MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 6/13/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | Mitch Keller |
9.5 | 5.38 | 45.0% | 29.5% | 17.6% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| ATL | Josiah Gray |
10.0 | 5.36 | 44.7% | 29.2% | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
| TOR | Kyle Bradish |
8.5 | 5.22 | 42.3% | 27.1% | 15.7% | 8.3% | 4.1% |
| HOU | Taylor Hearn |
9.0 | 4.94 | 37.4% | 22.9% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| SD | Justin Steele |
9.0 | 4.71 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| WSH | Ian Anderson |
10.0 | 4.64 | 32.1% | 18.7% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| ARI | Mike Minor |
8.5 | 4.60 | 31.4% | 18.2% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| SF | Brady Singer |
8.0 | 4.48 | 29.4% | 16.6% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| SEA | Chris Archer |
8.5 | 4.32 | 26.7% | 14.7% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| CHC | Yu Darvish |
9.0 | 4.29 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| MIN | Chris Flexen |
8.5 | 4.18 | 24.4% | 13.0% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| CHW | Rony Garcia |
8.0 | 4.17 | 24.2% | 12.9% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| PIT | Zack Thompson |
9.5 | 4.12 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| TEX | Cristian Javier |
9.0 | 4.06 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| PHI | Sandy Alcantara |
7.5 | 3.96 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| CIN | Merrill Kelly |
8.5 | 3.90 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| DET | Lance Lynn |
8.0 | 3.83 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| MIA | Aaron Nola |
7.5 | 3.54 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| KC | Alex Wood |
8.0 | 3.52 | 14.5% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| BAL | Alek Manoah |
8.5 | 3.28 | 11.5% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola |
MIA | 7.1 | 92.1% | 83.2% | 70.7% | 55.9% | 41.0% | 27.9% | 17.6% |
| Alek Manoah |
BAL | 6.7 | 89.9% | 79.5% | 65.5% | 50.0% | 35.2% | 22.9% | 13.8% |
| Sandy Alcantara |
PHI | 6.4 | 88.3% | 76.8% | 62.1% | 46.2% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.7% |
| Yu Darvish |
CHC | 5.9 | 84.0% | 70.1% | 53.8% | 37.8% | 24.2% | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| Cristian Javier |
TEX | 5.8 | 82.6% | 68.2% | 51.5% | 35.5% | 22.4% | 12.9% | 6.8% |
| Alex Wood |
KC | 5.5 | 79.7% | 64.1% | 46.9% | 31.2% | 18.9% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Lance Lynn |
DET | 5.3 | 77.7% | 61.4% | 44.0% | 28.6% | 16.9% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| Josiah Gray |
ATL | 4.9 | 72.6% | 54.9% | 37.4% | 22.9% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Mike Minor |
ARI | 4.7 | 68.6% | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.1% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Merrill Kelly |
CIN | 4.5 | 65.8% | 46.8% | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Ian Anderson |
WSH | 4.5 | 65.6% | 46.6% | 29.5% | 16.8% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Zack Thompson |
PIT | 4.5 | 64.9% | 45.8% | 28.9% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Chris Flexen |
MIN | 4.4 | 63.5% | 44.3% | 27.5% | 15.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Justin Steele |
SD | 4.3 | 62.8% | 43.5% | 26.8% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Taylor Hearn |
HOU | 4.3 | 62.1% | 42.8% | 26.2% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Brady Singer |
SF | 3.9 | 55.3% | 35.7% | 20.4% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Mitch Keller |
STL | 3.9 | 53.7% | 34.2% | 19.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Kyle Bradish |
TOR | 3.7 | 51.4% | 32.1% | 17.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Chris Archer |
SEA | 3.7 | 50.2% | 30.9% | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Rony Garcia |
CHW | 3.6 | 48.3% | 29.2% | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
| Batter | Team | Platoon? | Opp Pitcher |
Proj HR |
HR Probability |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton |
MIN | No | Chris Flexen |
0.53 | 30.4% | +228 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
TOR | No | Kyle Bradish |
0.38 | 25.2% | +297 |
| Austin Riley |
ATL | No | Josiah Gray |
0.37 | 24.7% | +304 |
| Ronald Acuna |
ATL | No | Josiah Gray |
0.35 | 23.9% | +319 |
| Jordan Luplow |
ARI | Yes | Mike Minor |
0.32 | 22.4% | +345 |
| Yordan Alvarez |
HOU | No | Taylor Hearn |
0.32 | 22.4% | +345 |
| Dansby Swanson |
ATL | No | Josiah Gray |
0.31 | 22.0% | +356 |
| Eugenio Suarez |
SEA | No | Chris Archer |
0.30 | 21.4% | +366 |
| George Springer |
TOR | No | Kyle Bradish |
0.30 | 21.4% | +366 |
| Kyle Schwarber |
PHI | Yes | Sandy Alcantara |
0.30 | 21.4% | +366 |
| Teoscar Hernandez |
TOR | No | Kyle Bradish |
0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| Ryan Mountcastle |
BAL | No | Alek Manoah |
0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| Jose Altuve |
HOU | Yes | Taylor Hearn |
0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
| Travis d'Arnaud |
ATL | No | Josiah Gray |
0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
| Nolan Arenado |
STL | No | Mitch Keller |
0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
| Matt Olson |
ATL | Yes | Josiah Gray |
0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
| Bo Bichette |
TOR | No | Kyle Bradish |
0.27 | 19.9% | +403 |
| A.J. Pollock |
CHW | No | Rony Garcia |
0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Frank Schwindel |
CHC | No | Yu Darvish |
0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Manny Machado |
SD | Yes | Justin Steele |
0.25 | 18.7% | +433 |
| Jazz Chisholm |
MIA | Yes | Aaron Nola |
0.25 | 18.7% | +433 |
| Salvador Perez |
KC | Yes | Alex Wood |
0.24 | 18.2% | +450 |
| Rhys Hoskins |
PHI | No | Sandy Alcantara |
0.24 | 18.2% | +450 |
| Lane Thomas |
WSH | No | Ian Anderson |
0.24 | 18.2% | +450 |
| Nelson Cruz |
WSH | No | Ian Anderson |
0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Jorge Soler |
MIA | No | Aaron Nola |
0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Gary Sanchez |
MIN | No | Chris Flexen |
0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Josh Bell |
WSH | Yes | Ian Anderson |
0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Alex Bregman |
HOU | Yes | Taylor Hearn |
0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Matt Chapman |
TOR | No | Kyle Bradish |
0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Ozzie Albies |
ATL | Yes | Josiah Gray |
0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Kyle Tucker |
HOU | No | Taylor Hearn |
0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Corey Seager |
TEX | Yes | Cristian Javier |
0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
| Austin Meadows |
DET | Yes | Lance Lynn |
0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
| Luke Voit |
SD | Yes | Justin Steele |
0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
| Adolis Garcia |
TEX | No | Cristian Javier |
0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
| Jesus Sanchez |
MIA | Yes | Aaron Nola |
0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
| Chas McCormick |
HOU | Yes | Taylor Hearn |
0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
| Jose Abreu |
CHW | No | Rony Garcia |
0.21 | 16.4% | +511 |
| Wilmer Flores |
SF | No | Brady Singer |
0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Jonathan Schoop |
DET | No | Lance Lynn |
0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Ian Happ |
CHC | Yes | Yu Darvish |
0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Patrick Wisdom |
CHC | No | Yu Darvish |
0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Mike Yastrzemski |
SF | Yes | Brady Singer |
0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Nolan Gorman |
STL | Yes | Mitch Keller |
0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Bryce Harper |
PHI | Yes | Sandy Alcantara |
0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Tommy Pham |
CIN | No | Merrill Kelly |
0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Jake Cronenworth |
SD | No | Justin Steele |
0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Pavin Smith |
ARI | No | Mike Minor |
0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Trevor Larnach |
MIN | Yes | Chris Flexen |
0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Cal Raleigh |
SEA | Yes | Chris Archer |
0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Jeremy Pena |
HOU | Yes | Taylor Hearn |
0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Adam Duvall |
ATL | No | Josiah Gray |
0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Max Kepler |
MIN | Yes | Chris Flexen |
0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Dan Vogelbach |
PIT | No | Zack Thompson |
0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Paul Goldschmidt |
STL | No | Mitch Keller |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Jurickson Profar |
SD | Yes | Justin Steele |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Marcus Semien |
TEX | No | Cristian Javier |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Javier Baez |
DET | No | Lance Lynn |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Christian Walker |
ARI | Yes | Mike Minor |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Hunter Dozier |
KC | Yes | Alex Wood |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Anthony Santander |
BAL | Yes | Alek Manoah |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Michael Chavis |
PIT | Yes | Zack Thompson |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Trent Grisham |
SD | No | Justin Steele |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
KC | Yes | Alex Wood |
0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Evan Longoria |
SF | No | Brady Singer |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Kole Calhoun |
TEX | Yes | Cristian Javier |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Marcell Ozuna |
ATL | No | Josiah Gray |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Brad Miller |
TEX | Yes | Cristian Javier |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Rougned Odor |
BAL | Yes | Alek Manoah |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Joc Pederson |
SF | Yes | Brady Singer |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Jesse Winker |
SEA | Yes | Chris Archer |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Lourdes Gurriel |
TOR | No | Kyle Bradish |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Luis Robert |
CHW | No | Rony Garcia |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Taylor Trammell |
SEA | Yes | Chris Archer |
0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Nick Castellanos |
PHI | No | Sandy Alcantara |
0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Jesus Aguilar |
MIA | No | Aaron Nola |
0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Jorge Polanco |
MIN | Yes | Chris Flexen |
0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Carlos Correa |
MIN | No | Chris Flexen |
0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Trey Mancini |
BAL | No | Alek Manoah |
0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Kyle Farmer |
CIN | No | Merrill Kelly |
0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Nathaniel Lowe |
TEX | Yes | Cristian Javier |
0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Andrew Vaughn |
CHW | No | Rony Garcia |
0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Julio Rodriguez |
SEA | No | Chris Archer |
0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Brandon Crawford |
SF | Yes | Brady Singer |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Yasmani Grandal |
CHW | Yes | Rony Garcia |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Tucker Barnhart |
DET | Yes | Lance Lynn |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Ketel Marte |
ARI | Yes | Mike Minor |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Matt Reynolds |
CIN | No | Merrill Kelly |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Yulieski Gurriel |
HOU | Yes | Taylor Hearn |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Juan Soto |
WSH | Yes | Ian Anderson |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Ty France |
SEA | No | Chris Archer |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Santiago Espinal |
TOR | No | Kyle Bradish |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Jonah Heim |
TEX | Yes | Cristian Javier |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Alejandro Kirk |
TOR | No | Kyle Bradish |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| TJ Friedl |
CIN | Yes | Merrill Kelly |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Jack Suwinski |
PIT | No | Zack Thompson |
0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Curt Casali |
SF | No | Brady Singer |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Andrew Benintendi |
KC | No | Alex Wood |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Yoan Moncada |
CHW | Yes | Rony Garcia |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Jorge Alfaro |
SD | Yes | Justin Steele |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Harrison Bader |
STL | No | Mitch Keller |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Tyler O'Neill |
STL | No | Mitch Keller |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Bryan Reynolds |
PIT | Yes | Zack Thompson |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Danny Mendick |
CHW | No | Rony Garcia |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Jake Hager |
ARI | Yes | Mike Minor |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| MJ Melendez |
KC | No | Alex Wood |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Alek Thomas |
ARI | No | Mike Minor |
0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Carlos Santana |
KC | Yes | Alex Wood |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Robbie Grossman |
DET | Yes | Lance Lynn |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Cesar Hernandez |
WSH | Yes | Ian Anderson |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| J.P. Crawford |
SEA | Yes | Chris Archer |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Willson Contreras |
CHC | No | Yu Darvish |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Austin Hays |
BAL | No | Alek Manoah |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Tommy Edman |
STL | Yes | Mitch Keller |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Abraham Toro |
SEA | Yes | Chris Archer |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Ha-Seong Kim |
SD | Yes | Justin Steele |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Tucupita Marcano |
PIT | No | Zack Thompson |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Tyler Nevin |
BAL | No | Alek Manoah |
0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Josh Harrison |
CHW | No | Rony Garcia |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Martin Maldonado |
HOU | Yes | Taylor Hearn |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Michael Brantley |
HOU | No | Taylor Hearn |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Odubel Herrera |
PHI | Yes | Sandy Alcantara |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Gio Urshela |
MIN | No | Chris Flexen |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Brandon Drury |
CIN | No | Merrill Kelly |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Victor Reyes |
DET | Yes | Lance Lynn |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Cedric Mullins |
BAL | Yes | Alek Manoah |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Jake Burger |
CHW | No | Rony Garcia |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Spencer Torkelson |
DET | No | Lance Lynn |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Jose Herrera |
ARI | Yes | Mike Minor |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Christopher Morel |
CHC | No | Yu Darvish |
0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Joey Votto |
CIN | Yes | Merrill Kelly |
0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Garrett Stubbs |
PHI | Yes | Sandy Alcantara |
0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Luis Gonzalez |
SF | No | Brady Singer |
0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Miguel Cabrera |
DET | No | Lance Lynn |
0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Tommy La Stella |
SF | Yes | Brady Singer |
0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Nicky Lopez |
KC | No | Alex Wood |
0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Bryan De La Cruz |
MIA | No | Aaron Nola |
0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Ezequiel Duran |
TEX | No | Cristian Javier |
0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Avisail Garcia |
MIA | No | Aaron Nola |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Didi Gregorius |
PHI | Yes | Sandy Alcantara |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Harold Castro |
DET | Yes | Lance Lynn |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Nico Hoerner |
CHC | No | Yu Darvish |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Nick Madrigal |
CHC | No | Yu Darvish |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Emmanuel Rivera |
KC | Yes | Alex Wood |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Jose Miranda |
MIN | No | Chris Flexen |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Cooper Hummel |
ARI | Yes | Mike Minor |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Diego Castillo |
PIT | Yes | Zack Thompson |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Michael Harris II |
ATL | Yes | Josiah Gray |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Travis Swaggerty |
PIT | No | Zack Thompson |
0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Eric Hosmer |
SD | No | Justin Steele |
0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Jason Heyward |
CHC | Yes | Yu Darvish |
0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Yadier Molina |
STL | No | Mitch Keller |
0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Miguel Rojas |
MIA | No | Aaron Nola |
0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Nomar Mazara |
SD | No | Justin Steele |
0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Raimel Tapia |
TOR | Yes | Kyle Bradish |
0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Eli White |
TEX | No | Cristian Javier |
0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Adley Rutschman |
BAL | Yes | Alek Manoah |
0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
