MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Tuesday 6/28/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Run
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADKyle
Freeland
11.06.3861.3%45.4%31.0%19.4%11.3%
TORMichael
Wacha
9.55.0539.3%24.5%13.9%7.1%3.4%
TEXJon
Heasley
9.04.8635.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
MINTriston
McKenzie
9.54.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
CLEJosh
Winder
9.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
LAAJohnny
Cueto
9.04.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
COLClayton
Kershaw
11.04.6231.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
CHCLuis
Castillo
9.04.5931.3%18.1%9.4%4.5%1.9%
STLBraxton
Garrett
8.54.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
NYYFrankie
Montas
8.04.5430.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
BOSRoss
Stripling
9.54.4528.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
CINKeegan
Thompson
9.04.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
WSHJose
Quintana
8.54.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
MINZach
Plesac
8.54.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
CHWChase
Silseth
9.04.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
CLEDevin
Smeltzer
8.54.1824.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
PITPatrick
Corbin
8.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
SEADean
Kremer
7.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
KCJon
Gray
9.04.1423.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
HOUCarlos
Carrasco
8.04.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
SFTarik
Skubal
7.04.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
MIADakota
Hudson
8.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
NYMFramber
Valdez
8.03.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
PHICharlie
Morton
7.53.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
TBBrandon
Woodruff
7.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
ARISean
Manaea
7.53.7718.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
SDZac
Gallen
7.53.7317.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
MILShane
Baz
7.53.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
ATLZack
Wheeler
7.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
OAKJP
Sears
8.03.4613.7%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
BALRobbie
Ray
7.53.3512.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
DETCarlos
Rodon
7.02.988.2%3.3%1.1%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Zack
Wheeler
ATL7.192.1%83.2%70.7%55.9%41.0%27.9%17.6%
Carlos
Rodon
DET7.091.8%82.7%69.9%55.0%40.1%27.1%17.0%
Robbie
Ray
BAL6.789.8%79.3%65.2%49.7%34.9%22.7%13.6%
Framber
Valdez
NYM6.286.4%73.8%58.3%42.3%28.1%17.2%9.7%
Charlie
Morton
PHI6.286.3%73.6%58.0%41.9%27.8%17.0%9.5%
Brandon
Woodruff
TB6.286.2%73.5%57.8%41.8%27.7%16.9%9.5%
Sean
Manaea
ARI6.084.4%70.8%54.6%38.6%24.9%14.8%8.1%
Luis
Castillo
CHC5.782.2%67.6%50.8%34.9%21.8%12.5%6.6%
Frankie
Montas
NYY5.681.3%66.2%49.3%33.4%20.7%11.7%6.1%
Zac
Gallen
SD5.680.4%65.0%48.0%32.2%19.7%11.0%5.6%
Clayton
Kershaw
COL5.580.1%64.6%47.5%31.7%19.3%10.7%5.5%
Carlos
Carrasco
HOU5.479.0%63.1%45.9%30.3%18.2%10.0%5.0%
Triston
McKenzie
MIN5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
Jon
Gray
KC5.377.2%60.7%43.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
Tarik
Skubal
SF5.072.8%55.1%37.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
Johnny
Cueto
LAA4.871.0%52.9%35.4%21.3%11.6%5.8%2.6%
Patrick
Corbin
PIT4.668.1%49.4%32.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
Shane
Baz
MIL4.666.6%47.7%30.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
Michael
Wacha
TOR4.463.7%44.5%27.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
Kyle
Freeland
LAD4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
JP
Sears
OAK4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Jose
Quintana
WSH4.158.6%39.1%23.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
Zach
Plesac
MIN4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Braxton
Garrett
STL4.158.0%38.5%22.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
Jon
Heasley
TEX3.954.7%35.2%19.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
Devin
Smeltzer
CLE3.953.9%34.4%19.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Keegan
Thompson
CIN3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Ross
Stripling
BOS3.852.7%33.2%18.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Josh
Winder
CLE3.852.0%32.6%18.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
Dakota
Hudson
MIA3.648.7%29.5%15.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
Dean
Kremer
SEA3.647.8%28.8%15.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Chase
Silseth
CHW3.138.2%20.7%9.8%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Johnny
Cueto
28.6%+249
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes106Patrick
Corbin
27.5%+263
Trea
Turner
LADYes108Kyle
Freeland
26.1%+283
Austin
Riley
ATLNo110Zack
Wheeler
25.8%+288
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Frankie
Montas
25.1%+298
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Frankie
Montas
24.3%+312
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Charlie
Morton
23.9%+319
Anthony
Santander
BALYes99Robbie
Ray
23.7%+321
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Josh
Winder
23.2%+331
Willy
Adames
MILNo94Shane
Baz
22.8%+339
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo98Carlos
Carrasco
21.6%+364
Corey
Seager
TEXYes92Jon
Heasley
21.4%+366
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Dean
Kremer
21.2%+371
Brandon
Drury
CINNo103Keegan
Thompson
20.8%+381
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes99Robbie
Ray
20.6%+385
Christian
Walker
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
20.2%+394
Kyle
Garlick
MINNo99Zach
Plesac
20.2%+396
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Michael
Wacha
19.9%+402
Mitch
Garver
TEXNo92Jon
Heasley
19.6%+410
Franmil
Reyes
CLEYes99Devin
Smeltzer
19.5%+413
Josh
Bell
WSHYes106Jose
Quintana
19.3%+419
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes94Ross
Stripling
19.2%+420
Carlos
Correa
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
19.1%+424
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Clayton
Kershaw
18.9%+429
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes103JP
Sears
18.9%+430
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Josh
Winder
18.8%+431
Michael
Chavis
PITYes106Patrick
Corbin
18.6%+437
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes99Devin
Smeltzer
18.3%+447
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Johnny
Cueto
18.3%+447
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
18.0%+457
Jorge
Soler
MIANo91Dakota
Hudson
17.9%+459
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes92Jon
Heasley
17.8%+461
Joey
Gallo
NYYYes109Frankie
Montas
17.8%+463
Adam
Duvall
ATLNo110Zack
Wheeler
17.6%+469
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes98Framber
Valdez
17.5%+470
Jazz
Chisholm
MIAYes97Dakota
Hudson
17.4%+474
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Charlie
Morton
17.4%+475
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Brandon
Woodruff
17.3%+479
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes92Shane
Baz
17.3%+479
Taylor
Trammell
SEAYes96Dean
Kremer
17.3%+479
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes91Braxton
Garrett
17.1%+484
Luke
Voit
SDNo93Zac
Gallen
17.1%+485
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Johnny
Cueto
17.0%+489
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes98Framber
Valdez
16.9%+492
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes92Jon
Heasley
16.7%+499
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo103Chase
Silseth
16.7%+500
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Luis
Castillo
16.7%+500
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes106Jose
Quintana
16.6%+502
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes95Carlos
Carrasco
16.5%+505
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo101Ross
Stripling
16.4%+509
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Michael
Wacha
16.4%+509
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo92Jon
Heasley
16.4%+510
Austin
Hays
BALYes99Robbie
Ray
16.4%+510
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo99Zach
Plesac
16.2%+519
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes92Jon
Heasley
16.1%+521
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo103Chase
Silseth
16.0%+523
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes95Carlos
Carrasco
15.9%+528
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo110Zack
Wheeler
15.5%+544
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo110Zack
Wheeler
15.5%+544
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo94Shane
Baz
15.5%+545
Will
Smith
LADYes108Kyle
Freeland
15.4%+549
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo98Carlos
Carrasco
15.4%+549
Tommy
Pham
CINNo103Keegan
Thompson
15.4%+550
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Luis
Castillo
15.4%+550
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo109Kyle
Freeland
15.4%+550
Manny
Machado
SDNo93Zac
Gallen
15.4%+551
Diego
Castillo
PITYes106Patrick
Corbin
15.2%+559
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Michael
Wacha
15.1%+560
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Michael
Wacha
15.1%+560
Kyle
Garlick
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
14.9%+571
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Charlie
Morton
14.8%+575
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo110Zack
Wheeler
14.8%+575
Jack
Suwinski
PITNo104Patrick
Corbin
14.8%+576
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Frankie
Montas
14.7%+579
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Johnny
Cueto
14.7%+579
Jake
Burger
CHWNo103Chase
Silseth
14.7%+579
Chris
Taylor
LADYes108Kyle
Freeland
14.7%+582
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSNo101Ross
Stripling
14.5%+590
Max
Kepler
MINYes103Zach
Plesac
14.3%+599
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes97Dakota
Hudson
14.3%+600
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Frankie
Montas
14.3%+601
Carlos
Correa
MINNo99Zach
Plesac
14.2%+602
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Josh
Winder
14.2%+602
Jose
Miranda
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
14.2%+602
Juan
Soto
WSHNo104Jose
Quintana
14.2%+604
Seth
Brown
OAKNo109JP
Sears
14.2%+606
Joey
Votto
CINYes96Keegan
Thompson
14.2%+606
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108Johnny
Cueto
14.2%+606
Christian
Bethancourt
OAKYes103JP
Sears
14.1%+609
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes90Tarik
Skubal
13.9%+619
Javier
Baez
DETYes90Carlos
Rodon
13.9%+619
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes99Zac
Gallen
13.8%+622
Wander
Franco
TBYes92Brandon
Woodruff
13.7%+632
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes99Robbie
Ray
13.6%+633
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes103Triston
McKenzie
13.6%+635
Max
Muncy
LADNo109Kyle
Freeland
13.5%+639
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo109Kyle
Freeland
13.5%+639
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo103Devin
Smeltzer
13.5%+640
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes108Chase
Silseth
13.4%+646
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo92Jon
Heasley
13.4%+647
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Luis
Castillo
13.3%+650
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo91Dakota
Hudson
13.3%+653
Curt
Casali
SFYes90Tarik
Skubal
13.3%+655
Matt
Olson
ATLYes106Zack
Wheeler
13.2%+658
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Brandon
Woodruff
13.0%+669
Jose
Miranda
MINNo99Zach
Plesac
12.9%+675
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Dean
Kremer
12.8%+680
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Frankie
Montas
12.6%+692
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo110Zack
Wheeler
12.6%+694
Luis
Urias
MILNo94Shane
Baz
12.3%+710
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Clayton
Kershaw
12.3%+712
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes108Kyle
Freeland
12.3%+712
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
12.2%+716
Trey
Mancini
BALYes99Robbie
Ray
12.2%+721
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes98Framber
Valdez
12.1%+728
Jonathan
Schoop
DETYes90Carlos
Rodon
11.9%+740
David
Bote
CHCNo103Luis
Castillo
11.9%+740
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo103Chase
Silseth
11.9%+740
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Luis
Castillo
11.9%+740
Trevor
Story
BOSNo101Ross
Stripling
11.7%+754
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Michael
Wacha
11.7%+754
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Dean
Kremer
11.4%+775
Max
Kepler
MINYes103Triston
McKenzie
11.4%+778
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Josh
Winder
11.4%+778
Starling
Marte
NYMYes98Framber
Valdez
11.3%+783
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo103Chase
Silseth
11.2%+796
Hoy
Park
PITNo104Patrick
Corbin
11.1%+800
Christian
Yelich
MILYes92Shane
Baz
11.0%+808
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo94Shane
Baz
11.0%+810
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo109Clayton
Kershaw
10.9%+817
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Jon
Gray
10.8%+827
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Jon
Gray
10.8%+827
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Dean
Kremer
10.8%+828
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes94Michael
Wacha
10.5%+851
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes90Tarik
Skubal
10.5%+852
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Jose
Quintana
10.5%+854
Yu
Chang
PITYes106Patrick
Corbin
10.5%+854
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Luis
Castillo
10.4%+861
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes92Shane
Baz
10.3%+869
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes92Jon
Gray
10.3%+869
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Charlie
Morton
10.1%+891
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Josh
Winder
10.0%+896
Gilberto
Celestino
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
10.0%+896
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo91Dakota
Hudson
10.0%+899
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes91Braxton
Garrett
9.9%+911
Michael
Brantley
HOUYes95Carlos
Carrasco
9.9%+912
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes103Zach
Plesac
9.8%+917
Justin
Turner
LADYes108Kyle
Freeland
9.8%+921
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Clayton
Kershaw
9.8%+921
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Clayton
Kershaw
9.8%+921
Evan
Longoria
SFYes90Tarik
Skubal
9.8%+921
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes90Carlos
Rodon
9.8%+921
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Johnny
Cueto
9.6%+938
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo103Keegan
Thompson
9.6%+938
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Frankie
Montas
9.6%+938
Luis
Robert
CHWNo103Chase
Silseth
9.6%+938
Jonathan
India
CINNo103Keegan
Thompson
9.6%+938
Andrew
Benintendi
KCYes92Jon
Gray
9.6%+941
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Brandon
Woodruff
9.6%+943
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo109Clayton
Kershaw
9.5%+951
Jed
Lowrie
OAKYes103JP
Sears
9.4%+966
Garrett
Stubbs
PHIYes106Charlie
Morton
9.3%+980
Mike
Moustakas
CINYes96Keegan
Thompson
9.2%+983
Juan
Yepez
STLYes91Braxton
Garrett
9.1%+993
Tyler
Nevin
BALYes99Robbie
Ray
9.1%+1004
Nick
Gordon
MINYes103Triston
McKenzie
9.0%+1008
Nick
Gordon
MINYes103Zach
Plesac
9.0%+1008
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Jon
Gray
8.9%+1025
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Frankie
Montas
8.8%+1031
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes106Jose
Quintana
8.8%+1042
Maikel
Franco
WSHYes106Jose
Quintana
8.8%+1042
Daulton
Varsho
ARINo99Sean
Manaea
8.7%+1046
Alek
Thomas
ARINo99Sean
Manaea
8.7%+1046
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo91Dakota
Hudson
8.6%+1061
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes108Johnny
Cueto
8.6%+1067
Jonah
Bride
OAKYes103JP
Sears
8.5%+1072
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Josh
Winder
8.5%+1072
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Dean
Kremer
8.5%+1080
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo98Carlos
Carrasco
8.5%+1083
Miguel
Cabrera
DETYes90Carlos
Rodon
8.3%+1104
Austin
Slater
SFYes90Tarik
Skubal
8.3%+1104
Myles
Straw
CLEYes99Devin
Smeltzer
8.2%+1115
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes99Robbie
Ray
8.2%+1115
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLEYes99Devin
Smeltzer
8.2%+1115
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINNo103Keegan
Thompson
8.0%+1145
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes99Zac
Gallen
7.9%+1163
Nolan
Gorman
STLNo97Braxton
Garrett
7.9%+1164
Jake
Hager
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
7.8%+1186
Buddy
Kennedy
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
7.8%+1186
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes96Luis
Castillo
7.7%+1199
Reese
McGuire
CHWYes108Chase
Silseth
7.7%+1199
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo98Carlos
Carrasco
7.7%+1203
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo98Carlos
Carrasco
7.7%+1203
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo98Carlos
Carrasco
7.7%+1203
Elvis
Andrus
OAKYes103JP
Sears
7.7%+1205
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes106Zack
Wheeler
7.6%+1222
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes92Brandon
Woodruff
7.4%+1251
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes99Robbie
Ray
7.4%+1253
Jonathan
Davis
MILNo94Shane
Baz
7.4%+1253
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo94Brandon
Woodruff
7.4%+1253
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Brandon
Woodruff
7.4%+1253
Trent
Grisham
SDYes99Zac
Gallen
7.1%+1308
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes99Zac
Gallen
7.1%+1308
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo101Ross
Stripling
7.1%+1312
Robert
Refsnyder
BOSNo101Ross
Stripling
7.1%+1312
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes106Jose
Quintana
7.0%+1337
Steven
Kwan
CLENo103Devin
Smeltzer
7.0%+1338
Justin
Upton
SEANo99Dean
Kremer
7.0%+1338
Gilberto
Celestino
MINNo99Zach
Plesac
7.0%+1338
Alec
Bohm
PHINo110Charlie
Morton
6.8%+1376
Darin
Ruf
SFYes90Tarik
Skubal
6.8%+1377
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes90Carlos
Rodon
6.8%+1377
Eric
Haase
DETYes90Carlos
Rodon
6.8%+1377