Belmont Horse Racing Picks for Thursday 6/24/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Constitutionalrage and Write This Down, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 4/1
Race 6 is a Maiden Claiming race for state-bred fillies and mares going 7 furlongs on the turf. Kaz’s Princess (4/1) comes into this race with the best overall speed figures on turf, but that was in her only turf try last summer.
The numberFire algorithm projects the order of finish as Afleeting Glance (4/1) to win over Make or Break (7/2) and Hey It’s Tati (9/2). Afleeting Glance won in February after a number of close calls, but her speed figures are lacking in most of her 12 races. Make or Break has one win in 22 starts.
Look towards two other lightly-raced runners who raced May 15. Write This Down (4/1) has leading jockey and strong stretch runner Joel Rosario riding and can carry a pace-pressing trip better. Constitutionalrage (7/2) finished seventh just behind Write This Down in her third start as the co-favorite but had a poor start and steadied to fall way behind. She’s has been working very well since that race off a long layoff with a consistent work tab and is ready to improve.
Catch A Big and Jakarta, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 5/1
Race 8 is a high-end Allowance race for fillies and mares sprinting 6 furlongs on the inner turf. True Castle (6/1) has been scratched, and the favorite Catch A Bid (5/2) is projected to hit the board. But the numberFire data likes Jakarta (5/1) to win in front of Madeleine Must (5/1).
Robin Sparkles (9/5) is the favorite with five wins in eight starts including a minor stakes race here at the end of May. She also has a pair of runner-up finishes, including another stake race, and she now moves back to Allowance company.
Catch A Bid is a closer for new trainer Joe Sharp, who has a proven ROI in short sprints at Belmont.
Jakarta is a proven stakes runner with solid speed figures. The 6-year-old is winless in four starts this year, but she has eight wins in 22 starts and a jockey change to top rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. for EPO trainer Mike Maker.
Madeleine Must makes her second start off a long layoff following a third-place finish here three weeks ago. Her speed figures are still not up to the other two picks' best.
Barre and Masu, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 9/2
Race 9 is a Maiden Claiming race for state-bred fillies and mares going 7 furlongs on the turf. The numberFire algorithm projects the order of finish as Barre (7/2), Mazal Eighteen (8/1), and Lemon Taffy (5/2), who breaks from the rail with first time Lasix and Belmont Stakes-winning jockey Luis Saez riding.
Horse Racing Radar notes that Barre makes her first start and races for the powerful team of jockey Joel Rosario and Christophe Clement. She also gets first time Lasix.
Lemon Taffy ran a competitive speed figure in her turf debut in May, but that was against a marginal field of runners and a slower pace.
Masu (9/2) has top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. taking over, with EPO trainer Rudy Rodriguez expecting a solid 2021 debut for a more mature 3-year-old after going 0-for-3 last year