Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday 11/18/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:00 p.m. EST, we have nine races at Churchill Downs. Using Daily Horse Picks projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).
Glamour Girl, Race 3
TVG Racing Odds: 2/1
Race 3 is a big Claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. The favorites are Glamour Girl (2/1) and Funnybets (5/2), but Daily Horse Picks projects Daddymademedoit (7/2) to win, along with My Bets (5/1) and Flower House (5/1) hitting the board.
Daddymademedoit has run all five races on the turf this year. She won here at this distance in September. My Bets is 0-for-4 this year and has been running recent races at a flat mile. Funnybets won last time out at this distance and now faces winners for the first time.
Guaranteed Tip Sheet picks Glamour Girl, who won at this distance from off the pace here in September with an 84 speed figure. She faced better competition last time out when finishing sixth at Keeneland.
Sam and Sy, Race 7
TVG Racing Odds: 5/2
Race 7 is a Starter Allowance for two-year-olds at 7 furlongs. The favorite, Sam and Sy (5/2), is a best bet of Guaranteed Tip Sheet and won his only start by 13 lengths last month. Horse Racing Radar notes that his jockey, Florent Geroux, has won 19-of-64 starts at the meet and has the best win rate (29.7%) of all jockeys during the Churchill Downs meet.
Daily Horse Picks (DHP) gives Sam and Sy the pace advantage, while DHP notes the top speed in the race belongs to Critical Threat (4/1), who won as a huge longshot five weeks ago and has the other leading-jockey, Ricardo Santana, Jr., riding. The runner-up in that race came back to win impressively three days ago as the prohibitive favorite.
Conformist (9/2) draws favorably outside other speed for EPO trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. He won his only start here three weeks ago on the front end.
Singita Dreams, Race 8
TVG Racing Odds: 5/2
The Race 8 feature is an Allowance race at 1-mile for fillies and mares. The race has been moved off the turf to the main track, which allows three outside runners and main contenders to challenge -- Singita Dreams (5/2), Figure It Out (2/1), and Kim K (3/1) with the Churchill meet leading-jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the irons.
Singita Dreams has crossed the wire first in two straight and cuts back in distance after posting back-to-back 97 speed figures. Kim K has not raced since January for trainer Steve Asmussen. She won here last summer with a 101 speed figure and has raced three times in graded stakes races since but failed to hit the board. Figure It Out will try to do just that after failing in her last two starts but winning here in June with a 93 speed figure.
Chad Brown-trained Bacchanalia (2/1) should run better second off a layoff. She’s well-bred and hit high 90’s speed figures earlier this year -- but there is reason for concern with the race moved off the turf.