​Santa Anita Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 2/13/21

It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.

Starting at 3:30 p.m. EST, we have 9 races at Santa Anita Park. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Chaos Theory and Highly Distorted, Race 5

FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/5 and Ghoul 5/2

Race 5 is an Allowance race for older horses sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf. EPO trainer Peter Miller has two entries, Ghoul (7/2) with strong stretch rider Joel Rosario aboard and The Black Album (5/1) with leading jockey Flavien Prat riding. Ghoul won here at this level six weeks ago and then ran a faster 102 speed figure when finishing fifth in a minor stakes race three weeks ago.

But numberFire’s algorithm projects favorite Chaos Theory (9/5) to win with top turf rider Umberto Rispoli aboard. Guaranteed Tip Sheet makes Chaos Theory a best bet at low odds. Chaos Theory drops down in class to a level he was claimed at last summer by trainer John Sadler. The son of Curlin has won 6-of-14 starts and makes his second start at Santa Anita after finishing fifth here last month in stakes company with a 104 speed figure. He’ll likely be rallying from off the pace with a good run to the finish.

Highly Distorted (5/2) is a contender on the front end who could shake loose with a quick break ready from top gate jockey Abel Cedillo. But notes from Horse Racing Radar show that since late December, all but one turf sprint at this distance was won by a deep closer.

Tropical Terror, Race 7

FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1

Race 7 is an Allowance race route for state breds going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Favorite Clayton Delaney (3/1) will take money as he stretches out another furlong after two runner-up finishes in his recent races. But numberFire’s data projects Tizhotndusty (6/1) to win as a potential pacesetter who is now going long on the turf.

Tropical Terror has won at this condition, as a Maiden. He’s been compromised in recent races and was in over his head last time out in stakes company. Horse Racing Radar projects plenty of pace in this event, and Tropical Terror looks like an attractive pick to run them down late with jockey Mike Smith riding.

Mr. Brownstone (12/1) is overlooked but could add a good payoff underneath.

Hard Not to Love and Qahira, Race 8

FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 4/1

Race 8 is the feature $200K, Grade II Santa Monica Stakes at 7 furlongs. The favorite and top pick of numberFire is Hard Not to Love (7/2). Super Screener agrees, and Horse Racing Radar notes he’s hit the board 10 times in 10 starts at Santa Anita. Hard Not to Love has raced in seven straight graded stakes events, including six at Santa Anita, with two wins and two runner-up finishes in those six. That includes a win in this race last year with a 111 speed figure. Hard Not to Love ran well and finished third last race off a layoff in a route, and he now cuts back to his preferred distance and is spotted well for trainer John Shirreffs.

Fair Maiden (4/1) won 2-of-3 starts last year and should get a good trip sitting mid-pack off his best speed figure last race. Qahira (4/1), Golden Principal (8/1) and Merneith (5/1) are all trained by Bob Baffert. Golden Principal finished a strong second to Fair Maiden in the Grade 1 La Brea. Qahira stepped up to face better runners in his last two starts and finished runner-up in both. Super Screener adds that Qahira has finished first or second in all six sprint/fast-track starts.