MLB Betting Guide: Friday 10/16/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Under 7.5 (-106): 3-Star Rating out of 5
You could be doing pretty well for yourself if you bet the under on every Tampa Bay game lately, and we see that trend continuing today in Game 6 of their ALCS matchup with the Houston.
Starting with Game 4 of the Rays' ALDS meeting versus the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay's games have seen seven or fewer total runs scored for seven consecutive games, including all five contests in this ALCS. There's been exactly seven runs scored in each of the past three Astros-Rays clashes, and Tampa hasn't given up more than four runs in a game in eight straight.
The Rays have Blake Snell rested and ready, and he should continue Tampa's recent run of pitching excellence. Snell ended the 2020 regular season with a 3.57 SIERA, 31.0% strikeout rate and 15.0% swinging-strike rate, and he allowed just one earned run across five innings in Tampa Bay's 2-1 win in Game 1.
Of course, the other reason so many of Tampa Bay's games have been of the low-scoring variety lately is that the Rays' offense is struggling to put up runs. The Rays have scored three or fewer runs in three of five games in this series, and they haven't scored more than five runs in a game since Game 3 of the ALDS, a span of seven contests.
Framber Valdez is getting the nod for Houston, and he stifled Tampa Bay to the tune of two earned runs and eight punchouts across six innings in Game 1.
Our model projects this game to be a very low-scoring affair. We have the Rays winning 3.25-2.95. While a 7.5-run total is low, it's not low enough. We think the under hits 62.3% of the time and mark this as a three-star bet, making it our best bet of the day.
