5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/8/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Aristides Aquino, OF, Cincinnati Reds ($2,900)
Aristides Aquino was recently called up to the majors after posting insane power numbers with 28 home runs and a .992 OPS in Triple-A. His very early results are promising with two home runs in his first 17 plate appearances with the big league club. He’s already gained some trust from Cincinnati Reds manager David Bell, as the rookie has hit cleanup in back-to-back days.
Today, Aquino will face off against Madison Bumgarner. In the minors this season, Aquino posted insane numbers against lefties. In 101 plate appearances, Aquino hit 10 home runs with a .337/.396/.696 slash line and a 21.8% strikeout rate, compared to a 26.3% strikeout rate against righties. Aquino also has both of his home runs in the majors against left-handed pitchers.
Jon Berti, SS, Miami Marlins ($2,800)
Jon Berti has quietly been tearing the cover off the ball since returning from the injured list a week ago. Obviously it’s been a small sample, but in the 29 plate appearances since returning, Berti has posted a 52.4% hard-hit rate and a 38.1% line-drive rate. He’s also been hitting either first or second in the Miami Marlins' lineup in all of his starts.
Berti will face off against Dallas Keuchel tonight. Berti has both of his home runs on the seasons against left-handed pitchers and a 1.197 OPS against lefties. On a day where there’s a lot of great pitchers on the mound, and not a lot of good cheap options, Berti stands out as one with some upside at the top of the order for the Marlins.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, San Francisco Giants ($2,700)
After his return from injury with the Reds, Scooter Gennett posted a disappointing 27.8% strikeout rate, 32.0% hard-hit rate, and 16.0% soft-contact rate in 72 plate appearances.
But since he was traded to the San Francisco Giants at the deadline, Gennett has shown signs of improvement. The strikeout rate has gone back down to 16.7%, while the hard-hit rate is back up to 46.7%, and the soft-contact rate is down to 13.3%. This small sample of 17 plate appearances would mean nothing to me in most cases, but Gennett has been extremely consistent his last two seasons, and it would make sense that he may have needed a little bit of time to shake the rust off from missing the first three months of the season.
It’s a tough matchup today against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, but there’s some upside in getting Gennett at such a cheap price.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,700)
After being called back up to the majors on June 5th, Teoscar Hernandez has quietly been really good. In 176 plate appearances, Hernandez has posted a .250/.318/.525 slash line with 12 home runs. The plate discipline still isn’t great with a 15:55 walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB:K) in that time span, but he’s regained his legitimate power upside.
Hernandez gets a pretty optimal matchup against Domingo German. In German’s last 12 starts, he’s allowed 19 home runs in 65 2/3 innings, and while he’s still posted great strikeout numbers with 10.2 per nine innings, Hernandez has a chance to take advantage of German’s biggest flaw, which is allowing the long ball.
Phillip Ervin, OF, Cincinnati Reds ($2,400)
This is one that you will have to keep an eye on, as David Bell has been reluctant to keep Phillip Ervin in the lineup everyday, but at just $2,400 dollars, Ervin represents the biggest value of the main slate.
Ervin faces left-handed pitcher Cole Hamels tonight, and Ervin’s numbers against lefties have been insanely good this season. In 46 plate appearances, Ervin has a .475/.543/.850 slash line with both of his home runs on the season coming against lefties. His plate discipline also improves against lefties, as he’s posted a 5:7 BB:K ratio against lefties, compared to a 4:22 BB:K ratio against righties.
It’s a small sample but lines up with Ervin’s career splits. If Ervin is in the Reds' lineup tonight, he will be in all of my FanDuel lineups tonight, and I’d recommend him being in yours as well.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.