3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/9/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
David Peralta To Hit a Home Run (+560)
With a massive home run prop sitting at +560, David Peralta's matchup is the spot to look at tonight.
There's no doubt this is a massive line for a home run prop considering most lines are around +300 to +350, but this is a great matchup for Peralta.
Peralta has reinvented himself as a hitter and it's showing in a few different areas. Last year, Peralta had a very low, 26.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers, due to his five-degree launch angle, which is also super low. This season, he is carrying a big 51.7% fly-ball rate due to his 22-degree launch angle. This is a clear jump for Peralta, who has changed his approach at the plate, and it's paying dividends.
He's going up against Elieser Hernandez, who is allowing 3.21 HR/9. a 4.69 xFIP, a 46.7% fly-ball rate, and a 23.8% HR/FB ratio versus lefties this season. While it's a smaller sample size to start the year, those numbers are exactly in line with what he allowed last season, 3.67 HR/9, a 5.48 xFIP, a 47.7% fly-ball, and a 26.8% HR/FB ratio.
It's a solid matchup, and the increase in power is clear for Peralta this year.
Paul Blackburn Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+116)
Paul Blackburn is off to a great start this season and has an easy matchup for some strikeouts.
Blackburn is carrying a 25.0% strikeout rate this season, which is a clear increase from the 14.9% strikeout rate he carried last season and his 14.4% career strikeout rate.
He's posted four strikeouts or more in four of his five starts and five strikeouts or more in two of those starts. He's right on the edge for this prop but the matchup versus the Detroit Tigers should help push him to the over.
The Tigers come in with a 25.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-worst in the league.
A nice increase from Blackburn this season and a soft matchup should allow him to push towards the over. Also, a little sprinkle on six-plus strikeouts at +260 is worth considering.
Jose Abreu To Record an RBI (+135)
The Chicago White Sox have a 4.21 implied run total -- and a spot to look for some player props -- tonight.
Zach Plesac will be on the mound for the Cleveland Guardians, and he's a pitcher worth attacking. This season, Plesac is carrying a 4.46 xFIP, a .329 wOBA, allowing 1.88 HR/9, a 38.7% fly-ball rate, and a 35.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting going up against a White Sox lineup that is normally loaded with righties.
In the middle of the lineup, we see Jose Abreu, who is hot at the dish right now, entering with six hits and five RBIs over his last four games. He's carrying a 109 wRC+, a low 19.1% strikeout rate, a .165 ISO, a 42.9% fly-ball rate, and a 42.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
The White Sox should be able to put up multiple runs tonight, and Abreu should be firmly in the mix.