MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 5/18/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SF Kyle
Freeland
10.5 5.74 51.2% 35.2% 22.1% 12.7% 6.7%
LAD Zach
Davies
8.0 4.92 37.0% 22.6% 12.5% 6.3% 2.9%
HOU Nick
Pivetta
9.0 4.82 35.2% 21.2% 11.5% 5.7% 2.6%
COL Logan
Webb
10.5 4.76 34.2% 20.4% 11.0% 5.4% 2.4%
TOR Marco
Gonzales
8.0 4.75 34.0% 20.2% 10.9% 5.3% 2.4%
NYY Jordan
Lyles
7.5 4.53 30.2% 17.3% 8.9% 4.2% 1.8%
CHW Zack
Greinke
8.0 4.38 27.7% 15.4% 7.7% 3.5% 1.4%
PHI Blake
Snell
8.0 4.33 26.8% 14.8% 7.3% 3.3% 1.3%
MIA Josiah
Gray
7.5 4.27 25.8% 14.1% 6.9% 3.1% 1.2%
CLE Tyler
Mahle
8.0 4.20 24.7% 13.3% 6.4% 2.8% 1.1%
BOS Luis
Garcia
9.0 4.18 24.4% 13.0% 6.3% 2.7% 1.1%
LAA Dane
Dunning
7.5 4.11 23.2% 12.2% 5.8% 2.5% 1.0%
MIN Daulton
Jefferies
7.5 4.11 23.2% 12.2% 5.8% 2.5% 1.0%
CHC Mitch
Keller
7.5 4.09 22.9% 12.0% 5.7% 2.4% 0.9%
NYM Jordan
Hicks
7.0 3.99 21.3% 11.0% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8%
CIN Cal
Quantrill
8.0 3.80 18.4% 9.1% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6%
SD Zack
Wheeler
8.0 3.67 16.6% 7.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5%
TB Eduardo
Rodriguez
6.5 3.63 16.0% 7.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%
KC Lucas
Giolito
8.0 3.62 15.9% 7.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%
MIL Max
Fried
6.5 3.46 13.7% 6.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
PIT Drew
Smyly
7.5 3.41 13.1% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
OAK Sonny
Gray
7.5 3.39 12.8% 5.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
TEX Shohei
Ohtani
7.5 3.39 12.8% 5.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
SEA Kevin
Gausman
8.0 3.25 11.1% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
WSH Pablo
Lopez
7.5 3.23 10.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
ARI Walker
Buehler
8.0 3.08 9.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
ATL Corbin
Burnes
6.5 3.04 8.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
STL Max
Scherzer
7.0 3.01 8.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
BAL Gerrit
Cole
7.5 2.97 8.1% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
DET Drew
Rasmussen
6.5 2.87 7.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Scherzer
STL 7.6 94% 87% 77% 63% 49% 35% 23%
Corbin
Burnes
ATL 7.3 93% 85% 73% 59% 44% 31% 20%
Kevin
Gausman
SEA 7.3 93% 85% 73% 59% 44% 30% 20%
Zack
Wheeler
SD 7.1 92% 83% 71% 56% 41% 28% 18%
Gerrit
Cole
BAL 7.0 92% 83% 70% 55% 40% 27% 17%
Walker
Buehler
ARI 6.6 90% 79% 65% 49% 34% 22% 13%
Lucas
Giolito
KC 6.2 86% 73% 58% 42% 28% 17% 9%
Shohei
Ohtani
TEX 6.0 85% 72% 56% 40% 26% 16% 9%
Pablo
Lopez
WSH 6.0 85% 72% 56% 40% 26% 15% 9%
Max
Fried
MIL 6.0 85% 71% 55% 39% 25% 15% 8%
Eduardo
Rodriguez
TB 5.4 78% 62% 45% 29% 17% 9% 5%
Luis
Garcia
BOS 5.4 78% 62% 45% 29% 17% 9% 5%
Logan
Webb
COL 5.3 77% 61% 44% 28% 17% 9% 4%
Blake
Snell
PHI 5.2 77% 60% 42% 27% 16% 8% 4%
Tyler
Mahle
CLE 5.2 76% 59% 41% 26% 15% 8% 4%
Josiah
Gray
MIA 5.2 76% 59% 41% 26% 15% 8% 4%
Sonny
Gray
OAK 5.0 73% 56% 38% 24% 13% 7% 3%
Nick
Pivetta
HOU 5.0 73% 56% 38% 24% 13% 7% 3%
Cal
Quantrill
CIN 4.7 70% 51% 34% 20% 11% 5% 2%
Dane
Dunning
LAA 4.7 70% 51% 34% 20% 11% 5% 2%
Drew
Smyly
PIT 4.6 67% 48% 31% 18% 9% 4% 2%
Kyle
Freeland
SF 4.5 66% 47% 30% 17% 9% 4% 2%
Drew
Rasmussen
DET 4.5 65% 46% 29% 17% 8% 4% 2%
Jordan
Lyles
NYY 4.5 65% 46% 29% 16% 8% 4% 2%
Marco
Gonzales
TOR 4.2 60% 41% 25% 13% 6% 3% 1%
Zack
Greinke
CHW 4.0 56% 37% 21% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Zach
Davies
LAD 3.9 55% 36% 20% 10% 5% 2% 1%
Mitch
Keller
CHC 3.9 54% 35% 20% 10% 4% 2% 1%
Jordan
Hicks
NYM 3.8 52% 32% 18% 9% 4% 1% 1%
Daulton
Jefferies
MIN 3.6 49% 30% 16% 8% 3% 1% 0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter Opp
Pitcher
Proj
HR
HR
Probability
xHR
Odds
Joey
Gallo
Jordan
Lyles
0.48 28.9% +246
Jose
Ramirez
Tyler
Mahle
0.36 24.3% +312
Giancarlo
Stanton
Jordan
Lyles
0.33 22.9% +336
C.J.
Cron
Logan
Webb
0.29 20.9% +378
Kyle
Schwarber
Blake
Snell
0.29 20.9% +378
Shohei
Ohtani
Dane
Dunning
0.29 20.9% +378
Pete
Alonso
Jordan
Hicks
0.29 20.9% +378
Bryce
Harper
Blake
Snell
0.28 20.4% +391
Jesus
Aguilar
Josiah
Gray
0.28 20.4% +391
Jesus
Sanchez
Josiah
Gray
0.28 20.4% +391
George
Springer
Marco
Gonzales
0.27 19.8% +404
Aaron
Judge
Jordan
Lyles
0.27 19.8% +404
Matt
Chapman
Marco
Gonzales
0.27 19.8% +404
Rhys
Hoskins
Blake
Snell
0.27 19.8% +404
Will
Smith
Zach
Davies
0.27 19.8% +404
Nolan
Arenado
Max
Scherzer
0.26 19.3% +418
Brandon
Drury
Cal
Quantrill
0.26 19.3% +418
Kyle
Tucker
Nick
Pivetta
0.26 19.3% +418
Austin
Riley
Corbin
Burnes
0.26 19.3% +418
Yordan
Alvarez
Nick
Pivetta
0.26 19.3% +418
Luis
Robert
Zack
Greinke
0.26 19.3% +418
Brandon
Belt
Kyle
Freeland
0.25 18.7% +434
Mike
Trout
Dane
Dunning
0.25 18.7% +434
Byron
Buxton
Daulton
Jefferies
0.25 18.7% +434
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
Marco
Gonzales
0.25 18.7% +434
Avisail
Garcia
Josiah
Gray
0.24 18.2% +451
Joc
Pederson
Kyle
Freeland
0.24 18.2% +451
Willson
Contreras
Mitch
Keller
0.24 18.2% +451
Rafael
Devers
Luis
Garcia
0.24 18.2% +451
Patrick
Wisdom
Mitch
Keller
0.24 18.2% +451
Anthony
Rizzo
Jordan
Lyles
0.23 17.6% +469
Jose
Altuve
Nick
Pivetta
0.23 17.6% +469
Dan
Vogelbach
Drew
Smyly
0.23 17.6% +469
Jared
Walsh
Dane
Dunning
0.23 17.6% +469
Freddie
Freeman
Zach
Davies
0.22 17.0% +490
Mike
Zunino
Eduardo
Rodriguez
0.22 17.0% +490
J.T.
Realmuto
Blake
Snell
0.22 17.0% +490
Enrique
Hernandez
Luis
Garcia
0.22 17.0% +490
Mike
Yastrzemski
Kyle
Freeland
0.22 17.0% +490
Salvador
Perez
Lucas
Giolito
0.21 16.3% +512
Eugenio
Suarez
Kevin
Gausman
0.21 16.3% +512
Luke
Voit
Zack
Wheeler
0.21 16.3% +512
Adolis
Garcia
Shohei
Ohtani
0.21 16.3% +512
Jean
Segura
Blake
Snell
0.20 15.7% +536
Max
Muncy
Zach
Davies
0.20 15.7% +536
Josh
Bell
Pablo
Lopez
0.20 15.7% +536
Teoscar
Hernandez
Marco
Gonzales
0.20 15.7% +536
Willy
Adames
Max
Fried
0.20 15.7% +536
Rodolfo
Castro
Drew
Smyly
0.20 15.7% +536
Marcus
Semien
Shohei
Ohtani
0.19 15.1% +564
Jorge
Soler
Josiah
Gray
0.19 15.1% +564
Gio
Urshela
Daulton
Jefferies
0.19 15.1% +564
Gary
Sanchez
Daulton
Jefferies
0.19 15.1% +564
Colin
Moran
Cal
Quantrill
0.19 15.1% +564
Alex
Bregman
Nick
Pivetta
0.19 15.1% +564
Dansby
Swanson
Corbin
Burnes
0.19 15.1% +564
Chas
McCormick
Nick
Pivetta
0.19 15.1% +564
Gavin
Sheets
Zack
Greinke
0.19 15.1% +564
Brandon
Marsh
Dane
Dunning
0.19 15.1% +564
Josh
Donaldson
Jordan
Lyles
0.18 14.4% +594
Nick
Castellanos
Blake
Snell
0.18 14.4% +594
Jose
Abreu
Zack
Greinke
0.18 14.4% +594
Mookie
Betts
Zach
Davies
0.18 14.4% +594
Jesse
Winker
Kevin
Gausman
0.18 14.4% +594
Yoan
Moncada
Zack
Greinke
0.18 14.4% +594
Hunter
Dozier
Lucas
Giolito
0.18 14.4% +594
Hunter
Renfroe
Max
Fried
0.18 14.4% +594
Cody
Bellinger
Zach
Davies
0.18 14.4% +594
Ian
Happ
Mitch
Keller
0.18 14.4% +594
Brian
Anderson
Josiah
Gray
0.18 14.4% +594
Ronald
Acuna
Corbin
Burnes
0.18 14.4% +594
Jazz
Chisholm
Josiah
Gray
0.18 14.4% +594
Justin
Turner
Zach
Davies
0.17 13.7% +628
Nelson
Cruz
Pablo
Lopez
0.17 13.7% +628
Manny
Machado
Zack
Wheeler
0.17 13.7% +628
Robbie
Grossman
Drew
Rasmussen
0.17 13.7% +628
Randal
Grichuk
Logan
Webb
0.17 13.7% +628
Javier
Baez
Drew
Rasmussen
0.17 13.7% +628
Max
Kepler
Daulton
Jefferies
0.17 13.7% +628
Trevor
Story
Luis
Garcia
0.17 13.7% +628
Tyler
Stephenson
Cal
Quantrill
0.17 13.7% +628
DJ
LeMahieu
Jordan
Lyles
0.16 13.1% +666
Evan
Longoria
Kyle
Freeland
0.16 13.1% +666
J.D.
Martinez
Luis
Garcia
0.16 13.1% +666
Chris
Taylor
Zach
Davies
0.16 13.1% +666
Austin
Hedges
Tyler
Mahle
0.16 13.1% +666
Yulieski
Gurriel
Nick
Pivetta
0.16 13.1% +666
Matt
Olson
Corbin
Burnes
0.16 13.1% +666
Brett
Phillips
Eduardo
Rodriguez
0.16 13.1% +666
Ty
France
Kevin
Gausman
0.16 13.1% +666
Sean
Murphy
Sonny
Gray
0.16 13.1% +666
Charlie
Blackmon
Logan
Webb
0.15 12.4% +709
Eduardo
Escobar
Jordan
Hicks
0.15 12.4% +709
Mike
Moustakas
Cal
Quantrill
0.15 12.4% +709
A.J.
Pollock
Zack
Greinke
0.15 12.4% +709
Yasmani
Grandal
Zack
Greinke
0.15 12.4% +709
Marcell
Ozuna
Corbin
Burnes
0.15 12.4% +709
Tommy
Pham
Cal
Quantrill
0.15 12.4% +709
Lourdes
Gurriel
Marco
Gonzales
0.15 12.4% +709
Frank
Schwindel
Mitch
Keller
0.15 12.4% +709
Mike
Ford
Kevin
Gausman
0.15 12.4% +709
Bryan
Reynolds
Drew
Smyly
0.15 12.4% +709
Brendan
Rodgers
Logan
Webb
0.15 12.4% +709
Yoshitomo
Tsutsugo
Drew
Smyly
0.15 12.4% +709
Daulton
Varsho
Walker
Buehler
0.15 12.4% +709
Ha-Seong
Kim
Zack
Wheeler
0.15 12.4% +709
Jeremy
Pena
Nick
Pivetta
0.15 12.4% +709
Carlos
Santana
Lucas
Giolito
0.14 11.6% +759
Brad
Miller
Shohei
Ohtani
0.14 11.6% +759
Xander
Bogaerts
Luis
Garcia
0.14 11.6% +759
Tommy
La
Stella
Kyle
Freeland
0.14 11.6% +759
Adam
Duvall
Corbin
Burnes
0.14 11.6% +759
Trea
Turner
Zach
Davies
0.14 11.6% +759
Corey
Seager
Shohei
Ohtani
0.14 11.6% +759
Tim
Anderson
Zack
Greinke
0.14 11.6% +759
Ben
Gamel
Drew
Smyly
0.14 11.6% +759
Garrett
Cooper
Josiah
Gray
0.14 11.6% +759
Austin
Hays
Gerrit
Cole
0.14 11.6% +759
Franmil
Reyes
Tyler
Mahle
0.14 11.6% +759
Ramon
Laureano
Sonny
Gray
0.14 11.6% +759
Seth
Brown
Sonny
Gray
0.14 11.6% +759
Yadiel
Hernandez
Pablo
Lopez
0.14 11.6% +759
Andrew
Vaughn
Zack
Greinke
0.14 11.6% +759
Geraldo
Perdomo
Walker
Buehler
0.14 11.6% +759
Alfonso
Rivas
Mitch
Keller
0.14 11.6% +759
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
Lucas
Giolito
0.14 11.6% +759
Seiya
Suzuki
Mitch
Keller
0.14 11.6% +759
Brandon
Crawford
Kyle
Freeland
0.13 10.9% +816
Miguel
Cabrera
Drew
Rasmussen
0.13 10.9% +816
Paul
Goldschmidt
Max
Scherzer
0.13 10.9% +816
Robinson
Chirinos
Gerrit
Cole
0.13 10.9% +816
Christian
Walker
Walker
Buehler
0.13 10.9% +816
Ketel
Marte
Walker
Buehler
0.13 10.9% +816
Anthony
Santander
Gerrit
Cole
0.13 10.9% +816
Bo
Bichette
Marco
Gonzales
0.13 10.9% +816
Wander
Franco
Eduardo
Rodriguez
0.13 10.9% +816
Jed
Lowrie
Sonny
Gray
0.12 10.2% +883
Michael
Brantley
Nick
Pivetta
0.12 10.2% +883
Kole
Calhoun
Shohei
Ohtani
0.12 10.2% +883
Leury
Garcia
Zack
Greinke
0.12 10.2% +883
Kolten
Wong
Max
Fried
0.12 10.2% +883
Rougned
Odor
Gerrit
Cole
0.12 10.2% +883
Jorge
Polanco
Daulton
Jefferies
0.12 10.2% +883
Francisco
Lindor
Jordan
Hicks
0.12 10.2% +883
Andrew
Benintendi
Lucas
Giolito
0.12 10.2% +883
Yandy
Diaz
Eduardo
Rodriguez
0.12 10.2% +883
Tyler
O'Neill
Max
Scherzer
0.12 10.2% +883
Michael
Perez
Drew
Smyly
0.12 10.2% +883
Cedric
Mullins
Gerrit
Cole
0.12 10.2% +883
Taylor
Ward
Dane
Dunning
0.12 10.2% +883
Thairo
Estrada
Kyle
Freeland
0.12 10.2% +883
Randy
Arozarena
Eduardo
Rodriguez
0.12 10.2% +883
Joey
Bart
Kyle
Freeland
0.12 10.2% +883
Jonah
Heim
Shohei
Ohtani
0.12 10.2% +883
Spencer
Torkelson
Drew
Rasmussen
0.12 10.2% +883
Brendan
Donovan
Max
Scherzer
0.12 10.2% +883
Bryson
Stott
Blake
Snell
0.12 10.2% +883
Yadier
Molina
Max
Scherzer
0.11 9.4% +962
Cesar
Hernandez
Pablo
Lopez
0.11 9.4% +962
Jonathan
Schoop
Drew
Rasmussen
0.11 9.4% +962
Odubel
Herrera
Blake
Snell
0.11 9.4% +962
Elias
Diaz
Logan
Webb
0.11 9.4% +962
Tyler
Naquin
Cal
Quantrill
0.11 9.4% +962
Matt
Reynolds
Cal
Quantrill
0.11 9.4% +962
Amed
Rosario
Tyler
Mahle
0.11 9.4% +962
Ryan
McMahon
Logan
Webb
0.11 9.4% +962
Juan
Soto
Pablo
Lopez
0.11 9.4% +962
Nathaniel
Lowe
Shohei
Ohtani
0.11 9.4% +962
Michael
Chavis
Drew
Smyly
0.11 9.4% +962
Harold
Ramirez
Eduardo
Rodriguez
0.11 9.4% +962
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
Kyle
Freeland
0.11 9.4% +962
Sheldon
Neuse
Sonny
Gray
0.11 9.4% +962
Eli
White
Shohei
Ohtani
0.11 9.4% +962
Tyler
Nevin
Gerrit
Cole
0.11 9.4% +962
TJ
Friedl
Cal
Quantrill
0.11 9.4% +962
Juan
Yepez
Max
Scherzer
0.11 9.4% +962
Jose
Miranda
Daulton
Jefferies
0.11 9.4% +962
Alek
Thomas
Walker
Buehler
0.11 9.4% +962
Rafael
Ortega
Mitch
Keller
0.10 8.6% +1058
Anthony
Rendon
Dane
Dunning
0.10 8.6% +1058
Christian
Vazquez
Luis
Garcia
0.10 8.6% +1058
Trey
Mancini
Gerrit
Cole
0.10 8.6% +1058
Jacob
Stallings
Josiah
Gray
0.10 8.6% +1058
Trent
Grisham
Zack
Wheeler
0.10 8.6% +1058
Willi
Castro
Drew
Rasmussen
0.10 8.6% +1058
Luis
Barrera
Sonny
Gray
0.10 8.6% +1058
Jack
Suwinski
Drew
Smyly
0.10 8.6% +1058
Royce
Lewis
Daulton
Jefferies
0.10 8.6% +1058
Aaron
Hicks
Jordan
Lyles
0.09 7.8% +1174
Jackie
Bradley
Luis
Garcia
0.09 7.8% +1174
Miguel
Rojas
Josiah
Gray
0.09 7.8% +1174
Maikel
Franco
Pablo
Lopez
0.09 7.8% +1174
Tony
Kemp
Sonny
Gray
0.09 7.8% +1174
Franchy
Cordero
Luis
Garcia
0.09 7.8% +1174
Harrison
Bader
Max
Scherzer
0.09 7.8% +1174
Ozzie
Albies
Corbin
Burnes
0.09 7.8% +1174
Victor
Robles
Pablo
Lopez
0.09 7.8% +1174
Tomas
Nido
Jordan
Hicks
0.09 7.8% +1174
Jose
Trevino
Jordan
Lyles
0.09 7.8% +1174
Tommy
Edman
Max
Scherzer
0.09 7.8% +1174
Pavin
Smith
Walker
Buehler
0.09 7.8% +1174
Vidal
Brujan
Eduardo
Rodriguez
0.09 7.8% +1174
Eric
Hosmer
Zack
Wheeler
0.08 7.0% +1320
Jose
Iglesias
Logan
Webb
0.08 7.0% +1320
Lorenzo
Cain
Max
Fried
0.08 7.0% +1320
Tucker
Barnhart
Drew
Rasmussen
0.08 7.0% +1320
Michael
Taylor
Lucas
Giolito
0.08 7.0% +1320
Bradley
Zimmer
Marco
Gonzales
0.08 7.0% +1320
Kyle
Farmer
Cal
Quantrill
0.08 7.0% +1320
Chad
Wallach
Dane
Dunning
0.08 7.0% +1320
Alex
Verdugo
Luis
Garcia
0.08 7.0% +1320
Luis
Urias
Max
Fried
0.08 7.0% +1320
Rowdy
Tellez
Max
Fried
0.08 7.0% +1320
Ramon
Urias
Gerrit
Cole
0.08 7.0% +1320
Santiago
Espinal
Marco
Gonzales
0.08 7.0% +1320
Jake
Cronenworth
Zack
Wheeler
0.08 7.0% +1320
Cristian
Pache
Sonny
Gray
0.08 7.0% +1320
Owen
Miller
Tyler
Mahle
0.08 7.0% +1320
Julio
Rodriguez
Kevin
Gausman
0.08 7.0% +1320
MJ
Melendez
Lucas
Giolito
0.08 7.0% +1320
Jurickson
Profar
Zack
Wheeler
0.07 6.2% +1507
Jonathan
Villar
Mitch
Keller
0.07 6.2% +1507
Christian
Yelich
Max
Fried
0.07 6.2% +1507
David
Peralta
Walker
Buehler
0.07 6.2% +1507
Jeimer
Candelario
Drew
Rasmussen
0.07 6.2% +1507
Dominic
Smith
Jordan
Hicks
0.07 6.2% +1507
Myles
Straw
Tyler
Mahle
0.07 6.2% +1507
Connor
Joe
Logan
Webb
0.07 6.2% +1507
Oscar
Mercado
Tyler
Mahle
0.07 6.2% +1507
Sam
Hilliard
Logan
Webb
0.07 6.2% +1507
Gavin
Lux
Zach
Davies
0.07 6.2% +1507
Andres
Gimenez
Tyler
Mahle
0.07 6.2% +1507