Fantasy Baseball: 7 Late-Round Hitters With Stolen-Base Upside
Leonys Martin, Seattle Mariners
NFBC ADP: 242.06 | Projected Steals: 22
Because of consistently solid defense in the outfield, Leonys Martin seems to have a lock on playing time for the Seattle Mariners. And after churning out 24 steals and 15 home runs in 576 plate appearances last year, there is a reason to sniff around here.
The problem with Martin is he's not going to help you in many categories outside of steals. His strikeout rate last year was a career-high 25.9%, pushing his batting average down to .247. On top of that, Roster Resource projects that Martin will bat ninth for the Mariners after batting mostly seventh and eighth last year. That explains and justifies the big gap between him and Davis.
So what about those 15 dingers last year? It almost doubled his career high, and if he could duplicate that, then there would be more reason for optimism. Thankfully, his batted-ball data shows that this new plateau may not have been a fluke.
Here's a comparison of Martin's hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate through his first few seasons to what he did last year. It did come with an up-tick in strikeouts, but this seems like a sustainable change.
| Split | Hard-Hit Rate | Fly-Ball Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Through 2015 | 24.9% | 29.0% |
| In 2016 | 29.5% | 36.8% |
Duplicating this would provide two benefits. First, it would allow him to go for double-digit long balls again. Second, it could allow Martin to hit more at the top of the order than his current projection. It's not a certainty that he can do it again, but that hope helps make him worth a look.
If Martin winds up batting high on the charts, that will wind up hurting someone else on the Mariners. That someone could be the person who is next on our list and currently projected to hold down that very leadoff spot.
