DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 4/30/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Trevor Bauer ($10,900 on DraftKings): There are plenty of options on the mound tonight, but Trevor Bauer stands out as the best option on the slate. His numbers in 2018 were elite, in the form of a 30.8 percent strikeout rate, a slate-best 2.44 FIP with just 0.46 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In addition to Bauer's numbers, he has about as good of a matchup as one can have as he faces the Miami Marlins. They lead the Majors in strikeouts against right-handed pitching, striking out at a 27.5 percent rate, and their team weighted on-base average (wOBA) is dead last at .272.
Zack Greinke ($9,700): After getting blown up on opening day, giving up seven earned runs and four home runs, Zack Greinke has really settled down. While he has given up four home runs in the five starts following opening day, he has only allowed eight earned runs, including back-to-back shutouts. He has put up 22-plus DraftKings points in each of those games and is taking on a New York Yankees team that is riddled with injuries. While Greinke isn't much of a strikeout pitcher, his 27.5 percent strikeout rate to start 2019 would be his best since his 2011 season with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Value Pitcher
Griffin Canning ($7,800): Griffin Canning will make his first career start tonight for the Los Angeles Angels. He'll make this start in front of his home crowd and against a Toronto Blue Jays team that strikes out at a 27.1 percent clip against right-handed pitching. Additionally, their .298 wOBA ranks 23rd and is not very threatening. Sure, now they have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their lineup, but he is still adjusting to Major League pitching. Canning has a 28.3 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A ball this season, albeit in just 16 innings, but his 24.5 percent strikeout rate last season in Triple-A means there could be something there. It's a cheaper option in a very good matchup. Keep an eye out for any sort of pitch limit, though, just in case.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Javier Baez ($5,600): After completely dominating last season, there were plenty of people thinking there would be a bit of a regression for Javier Baez this season. Well, he has been pretty great once again, with his .315 AVG, 9 home runs and 22 RBI in the early going. Baez brought plenty of power against right-handed pitching last season, with a .361 wOBA and .263 isolated power (ISO), and he has a solid matchup against Felix Hernandez. King Felix isn't what he used to be, and his 38.7 percent hard-hit rate and 34.0 percent fly-ball rate led to an abysmal 16.6 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate in 2018.
Tim Anderson ($5,400): Tim Anderson is bringing a unique element of power and speed this season and has been one of the best hitters in baseball through the first month of the season. He's crushed the ball with a .375 AVG and 1.009 OPS alongside 10 stolen bases, 6 home runs and 18 RBI. He has a premium matchup against Baltimore Orioles right-hander Andrew Cashner, a pitcher that struggled last season. Cashner gave up a 36.2 percent fly-ball rate and a modest 32.5 percent hard-hit rate, which led to a 13.6 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. His 23.4 percent line-drive rate could get him into a lot of trouble against Anderson who has smashed righties this season with a .466 wOBA and a .302 ISO.
Bryce Harper ($5,100): His time in Philadelphia has been alright, but he is striking out way too much. He has a career 21.3 percent strikeout rate, but this season that number is way up to 28.8 percent. He did smash right-handed pitching in 2018 with a .379 wOBA and a .258 ISO which bodes well as he takes on Detroit Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull. Tyson Ross was initially slotted to start here, but given that Turnbill is also a right-handed pitcher, the numbers still stand out for Harper.
Value Hitters
Eugenio Suarez ($4,100): Jason Vargas hasn't made it to five innings pitched since his first and has looked pretty bad this season. It is not surprising when you take into account that in 2018 he gave up a 39.4 percent fly-ball rate and a 16.7 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. While his 5.77 ERA was high, it was a bit inflated, even though his 5.02 FIP is not much better. His matchup against the Cincinnati Reds isn't that bad, but Eugenio Suarez absolutely smashed left-handed pitchers last season. His .426 wOBA and .273 ISO against southpaws put him in a great spot against the disastrous Vargas.
Rougned Odor ($4,000): His 35.9 percent strikeout rate is holding him back a lot this season. While his batting average is never very good, his career 21.6 percent strikeout rate is significantly lower and really dragging down his average. His career .246 AVG and .278 BABIP aren't very good, but his .158 AVG and .242 BABIP this season are bound to turn around. Luckily, his strikeout rate should be non-factor tonight -- to an extent -- as he takes on Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Jordan Lyles, who had just a 22.6 percent strikeout rate and a lowly 10.3 percent swinging-strike rate.
Ji-Man Choi ($3,900): Ji-Man Choi brings plenty of power to the plate tonight, especially against right-handed pitching. Last season, he crushed righties to the tune of a .384 wOBA and .256 ISO. His power against righties is down a bit but his .395 wOBA and .186 ISO are still impressive. Luckily, his opposing pitcher -- Jake Junis of the Kansas City Royals -- gave up an incredibly bad 41.0 percent hard-hit rate, 88.2 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 37.1 percent fly-ball rate, leading to a 16.2 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate in 2018.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
