Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday 10/28/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and TVG gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 1:00 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Churchill Downs. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).
American Humor and Auto Pilot, Race 2
TVG Racing Odds: 7/2 and 5/1
Limited fans are back watching races at the track, and Day 2 of the 24-day fall meet at Churchill Downs could have some rain later in the afternoon, so let’s get some early races in. Race 2 is a Maiden Claiming race with eight runners sprinting 6 furlongs. Not a good group, but let’s add a few horses for the start of the early Pick 3 and Pick 4. Both Sag Harbor (7/2) and American Humor (3/1) are viable win contenders as they try and improve.
Sag Harbor flattened in the stretch in his last race but moved forward in his speed rating. American Humor shortens up in distance and just missed here on debut in June. He’s an off-the-pace runner who also posted an 81 speed figure his second race, and this late-developing three-year-old can move forward.
Auto Pilot (5/1) is spotted well for his Churchill Downs debut racing second off a layoff. TVG notes he posted an 80 speed figure this spring and appears freshened and ready to improve.
All Eyes West and Hoof Prince, Race 3
TVG Racing Odds: 2/1 and 5/2
Race 3 is a Claiming race at 6 furlongs, and the favorite All Eyes West (2/1) is a best-bet at Guaranteed Tip Sheet, despite finishing fourth in his last race when not taking to a new track at Indiana Grand. He ran his best race at this distance when winning on the front end as the favorite at Ellis Park in August.
Seminole Warrior (7/2) moved forward last race in his speed rating (87) when finishing second as a big longshot. Hoof Prince (5/2) will be running up front for EPO trainer Mike Maker. He drops in class and races second off a layoff, having won in August with a 96 speed figure, but he did miss the money against Allowance company last time out.
Stay Happy and Shashashakemeup, Race 6
TVG Racing Odds: 6/1 and 8/5
Race 6 is a higher Claiming race at 6 ½ furlongs, and Guaranteed Tip Sheet has a best-bet projected winner on Stay Happy (6/1). His 2020 debut was less than two weeks ago, and he made up nearly three lengths in the stretch to finish third with a 90 speed figure. Stay Happy ran slow early, and Horse Racing Radar notes that a jockey change to Florent Geroux should have him running closer to the pace with a better chance to win.
Snow Man (8/1) won his 2020 debut in Albuquerque in August, and his work tab in October shows three works looking to run well against better horses. Shashashakemeup (8/5) is the favorite and a well-seasoned colt with top local rider Corey Lanerie. He’s posted five straight speed figures in the 90’s, including 95 when finishing fourth in the Grade II Pat Day Mile here in September.