5 MLB Hitters Most Likely to Regress Based on Their Batted-Ball Numbers

Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins

LD%: 15.9% | Hard%: 34.7% | BABIP: .280 | Expected BABIP: .276 | ISO: .278 | Expected ISO: .192

After the best statistical season of his career, Brian Dozier has become a hot commodity on the trade market. However, with a line-drive percentage almost five points below the league average, any team that trades for Dozier should expect some regression.

Dozier hit .268/.340/.546 with a .370 wOBA and 132 wRC+ in 2016 while posting 5.9 fWAR, all career-highs for the Minnesota Twins' second baseman. With just a quick glance at his .280 BABIP, one might think he was unlucky, when in fact, he was actually getting lucky.

Dozier's BABIP was four points higher than expected, due to his career-low line-drive percentage, while his hard-hit percentage jumped to a career-high almost six percentage points higher than his normal. All this, along with a 18.4 percent HR/FB ratio, about six percentage points higher than his career average and the league average, gave way to a remarkable season.

Regression is coming, though. Dozier's line-drive percentage may regress upwards to his career rate, but his hard-hit rate and HR/FB ratio are certainly also going to regress. That isn't to say Dozier can't put together another fine season for the Twins (or wherever he ends up), but you can't expect another 5.0 fWAR performance.

Steamer projects Dozier to slash .247/.330/.449 with a .333 wOBA and 107 wRC+ while posting 3.1 fWAR, a significant regression, but still a good season for the second baseman.