Santa Anita Park Horse Racing Picks for Monday 10/12/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 5:00 p.m. EST, we have eight races at Santa Anita Park. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Astute and Chevelita, Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/5 and 5/1
Race 4 is a Maiden Special Weight for 2-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the Turf. The favorite Astute (9/5) will take action and should be included in Exacta wagering. She’s a high-priced filly sired by Speightstown. Jockey Mike Smith rides Astute from the outside post, but he’s not the best rider breaking fast. Still, Astute has very solid training times on her work tab the last three weeks for trainer Richard Mandella, which will drive betting interest. FanDuel Racing odds for this race suggests a 36% chance of winning for Astute.
The top pick at numberFire is Evoo (4/1) followed by Astute and Katerini (5/1). Evoo is ridden by leading jockey Umberto Rispoli and also has a solid work tab preparing for her debut which includes a bullet work recently. However, she’s likely to prefer route running, and her sire has yet to produce a winner (0-for-34).
Chevelita (5/1) has a pedigree that has shown early winners and a consistent and solid work tab most recently. Her EPO trainer Peter Miller leads the meet with 9 wins and a meet-best 28% win percentage.
Guaranteed Tip Sheet projects Magical Thought (8/1) and Doritas Happy (8/1) to hit the board and determine the winner. Jockey JJ Hernandez has 15 wins at the current meet which is second behind Flavien Prat (16), and Hernandez rides Magical Thought.
Tilted Towers, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2
Race 6 is an Allowance field of five runners sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. The two inside horses will take the most bets. Tilted Towers (5/2) is trained by the second leading (EPO) trainer Phil D’Amato, and Grit and Curiosity (9/5) is trained by Peter Miller.
Grit and Curiosity is the top pick of Daily Horse Picks and Guaranteed Tip Sheet. She’s 2-for-3 this year and just finished third here 2 1/2 weeks ago, making up ground in the stretch in her stakes debut (Grade 3) while posting a 109 speed figure. Tilted Towers won an Allowance race at 18/1 odds the end of August with a 111 speed figure. He’s an improving and lightly-raced 4-year-old who had a strong unrecorded work in company with a top horse recently.
Any upset would be from Mesut (3/1), who is more experienced with multiple triple-digit speed figures in stakes races and a regular runner at Santa Anita. Mesut is the projected winner in numberFire’s algorithm.
Carpe Victoriam, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/5
Race 7 is a 6-furlong Claiming race and another short field of five runners. Guaranteed Tip Sheet has a best bet on the aptly named Race Home (4/1), which is also the top pick of Daily Horse Picks. However, numberFire is sticking with the favorite, Carpe Victoriam (9/5), to win.
Carpe Victoriam debuts at Santa Anita in his 10th start and is 1-for-5 this year plus a runner-up finish at Churchill Downs with a career best 86 speed figure in June. He’ll set the pace up front while jockey JJ Hernandez tries to get improvement from Race Home cutting back in distance off his poor finish but 84 speed figure 2 1/2 weeks ago at Santa Anita.
Uncaptured Hero (2/1) was sold recently to trainer Richard Baltas, and if he wins, you’ll know the power of EPO and the tricks of the trade with the horse making his second start off a long layoff.
