNo113Trevor
Rogers
20.8%+380
Javier
Baez
DETYes99Sean
Manaea
20.6%+385
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Paolo
Espino
20.2%+395
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo112Austin
Voth
19.7%+405
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
19.7%+410
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Glenn
Otto
19.6%+410
C.J.
Cron
COLYes103Aaron
Ashby
19.5%+415
Kris
Bryant
COLYes103Aaron
Ashby
19.5%+415
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes92Adam
Oller
19.4%+415
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Paolo
Espino
19.3%+420
Tommy
Pham
CINYes111Trevor
Rogers
19.3%+420
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
19.2%+420
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes110Max
Fried
19.2%+420
Darin
Ruf
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
19.1%+420
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes96Chris
Flexen
19.0%+425
Juan
Soto
WSHYes102Tony
Gonsolin
18.7%+435
Austin
Slater
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
18.6%+440
William
Contreras
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
18.5%+440
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Glenn
Otto
18.4%+445
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo94Adam
Oller
18.3%+445
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes93Nick
Pivetta
18.0%+455
Brandon
Drury
CINYes111Trevor
Rogers
17.9%+460
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103JT
Brubaker
17.9%+460
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103JT
Brubaker
17.9%+460
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo106Max
Fried
17.8%+460
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo112Austin
Voth
17.8%+460
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo94Adam
Oller
17.2%+480
Garrett
Cooper
MIAYes111Nick
Lodolo
17.2%+480
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo107Tony
Gonsolin
17.2%+480
Trey
Mancini
BALNo112Corey
Kluber
17.1%+485
Guillermo
Heredia
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
17.1%+485
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Paolo
Espino
16.9%+495
Will
Smith
LADNo107Paolo
Espino
16.5%+505
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99Jakob
Junis
16.5%+505
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Noah
Syndergaard
16.4%+510
Luke
Voit
SDNo99Drew
Hutchison
16.2%+520
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo94Adam
Oller
16.1%+520
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes96Chris
Flexen
16.1%+525
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes110Austin
Voth
15.8%+530
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes110Austin
Voth
15.8%+530
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes111Nick
Lodolo
15.8%+535
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Corey
Kluber
15.8%+535
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
15.6%+540
Matt
Olson
ATLNo106Ranger
Suarez
15.6%+540
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes103Kyle
Freeland
15.5%+545
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo99Chris
Flexen
15.5%+545
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Jakob
Junis
15.2%+560
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes93Nick
Pivetta
15.0%+565
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Nick
Pivetta
14.9%+570
Jorge
Alfaro
SDNo99Drew
Hutchison
14.9%+570
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes103Aaron
Ashby
14.8%+575
Brandon
Belt
SFNo99Tyler
Gilbert
14.8%+575
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Jakob
Junis
14.8%+580
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Corey
Kluber
14.3%+600
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Jake
Odorizzi
14.3%+600
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103JT
Brubaker
14.0%+610
David
Peralta
ARIYes99Jakob
Junis
13.8%+620
Maikel
Franco
WSHNo107Tony
Gonsolin
13.8%+625
Eric
Haase
DETYes99Sean
Manaea
13.6%+635
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo94Adam
Oller
13.6%+635
Brett
Phillips
TBYes110Austin
Voth
13.6%+635
Josh
Lowe
TBYes110Austin
Voth
13.6%+635
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes96Adrian
Sampson
13.5%+640
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes96Chris
Flexen
13.5%+640
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Paolo
Espino
13.5%+640
Luke
Williams
MIAYes111Nick
Lodolo
13.4%+645
Emmanuel
Rivera
KCNo92Noah
Syndergaard
13.4%+645
Luis
Urias
MILYes103Kyle
Freeland
13.4%+650
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo101Aaron
Ashby
13.3%+655
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99Jakob
Junis
13.2%+660
Joey
Bart
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
12.9%+675
Manny
Machado
SDNo99Drew
Hutchison
12.9%+675
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo99Chris
Flexen
12.9%+675
Ben
Gamel
PITYes96Adrian
Sampson
12.8%+680
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Glenn
Otto
12.8%+680
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Corey
Kluber
12.8%+680
Josh
Bell
WSHYes102Tony
Gonsolin
12.8%+685
Taylor
Ward
LAANo92Zack
Greinke
12.8%+685
Max
Stassi
LAANo92Zack
Greinke
12.8%+685
Darick
Hall
PHINo106Max
Fried
12.6%+695
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes94Drew
Hutchison
12.6%+695
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
12.2%+715
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Glenn
Otto
12.2%+720
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes110Austin
Voth
12.1%+730
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103JT
Brubaker
11.9%+740
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Jake
Odorizzi
11.7%+755
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo94Jake
Odorizzi
11.7%+755
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSNo99Zach
Plesac
11.5%+770
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo99Zach
Plesac
11.5%+770
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Sean
Manaea
11.4%+775
Jake
Lamb
LADYes102Paolo
Espino
11.3%+785
Jesus
Sanchez
MIANo113Nick
Lodolo
11.3%+790
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Corey
Kluber
11.2%+790
Nolan
Jones
CLEYes93Nick
Pivetta
11.1%+800
Elias
Diaz
COLYes103Aaron
Ashby
11.0%+805
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Noah
Syndergaard
11.0%+810
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes99Jakob
Junis
11.0%+810
Mauricio
Dubon
HOUNo94Adam
Oller
11.0%+810
Ty
France
SEANo99Glenn
Otto
10.8%+830
Trayce
Thompson
LADNo107Paolo
Espino
10.8%+830
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes96Chris
Flexen
10.7%+835
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo106Ranger
Suarez
10.6%+840
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes94Drew
Hutchison
10.5%+850
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes92Zack
Greinke
10.3%+870
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes103Kyle
Freeland
10.2%+880
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes103Aaron
Ashby
10.2%+880
Luis
Gonzalez
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
10.1%+890
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Zach
Plesac
10.0%+895
Miguel
Rojas
MIAYes111Nick
Lodolo
10.0%+895
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Glenn
Otto
10.0%+900
Orlando
Arcia
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
10.0%+905
Joey
Wendle
MIANo113Nick
Lodolo
9.8%+920
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103JT
Brubaker
9.6%+940
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo101Aaron
Ashby
9.5%+950
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Noah
Syndergaard
9.4%+965
Jonathan
India
CINYes111Trevor
Rogers
9.1%+995
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes93Nick
Pivetta
9.0%+1015
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes92Zack
Greinke
8.9%+1025
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo94Adam
Oller
8.9%+1025
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo94Jake
Odorizzi
8.9%+1025
Whit
Merrifield
KCNo92Noah
Syndergaard
8.7%+1050
Kyle
Lewis
SEANo99Glenn
Otto
8.5%+1070
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Nick
Pivetta
8.5%+1070
Harold
Castro
DETNo94Sean
Manaea
8.3%+1100
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes94Drew
Hutchison
8.3%+1105
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes93Zach
Plesac
8.2%+1115
Mark
Kolozsvary
CINYes111Trevor
Rogers
8.2%+1120
Alec
Bohm
PHIYes110Max
Fried
8.1%+1130
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo103Adrian
Sampson
8.0%+1145
Jake
Marisnick
PITNo103Adrian
Sampson
8.0%+1145
Michael
Taylor
KCNo92Noah
Syndergaard
8.0%+1155
Sergio
Alcantara
ARIYes99Jakob
Junis
7.9%+1165
Robinson
Chirinos
BALNo112Corey
Kluber
7.8%+1185
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo112Austin
Voth
7.8%+1185
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Nick
Pivetta
7.7%+1190
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96JT
Brubaker
7.7%+1200
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Zach
Plesac
7.5%+1240
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes92Noah
Syndergaard
7.4%+1250
Jonathan
Schoop
DETYes99Sean
Manaea
7.4%+1255
Donovan
Solano
CINYes111Trevor
Rogers
7.3%+1275
Jason
Delay
PITNo103Adrian
Sampson
7.2%+1285
Nick
Castellanos
PHIYes110Max
Fried
7.2%+1290
Bryson
Stott
PHINo106Max
Fried
7.1%+1300
Yermin
Mercedes
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
7.0%+1335
Yoshitomo
Tsutsugo
PITYes96Adrian
Sampson
6.9%+1350
Connor
Joe
COLYes103Aaron
Ashby
6.8%+1375
Yolmer
Sanchez
BOSYes93Zach
Plesac
6.7%+1390
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes92Noah
Syndergaard
6.6%+1405
Carson
Kelly
ARINo93Jakob
Junis
6.6%+1425
Gavin
Lux
LADYes102Paolo
Espino
6.5%+1450
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes102Tony
Gonsolin
6.5%+1450
Avisail
Garcia
MIAYes111Nick
Lodolo
6.3%+1490
Jacob
Stallings
MIAYes111Nick
Lodolo
6.3%+1490