3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for Wednesday 8/25/21
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else's is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of bookmaker totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found who everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-rostered plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Robbie Ray, P, Toronto Blue Jays ($10,500)
Robbie Ray is one of the best pitchers in the MLB, and he's probably going to be overlooked tonight.
There are five pitchers over $10,000 tonight and another three over $9,000. To say we have a lot of choices would be an understatement, but it also opens up the possibility that one of these pitchers goes overlooked. This is where Ray could fall tonight, and with his strikeout upside, he is the ideal tournament target against the Chicago White Sox.
Ray comes in boasting a 30.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 3.29 SIERA, and 51.9% medium-contact rate. He's having arguably the best year of his career, and he could end up less popular than some of the other top pitchers. This could be due to his matchup versus the White Sox, who have plenty of power on offense but also come in with a 23.9% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 10th-worst in the league.
There's no doubt some of the other pitchers on the slate have slightly easier matchups compared to Ray, but if that makes him less popular, he's that much better for tournaments.
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Miami Marlins ($2,900)
Is Jesus Aguilar a worthy option for tournaments tonight?
The short answer is yes.
The long answer stems from the fact he is up against Josiah Gray, who can't stop giving up home runs. In 18.0 innings pitched against right-handed hitters this season, Gray is allowing 3.50 HR/9, a 61.4% fly-ball rate, and a 25.9% HR/FB rate. Yes, this is a very small sample size, but it's his first year in the Majors, and it's all we have to go on. Of course, that 61.4% fly-ball rate should come down over time, but if that's where it's at now, there's no reason we shouldn't look to jump on it.
Aguilar comes in with a .210 ISO, 115 wRC+, 45.2% fly-ball rate, and 38.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. He is sitting just under $3,000 and has power numbers like that? Yeah, he's a player I have a ton of interest in tonight for tournaments.
LaMonte Wade Jr., OF, San Francisco Giants ($3,400)
The San Francisco Giants have a rather unimpressive 4.11 implied run total tonight.
That run total has the Giants as the 13th-highest team on the slate, putting them in a spot to go overlooked. They are going up against Taijuan Walker, who has seen his season take a sharp turn down after a strong start. He now comes in with a 12.0% walk rate, 4.45 xFIP, and 40.9% fly-ball rate, yet only a 9.3% HR/FB rate versus left-handed hitters.
I've said it before, I'll say it again: a pitcher can't give up that many fly balls and so few of them end up as home runs. The league average HR/FB rate versus lefties this season is 13.2%, meaning Walker is due for some regression.
LaMonte Wade Jr has some serious power versus right-handed pitchers this season with a .310 ISO, 143 wRC+, 45.1% fly-ball rate, and 39.0% hard-contact rate. The Giants make an interesting stack tonight and shouldn't be popular on this 10-game slate.
