MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/20/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
Oakland Moneyline (-134): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland -1.5 (-164): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.0 (-108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees this game playing out differently than oddsmakers do, and we pick out some value in a few spots.
Neither starting pitcher is good, as it's a clash between Jordan Lyles and Daulton Jefferies. There are, however, some reasons to prefer Jefferies over Lyles.
While Jeffries has struggled in a small sample of 26 1/3 MLB frames, he's got a good minor-league track record. Back in 2019, he recorded a 27.5% strikeout rate and 2.7% walk rate in Double-A. Although he has dealt with injuries since then, he's allowed just a 29.0% hard-hit rate in the bigs. He'll also be backed by an Oakland Athletics offense that has a .292 wOBA -- not good but still better than the Baltimore Orioles' .278 mark
Lyles has been a bad pitcher for a while. Since the start of 2020, he's amassed a 4.93 SIERA with a 17.4% strikeout rate. He's permitted 1.85 jacks per nine in that time. Nothing has been different through his first 10 1/3 innings this year as he's been tagged for six earned runs while walking five and punching out six.
All in all, we have this being a 5.13-3.76 victory for the Athletics. We project Oakland to win 66.8% of the time. The -134 moneyline price implies win odds of only 57.3%. That creates value in taking the A's to win, and we rate it as a three-star wager.
We also like the over as well as Oakland on the runline, both of which we assign two-star ratings.
Do note that rain could be an issue, although, as of early Wednesday, it's not expected to be too heavy.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Over 9.0 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Our algorithm expects some Fenway fireworks tonight as the Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Jays came into the year projected to be one of the game's elite offenses, and they currently sit second in homers (15) and boast a 1-2-3 atop the lineup that features George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Whew.
Toronto's offense should do some damage against Nick Pivetta. The Boston right-hander has always been able to generate a good amount of whiffs in his career, recording a 26.0% strikeout rate since the start of 2020 (162 2/3 innings). But walks and dingers have been an ongoing problem. In that same split (start of 2020), Pivetta owns a 10.1% walk rate and has given up 1.49 homers per nine.
Toronto is turning to its ace, Jose Berrios, who has stunk so far this year. While small-sample caveats obviously apply, Berrios has surrendered seven earned runs and a trio of taters in 5 1/3 innings. Those 5 1/3 innings actually cover two starts. It's been bad. Coming off a 3.65 SIERA in 2021, Berrios will surely settle down at some point, but he's got a tall task in front of him today versus a Boston offense that FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections rank fifth-best.
Our numbers have the Jays winning by a score of 5.69-4.96. That's 10.65 runs, and we give the over a 57.7% chance to hit.