HORSE RACING

Kentucky Derby Predictions: Why the Experts Are Picking Charge It

Jay Ginsbach  —  @FairwayJay May 4th, 2022
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is May 7th, and 20 of the top 3-year-olds will Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. Which horses should you bet on at TVG?

The 2022 Kentucky Derby is on May 7th with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET. Using TVG projections and Horse Racing Nation as a guide, here are the horse profiles for America’s biggest and most popular race.

New players, get your first win-type wager on a single horse in any race at any track risk-free up to $200 with TVG: Bet the Derby!

As always, check the program for racing information after the post position draw on May 2nd, and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure and BRIS and Beyer speed figures, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

#8 Charge It

Morning Line Odds: 20/1
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Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by jockey Luis Saez, Charge It was installed at 20/1 on the morning line odds, breaking from post No. 8. Charge It has just three races under his saddle -- all as a 3-year-old. He broke his maiden in his second start in February and posted a very strong 103 Equibase Speed Figure.

Then in his stakes debut in the Florida Derby, he was respected by the bettors at 3/1 odds and finished second behind White Abarrio, but in front of the favorite, Simplification. Charge It was unable to keep a straight line in the stretch, but his continued maturity and growth provides a lot of upside potential for this lightly-raced, talented son of Tapit.

Charge It will be on sharp players added tickets and parii-mutuel exotic wagers including exacta, trifecta and superfecta. His recent workouts have been solid at Churchill Downs leading up to the Derby including 47.4 seconds going 4 furlongs the past week.

Charge It does come up a little short of some key trends and respected metrics in horse racing when determining a contender or winner of the Kentucky Derby. His best Beyer Speed Figure is 93, and his best BRIS Speed Rating at 98.

History shows that 27 of the last 30 Kentucky Derby winners (90.0%) have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. Also, 18 of the past 22 Kentucky Derby winners (81.8%) had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 prior to the race.