KBO Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 7/11/20
When it comes to just raw talent, there is little question that Aaron Brooks (Kia Starting P; $29 on FanDuel) is at the top of the list for Saturday's KBO DFS slate. We just have to decide if that's worth a lofty salary.
Brooks has gotten off to an impressive start to his KBO career, and he has the peripherals to legitimize that performance. However, he doesn't have the easiest matchup, and he handcuffs your hitters a bit. So should we spend up for Brooks or look elsewhere?
To help answer that question, here are the starters on the slate sorted by the FanDuel salary of their team's starting pitching slot. The opposing runs per game totals can be found at My KBO Stats with the strikeout rates at Baseball Reference. The park factor is a multi-year run factor via STATIZ with 1000 being neutral and a higher number favoring hitters.
| Pitcher | Salary | L/R | Opp. | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR% | Opp. R/G | Opp. K% | Park Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks (Kia) | $29 | R | KIW | 2.36 | 1.08 | 22.8% | 5.1% | 0.7% | 5.78 | 18.3% | 1003 |
| Mike Wright (NC) | $27 | R | @LG | 3.63 | 1.35 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 5.37 | 16.2% | 959 |
| Chae-heung Choi (Samsung) | $27 | L | @KT | 3.08 | 1.23 | 18.4% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 5.89 | 18.8% | 973 |
| Jong-hoon Park (SK) | $26 | R | @HAN | 5.37 | 1.43 | 24.7% | 9.3% | 1.9% | 3.56 | 19.4% | 978 |
| Min-ho Lee (LG) | $25 | R | NC | 1.62 | 1.17 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 6.54 | 17.1% | 959 |
| Seung-ho Lee (Kiwoom) | $25 | L | @KIA | 5.33 | 1.46 | 14.0% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 5.00 | 17.1% | 1003 |
| Se-woong Park (Lotte) | $24 | R | DOO | 5.71 | 1.46 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 6.26 | 14.7% | 1022 |
| Hui-kwan Yu (Doosan) | $23 | L | @LOT | 4.87 | 1.66 | 8.9% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 4.82 | 15.9% | 1022 |
| Hyeong-jun So (KT) | $22 | R | SAM | 6.65 | 1.59 | 10.5% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 17.9% | 973 |
| Jin-wook Kim (Hanwha) | $21 | R | SK | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3.72 | 19.2% | 978 |
You can see there why Brooks is tempting even with the downsides noted. But there are at least a couple of alternatives we could consider. Let's discuss all of that and dissect how we should play things Saturday morning.
Pitchers
Between Brooks' 2.36 ERA and his 22.8% strikeout rate, it's hard to argue against him here. The opposing Kiwoom Heroes will strike out a bit, too, with an 18.3% clip in that department. Those are the positives of Brooks. The negatives are noteworthy, too, though.
Namely, despite striking out plenty, Kiwoom can still bang it, ranking fourth in the league in runs per game. Brooks is also in the second-worst park for pitching on the slate, which adds risk to his profile.
Combine it all together, and Brooks does seem to be the top cash-game option on the board. Although there are paths to failure, his baseline expectation will be higher than everybody else's due to his skills. That's valuable for cash games.
In tournaments, we have some wiggle room to deviate, which is where Jong-hoon Park (SK Starting P; $26) comes into play.
Park does have a poor 5.37 ERA for the season in large part thanks to his 9.3% walk rate. That ERA has ballooned due to a couple of bad starts, though, and he has eight strikeouts in four separate starts this year. He's facing the Hanwha Eagles, who are last in the league in both runs per game and strikeout rate. That's another spot for Park to have a ceiling game, making him an ideal tournament option.
Another mid-salaried option to consider is Min-ho Lee (LG Starting P; $25). Lee is just 18, so LG has been managing his workload, having him pitch basically once every 10 days. But when he has been out there, Lee has blown up with a 1.62 ERA. We have to push Lee down our list because he's facing the dangerous NC Dinos, but he's in a pitcher-friendly park and did excel against the Doosan Bears just two starts ago.
Lee's our third choice for tournaments behind Park and Brooks, and he's deserving of exposure if you're multi-entering.
Stacks
Because Brooks is our cash-game pitcher, we're forced to look for some value at hitter. The Lotte Giants are standout options in that regard.
Lotte is facing Hui-kwan Yu, who projects to allow a ton of balls in play thanks to his 8.9% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. Yu had a 3.25 ERA last year, but he hasn't been able to limit hard contact as successfully as he did then. Lotte doesn't strike out often, either, so we'll have plenty of opportunities for hits here.
The only top-end hitter in the Lotte order who won't have the platoon advantage is Ah-Seop Son ($13), who also happens to be the highest-salaried hitter on the team. We can pluck value here. Dae-Ho Lee ($10) continues to be undervalued, and either Hoon Jung ($9) or Chi-Hong An ($9) will likely occupy the leadoff spot. Lotte is the first place to turn when you need value at hitter.
We can find additional value from stacking the Samsung Lions against Hyeong-jun So. So is another 18-year-old hurler, making his struggles this year -- with a 6.65 ERA and 10.5% strikeout rate -- fully understandable. Samsung gets de-prioritized relative to Lotte because they aren't in as good of a park for offense, but they'll easily slot into the second peg for stacks.
With slugger Ja-Wook Koo ($12) likely to miss time with a thumb injury, we can project with more confidence that Hak-Ju Lee ($7) will hit at a favorable spot in the order. Lee hit third with Koo out last night and has a respectable .151 isolated slugging percentage this year. Utilizing Lee makes Tyler Saladino ($13) a breeze to afford, allowing us to tab those two as the anchors of any Samsung stack.
Finally, if you have salary left on the table, then you should give Doosan a look. They're facing Se-woong Park, who has had a massive dinger problem in 2020. All the main contributors on this team have salaries of $13 or higher, but the upside justifies the salary if you find yourself with the ability to splurge a bit.
