MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Tuesday 7/5/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SFTyler
Gilbert
9.55.2843.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
PHIPaolo
Espino
9.55.2342.4%27.2%15.8%8.4%4.1%
NYYJose
Quintana
9.05.1741.4%26.3%15.2%8.0%3.8%
ATLAndre
Pallante
9.55.1040.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
LADGerman
Marquez
8.55.0739.6%24.8%14.1%7.3%3.4%
CHWChris
Archer
9.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
NYMNick
Lodolo
8.54.9136.8%22.5%12.4%6.2%2.9%
CLEDrew
Hutchison
9.04.8736.1%21.9%12.0%6.0%2.7%
TEXAustin
Voth
9.54.8235.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
HOUZack
Greinke
8.04.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
BOSJeffrey
Springs
9.04.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
BALSpencer
Howard
9.54.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
MINMichael
Kopech
9.54.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
TORAdrian
Martinez
8.04.5129.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
MILKyle
Hendricks
8.54.4729.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
STLIan
Anderson
9.54.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
TBNick
Pivetta
9.04.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
WSHCristopher
Sanchez
9.54.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
ARIAlex
Wood
9.54.2225.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
DETCal
Quantrill
9.04.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
CHCJason
Alexander
8.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
PITJameson
Taillon
9.03.8318.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
MIANoah
Syndergaard
7.03.7417.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
SDLogan
Gilbert
7.03.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
CINMax
Scherzer
8.53.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
OAKYusei
Kikuchi
8.03.4914.1%6.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
COLMitch
White
8.53.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
SEAMike
Clevinger
7.03.3111.8%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
LAASandy
Alcantara
7.03.2611.2%4.8%1.9%0.6%0.2%
KCLuis
Garcia
8.03.2110.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Scherzer
CIN7.594.2%87.0%76.2%62.6%48.0%34.2%22.7%
Jeffrey
Springs
BOS7.091.8%82.6%69.8%54.9%40.0%27.0%16.8%
Sandy
Alcantara
LAA6.286.6%74.1%58.6%42.6%28.4%17.4%9.8%
Nick
Pivetta
TB6.185.6%72.6%56.7%40.7%26.7%16.1%9.0%
Luis
Garcia
KC5.883.2%69.0%52.5%36.5%23.2%13.5%7.2%
Logan
Gilbert
SD5.883.2%69.0%52.5%36.5%23.2%13.5%7.2%
Ian
Anderson
STL5.378.0%61.7%44.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
Mike
Clevinger
SEA5.377.1%60.6%43.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
Alex
Wood
ARI5.072.9%55.2%37.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
Jameson
Taillon
PIT5.072.9%55.2%37.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
Michael
Kopech
MIN5.072.9%55.2%37.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
Nick
Lodolo
NYM4.972.5%54.7%37.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
Mitch
White
COL4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
Jose
Quintana
NYY4.566.3%47.4%30.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
German
Marquez
LAD4.566.3%47.4%30.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
Kyle
Hendricks
MIL4.565.9%47.0%29.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
Yusei
Kikuchi
OAK4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Cal
Quantrill
DET4.361.7%42.4%25.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
Andre
Pallante
ATL4.157.8%38.3%22.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
Jason
Alexander
CHC4.056.7%37.1%21.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Noah
Syndergaard
MIA3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Tyler
Gilbert
SF3.851.8%32.4%17.9%8.7%3.8%1.5%0.5%
Adrian
Martinez
TOR3.851.6%32.2%17.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
Paolo
Espino
PHI3.751.0%31.7%17.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
Chris
Archer
CHW3.750.0%30.7%16.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
Zack
Greinke
HOU3.647.4%28.4%14.9%6.9%2.9%1.1%0.4%
Spencer
Howard
BAL3.546.6%27.6%14.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Austin
Voth
TEX3.444.6%26.0%13.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Drew
Hutchison
CLE3.342.0%23.7%11.7%5.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
Cristopher
Sanchez
WSH1.79.9%3.2%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes111Nick
Lodolo
31.4%+220
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Paolo
Espino
26.0%+285
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Paolo
Espino
25.8%+290
Byron
Buxton
MINNo106Michael
Kopech
25.6%+290
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo96Mike
Clevinger
24.4%+310
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107German
Marquez
23.9%+320
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Kyle
Hendricks
23.8%+320
Joc
Pederson
SFNo99Tyler
Gilbert
22.8%+340
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Chris
Archer
22.3%+350
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes111Nick
Lodolo
21.8%+360
Robert
Refsnyder
BOSYes99Jeffrey
Springs
21.7%+360
Mitch
Garver
TEXNo112Austin
Voth
21.5%+365
Trea
Turner
LADNo107German
Marquez
21.3%+370
Austin
Slater
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
21.3%+370
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes92Jose
Quintana
20.6%+385
George
Springer
TORNo94Adrian
Martinez
20.4%+390
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo94Adrian
Martinez
20.4%+390
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Zack
Greinke
20.4%+390
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo112Austin
Voth
20.3%+390
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo97Ian
Anderson
19.9%+405
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Zack
Greinke
19.9%+405
Corey
Seager
TEXYes110Austin
Voth
19.8%+405
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Andre
Pallante
19.6%+410
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Andre
Pallante
19.3%+415
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes94Drew
Hutchison
19.2%+420
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes94Drew
Hutchison
19.2%+420
Evan
Longoria
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
19.1%+420
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Spencer
Howard
19.1%+425
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Andre
Pallante
18.8%+430
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Spencer
Howard
18.5%+440
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Cal
Quantrill
18.5%+440
Josh
Bell
WSHYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
18.5%+440
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Spencer
Howard
18.5%+440
Will
Smith
LADNo107German
Marquez
18.4%+440
Bo
Bichette
TORNo94Adrian
Martinez
18.3%+445
Gio
Urshela
MINNo106Michael
Kopech
18.3%+445
Trevor
Story
BOSYes99Jeffrey
Springs
18.3%+445
Mike
Trout
LAANo90Sandy
Alcantara
18.3%+445
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes102Mitch
White
18.1%+450
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo93Jeffrey
Springs
18.0%+455
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYYes92Jose
Quintana
17.9%+460
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo112Austin
Voth
17.8%+460
Matt
Chapman
TORNo94Adrian
Martinez
17.8%+460
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes99Jeffrey
Springs
17.7%+465
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo99Nick
Pivetta
17.4%+475
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes92Jose
Quintana
17.3%+480
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo94Adrian
Martinez
17.2%+480
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes111Nick
Lodolo
17.2%+480
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes110Austin
Voth
17.2%+480
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Chris
Archer
17.1%+485
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo106Michael
Kopech
17.1%+485
Edward
Olivares
KCNo101Luis
Garcia
17.0%+485
Brandon
Drury
CINNo111Max
Scherzer
17.0%+485
Joey
Votto
CINYes113Max
Scherzer
16.9%+490
Darin
Ruf
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
16.8%+495
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Kyle
Hendricks
16.7%+500
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes92Sandy
Alcantara
16.7%+500
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Jason
Alexander
16.7%+500
C.J.
Cron
COLNo107Mitch
White
16.5%+505
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Spencer
Howard
16.5%+505
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Spencer
Howard
16.5%+505
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo95Jose
Quintana
16.4%+510
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102German
Marquez
16.2%+515
Max
Kepler
MINYes111Michael
Kopech
15.9%+525
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Jameson
Taillon
15.9%+530
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes110Austin
Voth
15.8%+530
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
15.7%+535
Max
Muncy
LADYes102German
Marquez
15.6%+545
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes92Noah
Syndergaard
15.5%+545
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Jason
Alexander
15.4%+550
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Kyle
Hendricks
15.4%+550
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes95Mike
Clevinger
15.3%+555
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo97Ian
Anderson
15.3%+555
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes111Michael
Kopech
15.2%+555
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Logan
Gilbert
15.1%+560
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Zack
Greinke
15.1%+560
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Zack
Greinke
15.1%+560
Ramon
Urias
BALNo112Spencer
Howard
15.0%+565
Taylor
Ward
LAANo90Sandy
Alcantara
15.0%+570
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes93Alex
Wood
14.9%+570
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
14.9%+570
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102German
Marquez
14.9%+570
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Kyle
Hendricks
14.8%+575
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes101Kyle
Hendricks
14.8%+575
Dan
Vogelbach
PITYes95Jameson
Taillon
14.7%+580
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes100Ian
Anderson
14.6%+585
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo107Mitch
White
14.5%+590
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Zack
Greinke
14.5%+590
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Zack
Greinke
14.5%+590
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo101Luis
Garcia
14.5%+590
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes93Nick
Pivetta
14.4%+595
Ramon
Laureano
OAKYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
14.4%+595
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes110Austin
Voth
14.4%+595
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
14.3%+600
Christian
Walker
ARIYes93Alex
Wood
14.3%+600
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
14.1%+610
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Paolo
Espino
14.1%+610
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Andre
Pallante
14.0%+615
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Paolo
Espino
13.9%+620
Chris
Taylor
LADNo107German
Marquez
13.8%+625
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Chris
Archer
13.7%+630
Jose
Miranda
MINNo106Michael
Kopech
13.7%+630
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Spencer
Howard
13.6%+635
Trey
Mancini
BALNo112Spencer
Howard
13.6%+640
Starling
Marte
NYMYes111Nick
Lodolo
13.4%+645
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Andre
Pallante
13.3%+650
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Andre
Pallante
13.3%+650
Garrett
Stubbs
PHIYes106Paolo
Espino
13.2%+660
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Noah
Syndergaard
13.1%+660
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Zack
Greinke
13.1%+660
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo99Tyler
Gilbert
13.1%+665
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes92Sandy
Alcantara
13.0%+670
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo94Adrian
Martinez
13.0%+670
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes93Alex
Wood
12.9%+675
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Chris
Archer
12.9%+675
Carlos
Correa
MINNo106Michael
Kopech
12.9%+675
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106Chris
Archer
12.9%+675
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Chris
Archer
12.9%+675
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Nick
Pivetta
12.9%+675
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes92Jose
Quintana
12.8%+680
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes92Jose
Quintana
12.8%+680
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Jason
Alexander
12.6%+690
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
12.5%+700
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Zack
Greinke
12.4%+705
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Drew
Hutchison
12.2%+720
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes95Logan
Gilbert
12.0%+730
Adam
Duvall
ATLNo97Andre
Pallante
12.0%+735
Tommy
Pham
CINNo111Max
Scherzer
11.9%+740
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Kyle
Hendricks
11.9%+740
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo96Mike
Clevinger
11.9%+740
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Andre
Pallante
11.8%+745
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo94Adrian
Martinez
11.7%+755
Christian
Bethancourt
OAKYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
11.6%+760
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo99Cal
Quantrill
11.5%+770
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes99Jeffrey
Springs
11.4%+775
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Chris
Archer
11.3%+780
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Logan
Gilbert
11.3%+785
MJ
Melendez
KCYes102Luis
Garcia
11.3%+785
Alek
Thomas
ARINo99Alex
Wood
11.3%+790
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Spencer
Howard
11.2%+795
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Kyle
Hendricks
11.2%+795
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Jason
Alexander
11.2%+795
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINNo111Max
Scherzer
11.1%+800
Matt
Vierling
PHINo110Paolo
Espino
11.0%+805
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes92Sandy
Alcantara
11.0%+810
Chad
Pinder
OAKYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
10.9%+815
Mark
Canha
NYMYes111Nick
Lodolo
10.9%+815
Elias
Diaz
COLNo107Mitch
White
10.8%+830
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYes92Jose
Quintana
10.7%+835
Hoy
Park
PITYes95Jameson
Taillon
10.6%+840
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes102Mitch
White
10.5%+850
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo96Logan
Gilbert
10.5%+855
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Jason
Alexander
10.4%+860
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo99Nick
Pivetta
10.0%+895
Juan
Soto
WSHNo106Cristopher
Sanchez
10.0%+905
Nomar
Mazara
SDYes95Logan
Gilbert
9.9%+910
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes95Mike
Clevinger
9.9%+910
Michael
Perez
PITYes95Jameson
Taillon
9.9%+910
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes95Mike
Clevinger
9.9%+910
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Cal
Quantrill
9.8%+920
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes94Drew
Hutchison
9.8%+920
Dylan
Moore
SEANo96Mike
Clevinger
9.8%+925
Luis
Arraez
MINYes111Michael
Kopech
9.7%+935
Tommy
Edman
STLYes100Ian
Anderson
9.6%+945
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes110Austin
Voth
9.6%+945
Alex
Verdugo
BOSNo93Jeffrey
Springs
9.5%+955
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Max
Scherzer
9.5%+960
Elvis
Andrus
OAKYes94Yusei
Kikuchi
9.4%+960
Tommy
La
Stella
SFNo99Tyler
Gilbert
9.4%+965
Justin
Turner
LADNo107German
Marquez
9.1%+995
Kris
Bryant
COLNo107Mitch
White
9.1%+995
Connor
Joe
COLNo107Mitch
White
9.1%+995
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo107Mitch
White
9.1%+995
Josh
VanMeter
PITYes95Jameson
Taillon
9.1%+995
Orlando
Arcia
ATLNo97Andre
Pallante
9.1%+995
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Cal
Quantrill
9.1%+1005
Christian
Arroyo
BOSYes99Jeffrey
Springs
9.1%+1005
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSYes99Jeffrey
Springs
9.1%+1005
Maikel
Franco
WSHYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
9.1%+1005
Kevin
Kiermaier
TBYes93Nick
Pivetta
9.0%+1015
Wander
Franco
TBYes93Nick
Pivetta
9.0%+1015
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Kyle
Hendricks
8.9%+1025
Ian
Happ
CHCYes101Jason
Alexander
8.9%+1025
Jake
Hager
ARIYes93Alex
Wood
8.6%+1070
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Cal
Quantrill
8.5%+1070
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Jameson
Taillon
8.4%+1090
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Jameson
Taillon
8.4%+1090
Juan
Yepez
STLNo97Ian
Anderson
8.4%+1095
Sandy
Leon
CLEYes94Drew
Hutchison
8.3%+1105
Joey
Wendle
MIAYes92Noah
Syndergaard
8.1%+1125
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes92Sandy
Alcantara
8.1%+1125
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes110Cristopher
Sanchez
8.1%+1130
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes102Luis
Garcia
8.1%+1130
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes102Luis
Garcia
8.1%+1130
Alfonso
Rivas
CHCYes101Jason
Alexander
8.1%+1140
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Noah
Syndergaard
7.8%+1180
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Noah
Syndergaard
7.8%+1180
Austin
Wynns
SFYes93Tyler
Gilbert
7.8%+1185
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes93Nick
Pivetta
7.5%+1240
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo106Chris
Archer
7.4%+1250
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes92Adrian
Martinez
7.4%+1250
Christian
Vazquez
BOSYes99Jeffrey
Springs
7.4%+1255
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo94Adrian
Martinez
7.4%+1255
Michael
Taylor
KCNo101Luis
Garcia
7.1%+1310
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo101Luis
Garcia
7.1%+1310
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes111Michael
Kopech
7.0%+1335
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Logan
Gilbert
6.8%+1365
Donovan
Solano
CINNo111Max
Scherzer
6.8%+1365
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes94Cal
Quantrill
6.8%+1375
Richie
Palacios
CLEYes94Drew
Hutchison
6.8%+1375
Luke
Voit
SDNo96Logan
Gilbert
6.8%+1380
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes106Paolo
Espino
6.7%+1395
David
Bote
CHCNo103Jason
Alexander
6.4%+1470
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo90Noah
Syndergaard
6.4%+1470
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo90Noah
Syndergaard
6.4%+1470
Jon
Berti
MIANo90Noah
Syndergaard
6.4%+1470
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo101Zack
Greinke
6.3%+1500