4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/17/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Luis Castillo UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Castillo comes into this game with a 29.1% strikeout rate this season, which is the highest on the slate, not including Mike Clevinger. If Castillo is one of the best strikeout pitchers on the slate, why would we want to look at the under on his strikeout prop? For one, the matchup is tough and two, because his strikeout rate has dipped slightly to 27.4% over the past month. The latter is a small sample size, but it compounds the matchup problem.
He is up against the Houston Astros, who have a 17.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is the second lowest in the league. The dip in strikeouts isn't concerning overall, but now that the matchup doesn't present to be a high strikeout game, this is a spot to take the under at very favorable odds.
Patrick Corbin OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)
The over on Patrick Corbin's strikeout prop tonight offers positive odds and should be considered one to attack.
Corbin has a strong 26.4% strikeout rate this season and is now up against the Philadelphia Phillies, who have a modest 20.8% strikeout rate versus lefty pitchers. This might not be the most strikeout heavy matchup, but our projections have him racking up 7.55 strikeouts tonight, which would hit the over on his prop. Corbin's 12.2% swinging strike rate this season is among the best on the slate and he should be able to handle this Phillies lineup, who have a very average 100 wRC+.
Corbin and his elite slider should be able to handle the Phillies and cash the over on his strikeout prop tonight.
Shohei Ohtani To Hit a Home Run (+230)
The home runs should be there for them since they are up against Edwin Jackson, who only has a few innings under his belt this season, but if we look to 2018, we can see that he had a 5.38 xFIP, allowed 1.30 homers per nine innings, a 42.9% fly-ball rate, and a 36.2% hard-hit rate to lefty hitters.
Jackson gives up home runs, and that shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who has been following baseball for any number of years now. Things won't change for him tonight up against the Angles, who have plenty of power hitters, one of which is Shohei Ohtani, who has plenty of power to cash in on his home run prop tonight.
Ohtani has a .213 wOBA, 47.8% hard-hit rate, and a 50.0% home-run-to-fly-ball rate this season versus right-handed pitchers. Yes, that is all from a smaller sample size since he started the year on the injured list, but the power was there for him last year with his .344 ISO against righty pitchers. This is all shown by the fact Ohtani is our highest projected hitter to hit a home run tonight.
Yasmani Grandal To Hit a Home Run (+320)
This might seem like a bit of an off-the-board pick tonight, but Yasmani Grandal has favorable odds to hit a home run and is against a pitcher worth attacking.
That pitcher is Joey Lucchesi, who is allowing a 35.4% hard-hit rate, a modest 38.0% fly-ball rate, which all leads to him giving up 1.46 homers per nine innings to righty hitters this season. Grandal, the switch-hitting catcher has 15 home runs on the season, five of which are against lefty pitchers.
Despite fewer home runs against lefty pitchers this season, Grandal's numbers against lefty pitchers are actually better than they are against righty pitchers. A .303 ISO vs left-handed pitchers compared to a .247 ISO versus right-handed pitchers and a 54.7% hard-hit rate versus left-handed pitchers compared to 44.9% versus right-handed pitchers.
The underlying stats are there for Grandal, time for him to cash in on his home run prop tonight versus Lucchesi.