4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/2/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Trevor Bauer OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Trevor Bauer is without a doubt one of the best pitchers on the slate, and we want to attack his strikeout prop tonight.
Bauer comes in with a 26.8% strikeout rate this season and has seven or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, which is the level of production we should almost certainly be seeing from him tonight. Our models have Bauer projected for 7.88 strikeouts tonight, which is the highest among any pitcher, putting him a spot to cash the over on his prop. It's not often you get one of the best pitchers in the league at positive odds for him to do what he does best, strike hitters out.
Bauer is up against the Kansas City Royals, who have a 22.9% strikeout rate this season, which is right at league average, but Bauer was able to dominate them last week with 12 strikeouts in 6.2 innings pitched.
Patrick Corbin OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Patrick Corbin is another elite pitcher on the slate and we should be taking a look at his strikeout prop as well.
A line set at 6.5 tonight against the Miami Marlins seems a bit low tonight considering he posted nine strikeouts against them just six days ago. Regardless, the even-money odds on this prop are awesome and be attacked with full confidence tonight since Corbin comes in with a 27.2% strikeout rate this season, which is the sixth highest on the slate among qualified pitchers.
We have Corbin projected for 7.5 strikeouts tonight, which is a full strikeout higher than his prop.
Charlie Blackmon To Hit a Home Run (+230)
We have Charlie Blackmon at home versus a right-handed pitcher, and that should mean one thing.
Blackmon is truly one of the best hitters in the league, and he has been obliterating right-handed pitchers this season with a .456 wOBA, .352 ISO, and a 21.8% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. His ISO is higher than lots of hitters' wOBA. Just think about that for a second. He comes in with great odds on his prop which is looking all the more likely tonight considering he is up against Jose Urquidy, who is making his major league debut.
Yes, Urquidy has some solid Minor League numbers with a 3.67 xFIP this season and a 37.0% strikeout rate, but that isn't against hitter's the same caliber as Blackmon. Trust the All-Star in this situation and go for the home run prop.
Yasiel Puig To Hit a Home Run (+240)
According to our projections, Puig comes in as the eighth most likely to hit a home run tonight, which should be too much of a surprise since the Cincinnati Reds have a 4.97 implied run total. The matchup for Puig is great since he is up against Chase Anderson, who is allowing 2.05 homers per nine to righty hitters this season, along with a 47.6% hard-hit rate and a 20.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. Giving up hard contact and having a high home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is bad, but can be amplified when at a great hitter's park like tonight.
Puig has plenty of power on his own with a .214 ISO versus righty pitchers and a 17.1% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio while at home against them this season.