Fantasy Baseball: The 25 Most Powerful Hitters Who Didn't Reach 30 Homers in 2017
Hitters Ranked 25th to 13th
It's not every day that we see the reigning American League MVP finish so far off the pace when discussing anything with regard to offensive performance, right? Jose Altuve still managed to posted the highest fWAR of this entire group and he also won the World Series, so he's probably doing just fine.
| Rank | Player | PA | BB% | K% | HR | R | RBI | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jose Altuve | 662 | 8.8% | 12.7% | 24 | 112 | 81 | .202 | .405 | 160 | 7.5 |
| 24 | Javier Baez | 508 | 5.9% | 28.3% | 23 | 75 | 75 | .207 | .326 | 98 | 2.2 |
| 23 | Corey Dickerson | 629 | 5.6% | 24.2% | 27 | 84 | 62 | .207 | .341 | 115 | 2.6 |
| 22 | Andrew McCutchen | 650 | 11.2% | 17.8% | 28 | 94 | 88 | .207 | .360 | 122 | 3.7 |
| 21 | Chris Taylor | 568 | 8.8% | 25.0% | 21 | 85 | 72 | .208 | .361 | 126 | 4.7 |
| 20 | Justin Turner | 543 | 10.9% | 10.3% | 21 | 72 | 71 | .208 | .400 | 151 | 5.5 |
| 19 | Chris Davis | 524 | 11.6% | 37.2% | 26 | 65 | 61 | .208 | .312 | 92 | 0.2 |
| 18 | Matt Carpenter | 622 | 17.5% | 20.1% | 23 | 91 | 69 | .209 | .361 | 123 | 2.9 |
| 17 | Josh Bell | 620 | 10.6% | 18.9% | 26 | 75 | 90 | .211 | .338 | 108 | 0.8 |
| 16 | Tommy Pham | 530 | 13.4% | 22.1% | 23 | 95 | 73 | .214 | .398 | 148 | 5.9 |
| 15 | Todd Frazier | 576 | 14.4% | 21.7% | 27 | 74 | 76 | .215 | .335 | 108 | 3.0 |
| 14 | Nicholas Castellanos | 665 | 6.2% | 21.4% | 26 | 73 | 101 | .218 | .341 | 111 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Eddie Rosario | 589 | 5.9% | 18.0% | 27 | 79 | 78 | .218 | .349 | 116 | 2.5 |
Don't Call it a Comeback
While a solid second half saved Andrew McCutchen's overall numbers, his 2016 campaign for the Pittsburgh Pirates was rather disappointing -- his 0.6 fWAR and 105 wRC+ were easily the worst of his big league career. He did rebound nicely following a slow start to 2017, though, evidenced by his 3.7 fWAR and 122 wRC+.
McCutchen's performance on fly balls improved quite a bit when looking at these two years. After posting a 138 wRC+ and .476 ISO for this batted-ball event in 2016, those numbers improved to 170 and .577, respectively, this past year. This spike in production is notable since his hard-hit rate actually decreased (42.4% to 38.0%), but his 12.9% soft-hit rate on flies was one of the lowest he's ever posted (and much lower than his 18.3% rate from the prior season).
The Dodgers' Unexpected Contributor
The Los Angeles Dodgers didn't break their World Series drought, but a lot of things did go right for them this year. Chris Taylor was definitely one of those things. After posting a 69 wRC+ and .076 ISO (with just one homer) through his first 318 big league plate appearances, he completely turned his career around by improving those numbers to 126 and .208 in 568 plate appearances thanks to a 21-homer campaign.
Taylor's production looks awfully similar when we break it down by half -- he slugged 10 homers with a 126 wRC+ prior to the All-Star break, followed by another 11 dingers and a 125 wRC+ after the midsummer classic. What did change drastically, though, was his batted-ball profile.
While the right-handed hitter's line-drive rate dropped nearly six percentage points, his ground-ball rate (44.6% to 39.0%) and fly-ball rate (29.5% to 41.0%) basically did an about-face between the first half and second half.
Potential for More?
Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Josh Bell showed some intriguing potential during his 152-plate-appearance debut in 2016, even if his -0.4 fWAR may say otherwise. With plate discipline being a hallmark of his offensive approach throughout the minor leagues, he kept that up in his abbreviated rookie season with a 13.8% walk rate.
It was more of the same in 2017 with expanded playing time, as his walk rate settled in at 10.6%. However, there are a couple things he could improve upon to begin unlocking his potential as a 25-year-old next year. And they just so happen to go hand in hand.
The sample sizes are very different, but one thing he did change between 2016 and 2017 was his ability to pull the ball more often -- Bell's pull rate went from 22.3% as a rookie to 41.5% in his sophomore campaign. Another aspect of his game he'll have to tackle moving forward is something he's dealt with for most of his professional career, and that's lots of grounders (50.9% ground-ball rate as a big leaguer).
Hitting so many ground balls obviously caps any player's offensive ceiling with regard to power, so it's impressive that he accomplished what he did for the Pirates in his first full season. If he just ends up being one of those grounder-dependent power hitters, though, he'll need to improve his quality of contact. The average MLB hitter produced an 18.9% soft-hit rate and 31.8% hard-hit rate in 2017, numbers that Bell (20.6% soft-hit rate, 32.6% hard-hit rate in '17) must distance himself from a little more.
