Fantasy Baseball: 5 MLB Prospects Who Could Break Out in 2017
Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres
Why There's Breakout Potential
Getting your foot wet in the big leagues couldn't have gone much better than it did for San Diego Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe in 2016. After slashing .306/.336/.557 with 30 homers, 34 doubles and 105 RBI's with Triple-A El Paso (good for a 131 wRC+), he made the most of his September call-up.
Renfroe accumulated just 36 plate appearances with the Padres, but he posted a ridiculous 1.189 OPS with 4 homers, 3 doubles, 14 RBI's and 8 runs scored. Not too shabby for playing in just 11 games.
The most obvious area of appeal here is Renfroe's power. While the Pacific Coast League has been notorious for being hitter-friendly, this surge didn't exactly come out of nowhere. Check out his minor-league progression in homers, RBI and Isolated Power (ISO) since beginning his professional career in 2013.
| Year | PAs | Home Runs | Doubles | RBI | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 183 | 6 | 14 | 25 | .188 |
| 2014 | 567 | 21 | 33 | 75 | .203 |
| 2015 | 558 | 20 | 27 | 78 | .190 |
| 2016 | 563 | 30 | 34 | 105 | .251 |
There's obviously a spike in power during the 2016 season, but it's not as if it wasn't already there. Although Petco Park has earned the reputation of being a pitcher-friendly venue, some modifications have shifted that thinking.
That's also shown by the 2016 Park Factors from ESPN. Petco isn't in the same league as Coors Field and Yankee Stadium, but they're no longer in the bottom-third of the league with regard to runs scored, homers and base hits being recorded. All that bodes well for Renfroe, who's currently slated to be San Diego's starting right fielder, per Roster Resource.
Why it Might Not Happen
This one is pretty obvious, but if Renfroe is going to be a successful big leaguer and fantasy baseball commodity, that 2.8% walk rate from his September call-up has to improve.
Of course, numbers will be skewed with such a small sample size, but this has been a trend with the outfielder for a few years. Check out his progression in walk rate at each stop he's made throughout his pro career.
| Year | Level | PAs | BB Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | A- | 111 | 4.50% |
| 2013 | A | 72 | 5.60% |
| 2014 | A+ | 316 | 8.90% |
| 2014 | AA | 251 | 10% |
| 2014 | AZ Fall | 113 | 7.10% |
| 2015 | AA | 463 | 7.10% |
| 2015 | AAA | 95 | 4.20% |
| 2016 | AAA | 563 | 3.90% |
| 2016 | MLB | 36 | 2.80% |
So, this is not exactly a sample-size problem -- it's been going on for a while. It'll tough for him to rack up the power and run production numbers to make him a fantasy stud if his plate discipline doesn't improve. Because with more of an opportunity, opposing pitchers will find a way to get him out.
