MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 10/13/20

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Oct 13th, 2020

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

Under 8.5 (+102): 4-Star Rating out 5

Runs have been hard to come by in Tampa Bay games lately. Over their last four postseason contests, stretching back to the final two games of their NLDS matchup with the Yankees, Tampa's games have had an average of 4.75 total runs scored, with no games going over six runs.

We see the trend continuing tonight.

The pitching matchup has Ryan Yarbrough squaring off against Jose Urquidy, but both bullpens figure to be ready right away, especially Houston's, as the Astros are down 2-0.

Urquidy struggled with injuries in the regular season, but he had a promising rookie campaign in 2019, pitching to a 4.03 SIERA, 24.0% strikeout rate, 12.0% swinging-strike rate and 4.2% walk rate in a small sample of 41 MLB frames. Yarbrough finished 2020 with 4.44 SIERA, and he thrives at generating weak contact as opponents posted a meager 25.1% hard-hit rate against him.

Tampa's bullpen led all relief units in WAR this year, per Fangraphs, and they've been outstanding the past three games as the Rays have allowed a total of four runs in their past 27 innings.

We project the Rays to edge the Astros by a score of 3.66-3.12. That's a total of 6.78 runs, and the line is set at 8.5. We have the under marked as a four-star play and see it hitting 65.2% of the time.