MLB

5 MLB Hitters Most Likely to Regress Based on Their Batted-Ball Numbers

Ari Ross  —  @aross50 Dec 19th, 2016
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Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs

LD%: 20.3% | Hard%: 34.3% | BABIP: .309 | Expected BABIP: .303 | ISO: .252 | Expected ISO: .189

Similar to Dozier, Anthony Rizzo hit the ball pretty hard in 2016 (34.3 percent hard-hit rate) en route to slashing .292/.385/.544 with a .391 wOBA and 145 wRC+. And with a .309 BABIP, Rizzo wasn't the luckiest of hitters in the MLB.

Still, with a line-drive percentage right around the league average, and a hard-hit percentage only just above average, some regression can be expected from the Chicago Cubs' first baseman.

While Rizzo had just an above average hard-hit rate in 2016, which was also a career-high for him, he had one of the Top-20 ISO's in baseball. Putting two-and-two together, his ISO is bound to drop since his actual ISO from 2016 was 63 points higher than expected.

Steamer projects Rizzo to hit .279/.381/.523 with a .382 wOBA and 139 wRC+, with his BABIP dropping to .290 and his ISO to .245. Not too significant of a regression, but certainly one that is coming and bound to happen after a terrific season.

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