Filly Nest Is the Top Value Win Contender in the 2022 Belmont Stakes
The 2022 Belmont Stakes is Saturday, June 11 with post time at 6:49 p.m. EST. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for the 1.5-mile “Test of the Champion” at Belmont Park.
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(I may reference BRIS and Equibase's Speed Figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Morning Line Odds: 8/1
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Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by jockey Jose Ortiz, Nest was installed at 8/1 on the morning line odds.
Nest is the 24th filly to run in the Belmont Stakes, the first since 2013. She is trying to become just the fourth filly to win the grueling 1.5-mile race, something Rags to Riches did in 2007.
Nest has improved in each of her last three starts, and this is just her third start since February. Although she finished runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks to snap her three-race winning streak, she was running close to a brutally fast pace and still laid out strong BRIS pace figures. In her dominating win in the Ashland Stakes, she posted a 106 Equibase Speed Figure, which is tied with Rich Strike for the second-best career clip in this field.
Nest is bred to run longer distances as a daughter of the great Curlin, and out of a dam by Belmont Stakes winner and 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy.
Pletcher has sent a record 33 horses to the Belmont Stakes, and he has won the race three times, including his first with the filly Rags to Riches. Pletcher has also trained six runner-up finishers in the Belmont.
Over the last 16 years, there have been 10 horses win the Belmont Stakes at odds of 6/1 or greater, and eight of the winners held double-digit odds at post time. Nest offers the best value in this field and is a top win contender.