MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 5/9/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
MIAHumberto
Castellanos
9.04.6131.6%18.3%9.6%4.6%2.0%
LADJose
Quintana
7.54.4528.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
ARIElieser
Hernandez
9.04.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
NYYJon
Gray
7.54.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
CHWZach
Plesac
7.54.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
LAAJeff
Springs
8.04.2024.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
MILLuis
Castillo
7.54.1423.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
SDKyle
Hendricks
7.54.1423.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
BALCarlos
Hernandez
7.53.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
SFAustin
Gomber
6.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
SEARanger
Suarez
7.53.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
TBNoah
Syndergaard
8.03.8018.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
PHIChris
Flexen
7.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
DETPaul
Blackburn
7.03.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
KCTyler
Wells
7.53.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
OAKMichael
Pineda
7.03.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
CHCMacKenzie
Gore
7.53.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
CINBrandon
Woodruff
7.53.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
CLEMichael
Kopech
7.53.2911.6%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
TEXNestor
Cortes
7.53.119.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
PITJulio
Urias
7.53.058.9%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
COLCarlos
Rodon
6.52.574.7%1.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Carlos RodonCOL7.292.7%84.3%72.2%57.7%42.8%29.5%18.8%
Brandon WoodruffCIN6.890.8%80.9%67.4%52.2%37.3%24.6%15.1%
Luis CastilloMIL6.085.1%71.9%55.9%39.9%26.0%15.6%8.6%
Nestor CortesTEX5.782.2%67.6%50.8%34.9%21.8%12.5%6.6%
Julio UriasPIT5.478.8%62.8%45.6%30.0%18.0%9.8%4.9%
Michael KopechCLE5.377.2%60.7%43.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
MacKenzie GoreCHC5.174.5%57.2%39.6%24.8%14.1%7.3%3.4%
Ranger SuarezSEA4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
Austin GomberSF4.666.6%47.7%30.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
Kyle HendricksSD4.564.9%45.8%28.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
Noah SyndergaardTB4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Zach PlesacCHW4.361.6%42.2%25.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
Elieser HernandezARI4.260.6%41.2%24.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
Chris FlexenPHI4.259.9%40.4%24.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
Jose QuintanaLAD4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Jon GrayNYY4.055.7%36.1%20.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Carlos HernandezBAL3.852.4%33.0%18.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Jeff SpringsLAA3.750.4%31.1%16.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
Paul BlackburnDET3.443.9%25.4%12.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Michael PinedaOAK3.342.2%23.9%11.8%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
Humberto CastellanosMIA2.932.1%16.2%7.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter Team Opp PA Proj
HR
HR
Probability
xHR
Odds
Salvador PerezKCBAL4.540.3423.4%+328
Bryce HarperPHISEA4.560.3322.9%+336
Jesus SanchezMIAARI4.440.3222.4%+346
Trea TurnerLADPIT4.760.2920.9%+378
Sean MurphyOAKDET4.440.2920.9%+378
Jose RamirezCLECHW4.480.2820.4%+391
Hunter RenfroeMILCIN4.300.2820.4%+391
Rhys HoskinsPHISEA4.220.2820.4%+391
Jorge SolerMIAARI4.550.2719.8%+404
Jose AbreuCHWCLE4.370.2719.8%+404
Max MuncyLADPIT4.540.2719.8%+404
Joey GalloNYYTEX3.980.2719.8%+404
Brandon BeltSFCOL4.440.2518.7%+434
Josh DonaldsonNYYTEX4.200.2518.7%+434
Manny MachadoSDCHC4.410.2518.7%+434
Kyle SchwarberPHISEA4.780.2518.7%+434
Wilmer FloresSFCOL4.220.2418.2%+451
Javier BaezDETOAK4.450.2418.2%+451
Cody BellingerLADPIT4.310.2418.2%+451
Luis RobertCHWCLE4.260.2418.2%+451
Daulton VarshoARIMIA4.600.2418.2%+451
Giancarlo StantonNYYTEX4.310.2317.6%+469
Rafael OrtegaCHCSD4.710.2317.6%+469
Mike ZuninoTBLAA4.010.2317.6%+469
Nick CastellanosPHISEA4.440.2317.6%+469
Aaron JudgeNYYTEX4.540.2317.6%+469
Marcus SemienTEXNYY4.650.2217.0%+490
C.J. CronCOLSF4.260.2217.0%+490
Ian HappCHCSD4.490.2217.0%+490
Austin HaysBALKC4.320.2217.0%+490
Willy AdamesMILCIN4.740.2217.0%+490
Mike YastrzemskiSFCOL3.770.2217.0%+490
Jesus AguilarMIAARI4.660.2116.3%+512
Mookie BettsLADPIT4.980.2116.3%+512
Corey SeagerTEXNYY4.430.2116.3%+512
Brandon LoweTBLAA4.560.2116.3%+512
Jack MayfieldLAATB3.920.2116.3%+512
Jazz ChisholmMIAARI4.770.2116.3%+512
Anthony RizzoNYYTEX4.420.2015.7%+536
Yasmani GrandalCHWCLE4.150.2015.7%+536
Chris TaylorLADPIT4.420.2015.7%+536
Jesse WinkerSEAPHI4.180.2015.7%+536
Garrett CooperMIAARI4.220.2015.7%+536
Adolis GarciaTEXNYY4.540.2015.7%+536
Seth BrownOAKDET4.330.2015.7%+536
Jed LowrieOAKDET4.550.1915.1%+564
Robbie GrossmanDETOAK4.560.1915.1%+564
Patrick WisdomCHCSD3.930.1915.1%+564
Jake CronenworthSDCHC4.630.1915.1%+564
Ha-Seong KimSDCHC4.520.1915.1%+564
Justin TurnerLADPIT4.650.1814.4%+594
Franmil ReyesCLECHW4.150.1814.4%+594
Randy ArozarenaTBLAA4.670.1814.4%+594
Tyler StephensonCINMIL4.100.1814.4%+594
Seiya SuzukiCHCSD4.600.1814.4%+594
Tim AndersonCHWCLE4.590.1713.7%+628
Willson ContrerasCHCSD4.380.1713.7%+628
Austin SlaterSFCOL4.660.1713.7%+628
Ryan O'HearnKCBAL4.420.1713.7%+628
Cedric MullinsBALKC4.650.1713.7%+628
Luis UriasMILCIN4.410.1713.7%+628
Rowdy TellezMILCIN4.520.1713.7%+628
Jared WalshLAATB4.140.1713.7%+628
Wander FrancoTBLAA4.780.1713.7%+628
Gavin SheetsCHWCLE4.040.1713.7%+628
Freddie FreemanLADPIT4.870.1613.1%+666
Max StassiLAATB4.030.1613.1%+666
Eugenio SuarezSEAPHI4.290.1613.1%+666
Nick AhmedARIMIA3.820.1613.1%+666
Ryan McMahonCOLSF4.040.1613.1%+666
Shohei OhtaniLAATB4.360.1613.1%+666
Sheldon NeuseOAKDET4.660.1613.1%+666
Tyrone TaylorMILCIN4.080.1613.1%+666
Christian WalkerARIMIA4.270.1512.4%+709
Jeimer CandelarioDETOAK4.120.1512.4%+709
Brett PhillipsTBLAA4.120.1512.4%+709
Ty FranceSEAPHI4.510.1512.4%+709
Brendan RodgersCOLSF3.930.1512.4%+709
Jonah HeimTEXNYY4.320.1512.4%+709
Jarred KelenicSEAPHI3.850.1512.4%+709
Akil BaddooDETOAK3.680.1512.4%+709
Tyler NevinBALKC3.990.1512.4%+709
Seth BeerARIMIA3.930.1512.4%+709
Jason HeywardCHCSD4.040.1411.6%+759
Mike TroutLAATB4.470.1411.6%+759
Jurickson ProfarSDCHC4.190.1411.6%+759
Darin RufSFCOL4.330.1411.6%+759
Jake MarisnickPITLAD3.680.1411.6%+759
Austin HedgesCLECHW3.820.1411.6%+759
Joey WendleMIAARI4.110.1411.6%+759
Yandy DiazTBLAA4.900.1411.6%+759
Adam EngelCHWCLE3.820.1411.6%+759
Trent GrishamSDCHC4.080.1411.6%+759
Ryan MountcastleBALKC4.210.1411.6%+759
Jake BurgerCHWCLE3.930.1411.6%+759
Spencer TorkelsonDETOAK3.900.1411.6%+759
Eric HosmerSDCHC4.300.1310.9%+816
Christian YelichMILCIN4.630.1310.9%+816
Jonathan SchoopDETOAK4.010.1310.9%+816
Ketel MarteARIMIA4.040.1310.9%+816
Andrew BenintendiKCBAL4.650.1310.9%+816
Chad PinderOAKDET4.110.1310.9%+816
Connor JoeCOLSF4.590.1310.9%+816
Mauricio DubonSFCOL4.550.1310.9%+816
Joey BartSFCOL3.890.1310.9%+816
Alfonso RivasCHCSD4.270.1310.9%+816
Steven KwanCLECHW4.590.1310.9%+816
DJ LeMahieuNYYTEX4.650.1210.2%+883
Leury GarciaCHWCLE3.700.1210.2%+883
Randal GrichukCOLSF4.370.1210.2%+883
David PeraltaARIMIA4.380.1210.2%+883
Tommy PhamCINMIL4.330.1210.2%+883
Elias DiazCOLSF4.150.1210.2%+883
Tony KempOAKDET4.770.1210.2%+883
Albert Almora Jr.CINMIL3.660.1210.2%+883
Billy McKinneyOAKDET4.220.1210.2%+883
Andrew VelazquezLAATB3.690.1210.2%+883
Yoshitomo TsutsugoPITLAD4.230.1210.2%+883
Eli WhiteTEXNYY3.760.1210.2%+883
Brandon MarshLAATB3.810.1210.2%+883
Charlie BlackmonCOLSF4.480.119.4%+962
Miguel CabreraDETOAK4.230.119.4%+962
Avisail GarciaMIAARI4.330.119.4%+962
Anthony RendonLAATB4.250.119.4%+962
Tucker BarnhartDETOAK3.790.119.4%+962
Rougned OdorBALKC4.100.119.4%+962
Austin BarnesLADPIT4.200.119.4%+962
Brandon DruryCINMIL4.440.119.4%+962
Tyler NaquinCINMIL4.550.119.4%+962
Whit MerrifieldKCBAL4.200.119.4%+962
Jorge AlfaroSDCHC3.970.119.4%+962
Austin MeadowsDETOAK4.340.119.4%+962
Kyle FarmerCINMIL3.880.119.4%+962
Anthony SantanderBALKC4.430.119.4%+962
Taylor WardLAATB4.580.119.4%+962
Michael ChavisPITLAD4.340.119.4%+962
Bryan ReynoldsPITLAD4.450.119.4%+962
Alec BohmPHISEA4.670.119.4%+962
Jose HerreraARIMIA3.710.119.4%+962
Jean SeguraPHISEA4.110.108.6%+1058
Trey ManciniBALKC4.540.108.6%+1058
Hunter DozierKCBAL4.310.108.6%+1058
Matt BeatySDCHC3.850.108.6%+1058
Nick SolakTEXNYY4.210.108.6%+1058
Nick MadrigalCHCSD3.820.108.6%+1058
Pavin SmithARIMIA4.490.108.6%+1058
C.J. AbramsSDCHC3.740.108.6%+1058
A.J. PollockCHWCLE4.480.097.8%+1174
Charlie CulbersonTEXNYY3.870.097.8%+1174
J.T. RealmutoPHISEA4.330.097.8%+1174
Miguel RojasMIAARI4.000.097.8%+1174
J.P. CrawfordSEAPHI4.400.097.8%+1174
Colin MoranCINMIL3.990.097.8%+1174
Jacob StallingsMIAARI3.880.097.8%+1174
Adam FrazierSEAPHI4.620.097.8%+1174
Gleyber TorresNYYTEX4.090.097.8%+1174
Bryson StottPHISEA3.890.097.8%+1174
Kolten WongMILCIN4.850.087.0%+1320
Amed RosarioCLECHW3.930.087.0%+1320
Jose TrevinoNYYTEX3.760.087.0%+1320
Thairo EstradaSFCOL4.000.087.0%+1320
Anthony BemboomBALKC3.880.087.0%+1320
Josh NaylorCLECHW4.260.087.0%+1320
Josh RojasARIMIA4.150.087.0%+1320
Nico HoernerCHCSD4.150.087.0%+1320
Andres GimenezCLECHW4.040.087.0%+1320
Luis GonzalezSFCOL4.110.087.0%+1320
Jack SuwinskiPITLAD4.010.087.0%+1320
Kole CalhounTEXNYY3.980.076.2%+1507
Omar NarvaezMILCIN4.190.076.2%+1507
Josh VanMeterPITLAD3.790.076.2%+1507
Jorge MateoBALKC3.770.076.2%+1507
TJ FriedlCINMIL3.770.076.2%+1507
Diego CastilloPITLAD4.120.076.2%+1507
Lorenzo CainMILCIN3.970.065.4%+1757
Mike MoustakasCINMIL4.220.065.4%+1757
Kevin KiermaierTBLAA4.340.065.4%+1757
Michael TaylorKCBAL3.980.065.4%+1757
Odubel HerreraPHISEA4.000.065.4%+1757
Abraham ToroSEAPHI4.070.065.4%+1757
Gavin LuxLADPIT4.090.065.4%+1757
Cristian PacheOAKDET3.890.065.4%+1757
Ke'Bryan HayesPITLAD4.570.065.4%+1757
Andy IbanezTEXNYY4.090.065.4%+1757
MJ MelendezKCBAL4.090.065.4%+1757
Manuel MargotTBLAA4.450.054.5%+2108
Andrew KnappPITLAD3.900.054.5%+2108
Myles StrawCLECHW4.700.054.5%+2108
Nicky LopezKCBAL3.870.054.5%+2108
Bobby Witt Jr.KCBAL4.760.054.5%+2108
Julio RodriguezSEAPHI3.960.054.5%+2108
Elvis AndrusOAKDET4.000.043.7%+2634
Taylor WallsTBLAA4.230.043.7%+2634
Owen MillerCLECHW4.370.043.7%+2634
Jose IglesiasCOLSF3.710.032.8%+3510
Yonathan DazaCOLSF3.820.032.8%+3510
Cal RaleighSEAPHI3.730.021.9%+5264