Who Were the Luckiest and Unluckiest Starting Pitchers in July?
Pitchers Outperforming Their Peripherals
The below table displays the 15 pitchers who outperformed their SIERA the most in July. As we can see, looking at this kind of data can bring us all different kinds of hurlers with various styles.
| Rank | Player | K% | BB% | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | SIERA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lance Lynn | 17.0% | 7.1% | 0.49 | .238 | 84.8% | 1.47 | 4.82 | -3.35 |
| 2 | Andrew Cashner | 14.4% | 9.6% | 1.01 | .197 | 79.8% | 2.36 | 5.29 | -2.93 |
| 3 | Marcus Stroman | 19.1% | 14.5% | 0.00 | .314 | 78.7% | 2.03 | 4.73 | -2.70 |
| 4 | Parker Bridwell | 19.6% | 5.9% | 0.68 | .216 | 89.6% | 1.69 | 4.39 | -2.70 |
| 5 | Drew Pomeranz | 19.7% | 12.5% | 0.50 | .290 | 80.9% | 2.72 | 5.17 | -2.45 |
| 6 | Brent Suter | 21.7% | 4.4% | 0.30 | .286 | 83.9% | 1.50 | 3.84 | -2.34 |
| 7 | Paul Blackburn | 10.6% | 7.3% | 0.70 | .242 | 75.4% | 3.05 | 5.33 | -2.28 |
| 8 | Jake Arrieta | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.13 | .163 | 81.2% | 2.25 | 4.52 | -2.27 |
| 9 | Jhoulys Chacin | 21.0% | 10.9% | 0.63 | .247 | 84.3% | 2.51 | 4.68 | -2.17 |
| 10 | JC Ramirez | 16.4% | 13.3% | 0.61 | .287 | 75.8% | 3.34 | 5.33 | -1.99 |
| 11 | Gio Gonzalez | 22.7% | 8.0% | 0.64 | .193 | 82.8% | 2.14 | 4.10 | -1.96 |
| 12 | R.A. Dickey | 20.4% | 10.2% | 0.49 | .317 | 82.0% | 2.70 | 4.65 | -1.95 |
| 13 | Jacob Faria | 18.4% | 13.6% | 0.93 | .275 | 80.4% | 3.72 | 5.59 | -1.87 |
| 14 | Chad Kuhl | 18.7% | 11.9% | 0.27 | .286 | 72.8% | 3.27 | 5.03 | -1.76 |
| 15 | Clayton Kershaw | 35.5% | 4.3% | 0.36 | .255 | 96.6% | 0.72 | 2.40 | -1.68 |
How Did He Just Do That?
One of the best skills that Toronto Blue Jays hurler Marcus Stroman has is his ability to generate ground balls at an elite level -- among qualified starters, only Lance McCullers (63.4%) has a higher mark in this department than Stroman's 62.7%. And after looking at his July stats, you better believe the 69.4% ground-ball rate he produced was a big reason why he outperformed his peripherals as much as he did.
That was easily his highest ground-ball rate of any month this season, and he paired it with a season-low 27.9% hard-hit rate. Opposing hitters put the ball in the air just 14.1% of the time, and nobody managed to slug a homer off the right-hander. Not exactly a sustainable trend we can count on, but it helps shed light on how he produced a 2.03 ERA despite a 14.5% walk rate.
Maybe Jake Is Getting His Groove Back
Jake Arrieta probably wishes that his final year before hitting free agency started out a little smoother than it did, but he at least turned the corner a bit this past month. His 2.25 July ERA looks wonderful, but that .163 BABIP is obviously going to be a red flag no matter what.
It actually seems like he earned it a bit, though. Arrieta's 50.0% ground-ball rate wasn't even close to Stroman's, but he managed to post his best soft-hit rate allowed (25.6%) and hard-hit rate allowed (18.9%) of any month this season. It's next to impossible to keep his BABIP that low, but it's encouraging for us to at least see that there's a clear reason why it's at that level.
What isn't encouraging is the direction his strikeout rate and walk rate are going. In April and May, he posted a 26.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate -- which was much more in line with the version of Arrieta that won a Cy Young award. But since the beginning of June, those rates have worsened to 18.8% and 9.6%, respectively.
This Is Why Clayton Kershaw Should Never Get Hurt
Whether you're a Los Angeles Dodgers fan or not, it's impossible to not be in awe of the straight filth Clayton Kershaw brings to the mound every five days. But over the last two years, it seems like he ends up on the disabled list right when he's at his filthiest.
Just take a look at what he did in July as proof -- he tossed 25 innings and easily posted the best strikeout rate, walk rate and ERA among this group of 15 hurlers. Of course, with a career strand rate of 78.4% entering this season, the 96.6% mark he posted this past month will likely regress once he's healthy enough to pitch again.
Still, it's not like he would've performed badly if that number wasn't so high, which is evidenced by his sparkling 2.40 SIERA. I think I can speak for just about everyone when I say, get well soon, Clayton. And as quickly as possible.
