MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 7/6/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Rays Moneyline (+112): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Bello is a hotshot prospect who has posted incredible numbers this season in the minors, including a 34.4% strikeout rate and 16.2% swinging-strike rate over 51 1/3 frames at Triple-A. He does, however, have an issue with walks, recording a 10.0% walk rate in said Triple-A stint.
The Rays sit 27th in wOBA (.299) for the campaign and are a fairly inviting debut matchup for Bello. But they've been swinging it much better of late, registering a .325 wOBA (11th-best) over the last 14 days. It's also likely Bello doesn't work too deep into this one, forcing Boston's bullpen -- which is slightly below the league average for reliever xFIP (4.00) -- to shoulder a good chunk of the load.
Corey Kluber is starting for Tampa Bay. He's found the fountain of youth a bit with the Rays after posting meh numbers in 2021 with the New York Yankees. Through 76 frames, Kluber boasts a 3.79 SIERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, and 4.1% walk rate. The walk rate and SIERA are his best clips since 2018. But this bet is mostly about the Tampa Bay offense, according to our numbers.
Our model sees the Rays' offense having a lot of success today, projecting Tampa Bay for 5.61 runs. We give Tampa Bay a 57.3% chance to win, and with the Rays a +112 moneyline 'dog, there's plenty of value here. We rate taking the Rays on the moneyline as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).
Over 7.5 (-118): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
It's rare for our algorithm to assign a four-star rating to a bet, so our projections really like this one.
The Philadelphia Phillies are capable of having a huge day versus Gray. While the righty can miss bats (25.4% strikeout rate), he gives up too many free passes (10.1% walk rate) and way too many fly-balls (48.8% fly-ball rate). That's led to a home-run problem. In 151 2/3 career MLB innings, Gray has been tagged for 2.08 jacks per nine, with his walk issue only making matters worse.
Facing the Phils in a homer-happy park, Gray is likely in for a long (or short?) evening. When he departs, Gray will turn it over to a Washington Nationals 'pen that sports the seventh-worst reliever xFIP (4.31), so Philadelphia should be able to keep slugging away.
We have Phills putting up an eye-popping 6.13 runs, and if they live up to that, we barely need anything from the Nats' offense to get us to the over. And that's a good thing because Nola could mow through them. Washington is just 17th in wOBA (.307) and hasn't had Juan Soto in the starting lineup either of the past two nights.
Nola's profile is pretty dang spotless -- which is how you get to a 2.80 SIERA -- but if there's one bugaboo for him this season, it's dingers at home. He's surrendered 1.66 homers per nine in Philly this year, and we have the Nats pushing across 3.73 runs.
So, in total, we project 9.86 runs to be scored in this one -- more than two runs over the 7.5-run line. We think the over hits 69.0% of the time, and the -118 juice isn't too bad. This is our best bet of the night.