MLB Betting Guide: Friday 4/15/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians
Giants Moneyline (-146): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants -1.5 (+110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is into the San Francisco Giants today in their road game at the Cleveland Guardians.
Carlos Rodon is a big reason why. Rodon broke out in a huge way last season, twirling a dazzling 2.96 SIERA with a 34.6% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 14.9% swinging-strike rate. Dude was dealin', and he opened 2022 by fanning 12 in five innings, so he picked up right where he left off.
The matchup is a good one for the electric southpaw. While Cleveland's offense has started well, FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections peg the Guardians to be a below-average offense the rest of the way.
Cleveland is turning to right-hander Zach Plesac, and he will have his hands full against a good San Fran lineup, one that ended 2021 with the fifth-best wOBA against righties (.332). Plesac doesn't have too much going for him. He recorded a 4.73 SIERA and 16.7% strikeout rate a year ago.
Our numbers have the Giants winning by a score of 5.31-3.55. That results in a two-star rating on either taking San Fran to cover or to win outright. We think they cover as 1.5-run favorites 55.3% of the time. Our projections have the Giants winning outright 66.2% of the time, which is higher than the implied odds of 59.3% from the -146 moneyline.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Over 8.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Brad Keller and Tarik Skubal are getting the ball today for the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, respectively, and our model thinks the offenses win out.
Keller dealt in his season debut, but he has a long track record of being a run-of-the-mill pitcher. Since the start of 2020, Keller owns a 4.79 SIERA and 18.9% strikeout rate. He's never had a single-season strikeout rate above 19.6% in his career.
Skubal has some swing-and-miss juice. His problem is dingers. Across 185 1/3 career innings, he's given up 2.14 homers per nine and has surrendered a 43.2% fly-ball rate.
We project Detroit to win, 4.80-4.72. That's a total of 9.52 runs, and we give the over a 58.6% chance to hit.