MLB LCS Odds Update: Drama in Boston, Cardinals in Control

The Red Sox celebrate their walk-off victory last night.

Who doesn’t love October baseball? This year’s postseason has contained more than its fair share of drama and we are not even halfway through the League Championship Series. Pitching, Carlos Beltran, and Big Papi have been the biggest storylines thus far and there will surely be more as the rest of the LCS drama unfolds. As we enjoy these storylines, let’s check in on the odds to see who is most likely to move on to the World Series.

Red Sox vs. Tigers

If you haven’t heard by now, David Ortiz saved the hopes and dreams of every man, woman, and child in Boston last night with one swing of the bat. That was more than a game-changing swing; that was a series altering and perhaps season saving swing that allowed Boston to head to Detroit tied at one game apiece. Had Ortiz made an out in that bases loaded, two out situation the Sox would have to face Justin Verlander in a must-win game, an easy task for no team. Instead, despite a poor offensive showing in most of the series thus far, the odds for the Sox to win the series remain almost the same as it did before Game 2, at 46.09%. This means that the Tigers are still favored, but last night’s drama allowed Ortiz and Boston to remain even with the Tigers who have outplayed them for most of this series.

How many games will this series require? The odds say that the series is very likely to move back to Boston for Game 6 and possibly 7, with 'Tigers in six' being the most likely scenario at 20.22%. It is worth noting that Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer will take the ball again that game, and if he can replicate last night’s performance, the Tigers will likely be spraying champagne in the visitors clubhouse in Fenway. If the Red Sox win, the odds say that they will do so in 7 games, at 19.34%. This series has had its fair share of drama already, so look for more in Motown as Verlander and the Tigers battle it out with John Lackey and the Sox tomorrow night.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals

Carlos Beltran and Michael Wacha have been the storylines of the NLCS thus far, with Beltran nearly singlehandedly winning Game 1 and Wacha throwing 6 and 2/3 innings of shutout baseball in Game 2. To make things worse for the Dodgers, Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright, who has been nearly unhittable this postseason, will take the ball tonight looking to give his team a 3-0 lead in the series. The Dodgers will counter with lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu and his 3.00 regular season ERA, but with the way Wainwright has been pitching, a quality start may not be enough to get the Dodgers back into this series.

The potential absence of star shortstop Hanley Ramirez for a second straight game hurts their chances as well, as he deals with sore ribs stemming from a hit by pitch in Game 1. These factors, including not having to face Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke for the next two games, contribute to the Cardinals being overwhelming favorites to advance to the Fall Classic, at a whopping 81.02%. Five games is the most likely scenario for a Cardinals clincher at 24.09%, though a sweep and six game victory are also likely, at 22.72% and 20.74% respectively.