3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/18/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Javier Baez Will Record A Hit (-220)
Sometimes the chalk calls your name, and with how highly our models are projecting Javier Baez on Friday, it's hard not to lay the cash for his odds to record at least one hit tonight.
After his seven-game hit streak to begin this season, Baez has cooled off a bit, but a matchup against Homer Bailey could change that. Baez owns a .389 wOBA and .333 BABIP versus righties this season, and our models like him for 1.3 total hits.
Eric Hosmer OVER 2 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+120)
Eric Hosmer is riding a six-game hit streak coming in to Friday night, and our models are pretty high on his odds to get on base and possibly produce a run. However, Bovada has his total of runs, hits, and RBI at only two against right-hander Ivan Nova.
Across 98 total batters faced, left-handers have a .387 wOBA against Nova this season. Hosmer has also been very good against righties with a .379 wOBA, and he owns a combined 57 runs, hits, and RBI over 121 plate appearances in the split. Our models project Hosmer for 4.58 plate appearances and 2.61 runs, hits, and RBI.
Michael Wacha OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Michael Wacha has produced three quality starts in the month of May, but has yet to record a win in any of those three starts. However, he's up against the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, which means his strikeout prop could be a fine value.
The Phillies own a team strikeout rate of 25.1% this season, and against right-handers it goes up to 26.3%. Even with some slight chalk on the over at -140, our models project Wacha for 5.42 strikeouts Friday in St. Louis.