Lone Star Park Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday 8/11/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 8:07 p.m. EST, we have 10 races at Lone Star Park. Using numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, keep an eye out for scratches and changes.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).
Ima Discreet Lady, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1
Four stakes races begin in Race 7 on the penultimate program at Lone Star Park. Ten state-bred fillies and mares are lined up for the $50K Fiesta Mile on the turf. She’s Our Fastest (9/2) is the top pick at numberFire, followed by the two favorites, Corluna (5/2) and Herbs Love (2/1). All three ran in a minor stakes race on June 22.
She's Our Fastest has finished first or second in 14-of-26 starts but has missed the board in two recent races since the pandemic. Her speed figures were down, but she has won three times in the past year, including last summer in a similar state-bred stakes at Lone Star.
Herbes Love is in better form, finishing first and second in her last two starts since mid-June in minor stakes races. That includes June 22 as the favorite when she came running late but couldn’t catch the winner Cortuna. Note that She’s Our Fastest finished fourth at 2/1 odds from off the pace.
Ima Discreet Lady (5/1) is also in better form and with stronger speed figures, hitting 92 in June when winning the Yellow Rose Stakes here and then runner-up last month as the 2/5 favorite in another state-bred stakes race. She’s hit the board in five of her last six races and looks every bit as good as the others at a better price.
Hulen and Policy Limit, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/1 and 10/1
Race 8 is the $100K Texas Thoroughbred Futurity for juveniles sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. The favorite Island Sun (8/5) is two-for-two after a pace-pressing win three weeks ago as the favorite. Policy Limit (10/1) made up ground in the stretch of that race to finish second and well in front of K C Tiz Moro (30/1).
However, numberFire prefers Bobby Brinkley (9/2) on top ahead of Island Sun. Bobby Brinkley is one-for-two after breaking her maiden three weeks ago with a wire-to-wire 10-length score. His 67 speed figure is a little light and still not up to Island Sun as these two-year-olds improve. Redbirds Interest (50/1) finished fourth in that race and has lots of ground to make up.
Hulen (2/1) is in from Churchill Downs for trainer Steve Asmussen. He won his maiden bow in June and jumped right to graded stakes when finishing fourth in the Bashford Manor (G3). He's been working at Lone Star the past month, and posted a bullet on the work tab. Expect a pace-pressing run and improvement.
Kenai Bob, Race 10
FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/1
Race 10 is the $100K Texas Horse Racing Hall of Fame Stakes for stat-breds racing 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Sunlit Song (9/5) and Redatory (2/1) will take a bulk of the bets as the two prohibitive favorites with numberFire taking Redatory on top. Moojab jr (6/1) and Kenai Bob (8/1) are the contenders by morning line odds.
Sunlit Song has hit the board in six straight starts with three wins, including last out the end of July in a minor stakes race. She caught the pace-setter Radatory in the final strides to win by a neck with both priced below 8/5. Moonjab jr finished third in that race at long odds but still within a half-length of the those two. Kenai Bob was in fourth -- another length back after pressing the pace through three quarters. Right Lane Lukasz (10/1) finished fifth at single-digit odds.
So the race sets up similar with it tough to project the winner with competitive runners, and especially the top two. Finding and betting the winner is the goal, but locating value with competitive runners and letting the chips fall where they may is the long-term way to turn a profit.
Redatory beat Sunlit Song in their two previous races, one by margin and the other by a head each time as the heavy favorite. Redatory may be best, but no value. Single if needed on top of our top pick in Exacta and Trifecta wagering.
Kenai Bob has been breezing beautifully in the mornings the past month at Lone Star, and digging deeper, we see he posted a 102 speed figure in winning the Star of Texas Stakes by 10 lengths in June. He was 2/1 that day, and it was on the dirt. While he was unable to hit the board transferring to the turf against these guys in his last race, we anticipate a better showing, and the price dictates a shot with inclusion in the horizontal and Exacta and Trifecta bets.