4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 7/27/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's full 15-game main slate.
Jordan Montgomery, SP, New York Yankees
FanDuel Salary: $7,200
Despite the fact that we have a full 15-game slate tonight, the pitching pool isn't loaded with clear top options. As a result, searching for value at pitcher and loaded up on top bats is far from the worst idea -- and Jordan Montgomery allows you to do just that.
The New York Yankees southpaw has gone through a rough stretch of matchups recently, and yet he still sports a respectable 3.96 ERA, which is backed up by a 4.00 xFIP and 4.01 SIERA. Mongomery's 24.3% strikeout rate on the season means that he possesses the upside we look for in DFS.
Tonight, the 28-year-old will be matched up with the Tampa Bay Rays for the fifth time this season. Lefties have given Tampa fits all season long, as indicated by their 92 wRC+ (ninth-worst) and 26.9% K rate (third-worst) in that split, per FanGraphs.
Though he started out with just 15 and 27 FanDuel points in his first two outings versus the Rays, Montgomery rebounded with 52 and 44 in his next two starts against them. The addition of Nelson Cruz makes this lineup a lot more dangerous against southpaws, but that risk is baked into the $7,200 salary.
Other Value Pitcher to Consider: Spenser Watkins ($6,800)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Washington Nationals
FanDuel Salary: $2,600
This is one of those instances where we get a dream matchup of hitter and pitcher splits.
The Philadelphia Phillies will have veteran lefty Matt Moore on the mound, and he hasn't exactly been good this season. To date, he's garnered a 5.79 ERA, which is backed up by a 5.68 FIP and 5.27 xFIP.
Right-handed hitters have absolutely gone to town on Moore this season, racking up a .968 OPS, .405 wOBA, and 2.48 homers per nine innings against him. Yikes.
This matchup is right up the alley of Ryan Zimmerman, who, since 2017, has accrued a .339 average, 1.017 OPS, .283 OPS, .423 wOBA, and 163 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. Oh, and he's also homered twice in nine plate appearances against Moore. Sign me up.
David Bote, 2B/3B, Chicago Cubs
FanDuel Salary: $2,600
Along with the high peripherals, Gutierrez has surrendered 1.82 dongs per nine frames, and that's to go with a mere 15.5% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate. Not great.
While he's been generous to hitters from both sides of the plate, Gutierrez actually has reverse splits, as the .286 average, .867 OPS, .368 wOBA, and 1.86 HR/9 allowed to righties are currently far worse than what opposite-handed hitters have done against him.
David Bote recently returned from an extended absence, but over his last 15 games, he's amassed a .884 OPS, 4 homers, 11 RBI, and 11 runs scored. That'll play. For his career, the 28-year-old actually has better splits against right-handed pitching.
Lourdes Gurriel, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
FanDuel Salary: $2,700
Boston Red Sox right-hander Garrett Richards has a 4.99 ERA and 4.96 SIERA this season, but he's somehow been much, much worse recently. Over his last six starts, Richards has stunk up the joint to the tune of a 7.33 ERA, 7.78 FIP, and 12.8% punch-out rate. Hitters have pelted him for a .314 average, 1.019 OPS, .426 wOBA, and 3.0 dingers per nine innings during that stretch. Wowza.
Same-sided hitters have raked against Richards all season, but over these last six starts, the 85 righties he's faced have accumulated a .355 average, 1.148 OPS, .478 wOBA, and 3.9 HR/9. I don't care how small the sample size is, that is laughably bad. That won't play well against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that ranks first in wOBA (.339) and OPS (.790), second in ISO (.196), and third in wRC+ versus righties this season.
Lourdes Gurriel got off to a slow start this season, hitting just .195 through his first 32 games, but he's been a different hitter ever since. Over his last 55 games (210 plate appearances), the 27-year-old has hit for a .305 average to go with a .846 OPS, 22 extra-base hits (9 homers), 31 RBI, and 27 runs scored.