MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 6/24/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
TEXPaolo
Espino
9.55.2643.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
LAAChris
Flexen
9.55.2142.1%26.9%15.6%8.3%4.0%
MINGerman
Marquez
9.55.2041.9%26.8%15.5%8.2%4.0%
LADIan
Anderson
9.54.9938.2%23.6%13.2%6.7%3.1%
STLKyle
Hendricks
9.04.9036.6%22.3%12.3%6.2%2.8%
KCCole
Irvin
9.04.7534.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
CHWAustin
Voth
8.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
ARIRony
Garcia
8.54.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
TORAdrian
Houser
8.54.5430.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
ATLJulio
Urias
9.54.5129.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
BOSCal
Quantrill
8.54.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
SFGraham
Ashcraft
7.54.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
TBMitch
Keller
7.54.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
COLDylan
Bundy
9.54.3026.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
SEAMichael
Lorenzen
9.54.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
OAKZack
Greinke
9.04.2525.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
WSHDane
Dunning
9.54.2425.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
NYYJustin
Verlander
8.04.2024.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
CLENick
Pivetta
8.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
CHCAndre
Pallante
9.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
MILAlek
Manoah
8.53.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
DETMerrill
Kelly
8.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
HOULuis
Severino
8.03.8018.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
BALMichael
Kopech
8.53.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
MIATaijuan
Walker
7.03.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
PHIMacKenzie
Gore
7.03.5815.3%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
SDAaron
Nola
7.03.4213.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
NYMSandy
Alcantara
7.03.2210.8%4.6%1.7%0.6%0.2%
CINAlex
Cobb
7.53.1910.4%4.4%1.7%0.6%0.2%
PITJeffrey
Springs
7.53.1910.4%4.4%1.7%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Aaron
Nola
SD7.593.9%86.4%75.3%61.5%46.8%33.1%21.8%
Sandy
Alcantara
NYM6.790.3%80.1%66.3%50.9%36.1%23.6%14.3%
Luis
Severino
HOU6.387.1%74.8%59.5%43.5%29.3%18.1%10.3%
Jeffrey
Springs
PIT5.984.3%70.7%54.5%38.4%24.8%14.7%8.0%
Nick
Pivetta
CLE5.883.3%69.2%52.7%36.6%23.3%13.6%7.3%
Alek
Manoah
MIL5.883.3%69.2%52.7%36.6%23.3%13.6%7.3%
Julio
Urias
ATL5.580.2%64.7%47.6%31.9%19.4%10.8%5.5%
MacKenzie
Gore
PHI5.579.7%64.1%46.9%31.2%18.9%10.5%5.3%
Michael
Kopech
BAL5.478.3%62.2%44.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
Alex
Cobb
CIN5.377.7%61.4%44.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
Justin
Verlander
NYY5.377.6%61.2%43.8%28.4%16.8%9.0%4.5%
Adrian
Houser
TOR5.174.6%57.3%39.8%25.0%14.2%7.3%3.5%
Dane
Dunning
WSH5.073.1%55.4%37.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
Taijuan
Walker
MIA5.072.8%55.1%37.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
German
Marquez
MIN4.871.2%53.1%35.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
Ian
Anderson
LAD4.871.0%52.9%35.4%21.3%11.6%5.8%2.6%
Merrill
Kelly
DET4.667.1%48.3%31.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
Dylan
Bundy
COL4.666.8%47.9%30.7%17.7%9.2%4.3%1.9%
Paolo
Espino
TEX4.566.1%47.2%30.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
Cal
Quantrill
BOS4.565.8%46.8%29.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
Michael
Lorenzen
SEA4.463.4%44.1%27.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
Chris
Flexen
LAA4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Andre
Pallante
CHC4.157.8%38.3%22.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
Mitch
Keller
TB4.056.7%37.1%21.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Kyle
Hendricks
STL4.055.9%36.3%20.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
Cole
Irvin
KC3.953.9%34.4%19.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Zack
Greinke
OAK3.953.7%34.2%19.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Rony
Garcia
ARI3.853.3%33.8%18.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
Graham
Ashcraft
SF3.649.1%29.9%16.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
Austin
Voth
CHW3.035.9%19.0%8.7%3.5%1.3%0.4%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Justin
Verlander
26.0%+285
Corey
Seager
TEXYes101Paolo
Espino
23.8%+319
Byron
Buxton
MINNo98German
Marquez
23.5%+326
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo103Luis
Severino
22.8%+338
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes103Cal
Quantrill
22.7%+341
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Chris
Flexen
22.3%+348
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo103Michael
Lorenzen
21.8%+358
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Chris
Flexen
21.8%+358
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Graham
Ashcraft
21.5%+365
C.J.
Cron
COLNo98Dylan
Bundy
21.1%+375
Joey
Gallo
NYYYes109Justin
Verlander
20.9%+379
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98German
Marquez
20.5%+387
Matt
Olson
ATLNo100Julio
Urias
20.4%+389
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes97Julio
Urias
20.3%+392
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Justin
Verlander
20.3%+393
Anthony
Santander
BALYes111Michael
Kopech
19.9%+402
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Paolo
Espino
19.6%+411
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Zack
Greinke
19.4%+414
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Nick
Pivetta
19.4%+415
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Justin
Verlander
19.1%+424
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes109Luis
Severino
19.0%+425
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo106Michael
Kopech
18.9%+429
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes108Michael
Lorenzen
18.9%+429
Jazz
Chisholm
MIAYes92Taijuan
Walker
18.9%+429
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes99Dylan
Bundy
18.9%+430
Pavin
Smith
ARIYes99Rony
Garcia
18.9%+430
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Alek
Manoah
18.5%+440
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Austin
Voth
18.3%+446
Bryce
Harper
PHINo95MacKenzie
Gore
18.3%+447
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Chris
Flexen
18.3%+447
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Chris
Flexen
18.3%+447
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes94Jeffrey
Springs
18.2%+451
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Kyle
Hendricks
18.0%+456
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Cal
Quantrill
18.0%+457
George
Springer
TORNo103Adrian
Houser
17.9%+458
Matt
Chapman
TORNo103Adrian
Houser
17.9%+458
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Kyle
Hendricks
17.9%+459
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes97Julio
Urias
17.4%+475
Adam
Duvall
ATLYes97Julio
Urias
17.4%+475
Austin
Riley
ATLYes97Julio
Urias
17.4%+475
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Justin
Verlander
17.3%+478
Salvador
Perez
KCYes92Cole
Irvin
17.3%+479
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Alek
Manoah
16.7%+498
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Paolo
Espino
16.7%+498
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Chris
Flexen
16.7%+500
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo103Adrian
Houser
16.7%+500
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo98Dylan
Bundy
16.6%+501
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes96MacKenzie
Gore
16.6%+502
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes100Ian
Anderson
16.6%+503
Max
Kepler
MINYes99German
Marquez
16.5%+507
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Austin
Voth
16.4%+509
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Kyle
Hendricks
16.2%+516
Mitch
Garver
TEXNo95Paolo
Espino
16.2%+516
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Mitch
Keller
16.1%+521
Jorge
Soler
MIANo90Taijuan
Walker
16.1%+521
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Alek
Manoah
16.0%+523
Nick
Castellanos
PHIYes96MacKenzie
Gore
16.0%+526
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Graham
Ashcraft
16.0%+526
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Rony
Garcia
16.0%+527
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Aaron
Nola
15.8%+534
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes109Luis
Severino
15.7%+536
Juan
Yepez
STLNo91Kyle
Hendricks
15.7%+538
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes108Michael
Lorenzen
15.6%+541
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo90Taijuan
Walker
15.5%+544
Josh
Bell
WSHYes101Dane
Dunning
15.4%+548
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo98German
Marquez
15.4%+549
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes100Ian
Anderson
15.3%+553
Rougned
Odor
BALYes111Michael
Kopech
15.2%+557
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Austin
Voth
15.2%+557
David
Peralta
ARIYes99Rony
Garcia
15.2%+559
Trevor
Larnach
MINYes99German
Marquez
15.2%+559
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99Rony
Garcia
15.2%+559
Luke
Voit
SDNo96Aaron
Nola
15.1%+560
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo91Andre
Pallante
15.1%+563
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Austin
Voth
15.1%+564
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo90Taijuan
Walker
15.0%+569
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo90Sandy
Alcantara
15.0%+569
Jack
Suwinski
PITNo92Jeffrey
Springs
14.9%+570
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes97Andre
Pallante
14.9%+570
Trevor
Story
BOSNo99Cal
Quantrill
14.9%+571
Joey
Votto
CINYes87Alex
Cobb
14.8%+575
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo95MacKenzie
Gore
14.8%+576
Brian
Serven
COLNo98Dylan
Bundy
14.8%+577
Ty
France
SEANo103Michael
Lorenzen
14.7%+579
Evan
Longoria
SFNo90Graham
Ashcraft
14.4%+596
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Alek
Manoah
14.0%+612
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Justin
Verlander
14.0%+612
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo92Zack
Greinke
14.0%+613
Justin
Turner
LADNo97Ian
Anderson
14.0%+614
MJ
Melendez
KCNo92Cole
Irvin
13.9%+620
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo95Dane
Dunning
13.8%+627
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Paolo
Espino
13.8%+627
Diego
Castillo
PITYes94Jeffrey
Springs
13.7%+627
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes97Julio
Urias
13.4%+646
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Paolo
Espino
13.4%+647
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo103Luis
Severino
13.3%+650
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes92Sandy
Alcantara
13.0%+668
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Mitch
Keller
13.0%+669
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106Austin
Voth
12.9%+673
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Nick
Pivetta
12.9%+676
Juan
Soto
WSHYes101Dane
Dunning
12.7%+689
Taylor
Trammell
SEAYes108Michael
Lorenzen
12.6%+691
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo103Adrian
Houser
12.6%+692
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes99Dylan
Bundy
12.5%+703
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Nick
Pivetta
12.2%+719
Trey
Mancini
BALNo106Michael
Kopech
12.2%+720
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Austin
Voth
12.2%+720
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes111Michael
Kopech
12.2%+723
Whit
Merrifield
KCYes92Cole
Irvin
12.1%+724
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98German
Marquez
12.1%+726
Trea
Turner
LADNo97Ian
Anderson
12.0%+734
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87Graham
Ashcraft
11.8%+749
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Rony
Garcia
11.7%+752
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Nick
Pivetta
11.5%+769
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo98Dylan
Bundy
11.4%+777
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Nick
Pivetta
11.4%+778
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo100Julio
Urias
11.4%+780
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo91Andre
Pallante
11.3%+781
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101Paolo
Espino
11.2%+793
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Justin
Verlander
11.2%+796
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes92Sandy
Alcantara
11.0%+808
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCYes92Cole
Irvin
10.7%+833
Connor
Joe
COLNo98Dylan
Bundy
10.7%+836
Austin
Hays
BALNo106Michael
Kopech
10.7%+837
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo106Michael
Kopech
10.7%+837
Will
Smith
LADNo97Ian
Anderson
10.6%+844
Tommy
Pham
CINNo90Alex
Cobb
10.6%+845
Brandon
Drury
CINNo90Alex
Cobb
10.6%+845
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes111Michael
Kopech
10.5%+852
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes101Dane
Dunning
10.4%+858
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo103Adrian
Houser
10.4%+861
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Justin
Verlander
10.4%+861
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Alek
Manoah
10.4%+861
Bo
Bichette
TORNo103Adrian
Houser
10.4%+861
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108Chris
Flexen
10.3%+875
Riley
Greene
DETYes99Merrill
Kelly
10.3%+875
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Kyle
Hendricks
10.1%+893
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo90Alex
Cobb
9.9%+909
Brandon
Belt
SFYes87Graham
Ashcraft
9.8%+919
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo95Dane
Dunning
9.7%+933
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Alek
Manoah
9.7%+935
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes101Paolo
Espino
9.7%+935
Reese
McGuire
CHWYes111Austin
Voth
9.7%+936
Max
Muncy
LADYes100Ian
Anderson
9.6%+944
Michael
Chavis
PITYes94Jeffrey
Springs
9.4%+962
Ian
Happ
CHCYes97Andre
Pallante
9.3%+973
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Cal
Quantrill
9.3%+976
Hunter
Dozier
KCYes92Cole
Irvin
9.2%+983
Curt
Casali
SFNo90Graham
Ashcraft
9.2%+984
Chris
Taylor
LADNo97Ian
Anderson
9.1%+996
Jake
Burger
CHWNo106Austin
Voth
9.1%+1002
Jed
Lowrie
OAKYes92Zack
Greinke
8.9%+1025
Vidal
Brujan
TBYes92Mitch
Keller
8.9%+1025
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes101Dane
Dunning
8.9%+1027
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo103Luis
Severino
8.8%+1031
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo103Luis
Severino
8.8%+1031
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo103Alek
Manoah
8.8%+1031
Alec
Bohm
PHIYes96MacKenzie
Gore
8.8%+1035
Javier
Baez
DETNo93Merrill
Kelly
8.8%+1038
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo92Jeffrey
Springs
8.8%+1039
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes99Merrill
Kelly
8.7%+1048
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99Rony
Garcia
8.7%+1048
Harrison
Bader
STLNo91Kyle
Hendricks
8.6%+1061
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes108Chris
Flexen
8.6%+1067
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo90Taijuan
Walker
8.5%+1072
Mark
Canha
NYMNo90Sandy
Alcantara
8.5%+1072
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes92Taijuan
Walker
8.1%+1127
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes97Julio
Urias
8.1%+1137
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes101Alek
Manoah
8.1%+1141
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes101Dane
Dunning
8.1%+1141
Miguel
Cabrera
DETNo93Merrill
Kelly
8.1%+1141
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo93Merrill
Kelly
8.1%+1141
Justin
Upton
SEANo103Michael
Lorenzen
8.0%+1145
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo103Michael
Lorenzen
8.0%+1145
Eddy
Alvarez
LADYes100Ian
Anderson
8.0%+1152
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes99Merrill
Kelly
7.9%+1163
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Merrill
Kelly
7.9%+1163
Yu
Chang
PITYes94Jeffrey
Springs
7.9%+1174
Austin
Slater
SFNo90Graham
Ashcraft
7.8%+1179
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes97Kyle
Hendricks
7.8%+1187
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes97Kyle
Hendricks
7.8%+1187
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo99Cal
Quantrill
7.7%+1191
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Nick
Pivetta
7.7%+1191
Tommy
La
Stella
SFYes87Graham
Ashcraft
7.7%+1191
Carlos
Santana
KCYes92Cole
Irvin
7.7%+1199
Michael
Taylor
KCYes92Cole
Irvin
7.7%+1199
Adam
Frazier
SEAYes108Michael
Lorenzen
7.7%+1199
Andrew
Benintendi
KCNo92Cole
Irvin
7.5%+1227
Brett
Phillips
TBYes92Mitch
Keller
7.4%+1251
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo94Mitch
Keller
7.4%+1253
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Nick
Pivetta
7.4%+1257
Carson
Kelly
ARINo93Rony
Garcia
7.3%+1267
Christian
Bethancourt
OAKNo92Zack
Greinke
7.2%+1281
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Alek
Manoah
7.2%+1282
Johan
Camargo
PHIYes96MacKenzie
Gore
7.2%+1292
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo91Andre
Pallante
7.2%+1295
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo91Andre
Pallante
7.2%+1295
Luis
Arraez
MINYes99German
Marquez
7.1%+1308
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes99Rony
Garcia
7.1%+1308
Geraldo
Perdomo
ARIYes99Rony
Garcia
7.1%+1308
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Taijuan
Walker
7.1%+1309
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Graham
Ashcraft
7.1%+1309
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITYes94Jeffrey
Springs
7.0%+1319
Jason
Heyward
CHCYes97Andre
Pallante
7.0%+1335
Jose
Iglesias
COLNo98Dylan
Bundy
6.9%+1352
Gilberto
Celestino
MINNo98German
Marquez
6.9%+1352
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Chris
Flexen
6.8%+1370
Jarren
Duran
BOSYes103Cal
Quantrill
6.5%+1436
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo92Zack
Greinke
6.5%+1440
Orlando
Arcia
ATLYes97Julio
Urias
6.4%+1460
Aledmys
Diaz
HOUNo103Luis
Severino
6.4%+1469
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo103Adrian
Houser
6.4%+1469
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo103Adrian
Houser
6.4%+1469
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes96MacKenzie
Gore
6.3%+1475
Emmanuel
Rivera
KCYes92Cole
Irvin
6.1%+1539
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Aaron
Nola
6.0%+1556
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo96Aaron
Nola
6.0%+1576