4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/13/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Lance Lynn OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (+114)
We have a slate absolutely loaded with pitching options and tons of strikeout props to look at, so let's jump in.
From a DFS perspective, there are five pitchers priced over $10K tonight, which should mean we are in for plenty of strikeouts. One pitcher to focus on tonight is Lance Lynn, who is facing off against the Toronto Blue Jays, a team we can target for strikeout props. The Blue Jays come in with a 24.5% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-worst in the league, but they also come in with a .196 ISO, which is the ninth-best in the league. There is no doubt that the Blue Jays and their young talent have some power, but they are also very undisciplined at the plate.
Lynn is showing to be one of the elite pitchers in the league this season with a 27.7% strikeout rate, producing 10.34 strikeouts per nine innings. Lynn has been absolutely remarkable as of late with eight or more strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, but with the favorable matchup tonight, he should be able to hit the over on this prop.
Chris Sale OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-158)
Sale is having a "down year" and by that, I mean his walk rate is up, he's allowing more home runs, more hard contact, and striking out fewer hitters. The last part of that -- striking out fewer hitter -- needs a bit of context, though, since he had a 38.4% strikeout rate last season and is now only at 35.3% this season. Let me make one thing clear -- a 35.3% strikeout rate is still beyond elite, and we should trust him with his 7.5 prop tonight. In his six starts since the All-Star break, Sale has posted 10 strikeouts or more three times but has also allowed five earned runs or more three times.
This prop isn't without risk, but given his 37.9% strikeout rate since the break, he is in a good spot to continue reaching for double-digit strikeouts and hit the over on this prop tonight.
Matt Boyd UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-136)
Matt Boyd is yet another pitcher who is having a solid season, but will a recent bad outing be a sign of things turning against him?
Boyd is carrying a 31.9% strikeout rate this season, which is the third-best on the slate, but is coming off what could be his worst start of the season. Last week, he faced the Kansas City Royals, where he allowed five earned runs in just 2.2 innings pitched with only one strikeout. Certainly, that's one of his worst starts of the year, and we have seen the under on his strikeout prop become rather popular tonight as a -136 favorite.
Our projections echo that, as we have him going for only 6.14 strikeouts tonight, over two full strikeouts lower than his prop.
Anthony Rendon To Hit a Home Run (+350)
Anthony Rendon comes in as the most likely Nationals hitter to go deep tonight with odds sitting at +350, and we want to focus in on him with this matchup.
He is going up against Alex Wood, who only has 14 innings pitched this season, so we have to look back to last year, where he allowed 1.15 home runs per nine innings to righty hitters, mainly from a 41.4% hard-hit rate. There is no way to tell if he will be at the same rate this season since the sample size is too small so far, leading us to rely on Rendon and his current form.
Rendon has been tearing the cover off the ball against lefty pitchers this season with a whopping .307 ISO, 50.6% hard-hit rate, and a 39.2% fly-ball rate. It's hard to describe how amazing those numbers in this split, giving us a hitter who can take nearly any lefty pitcher deep.