Fonner Park Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday 5/12/20
With most of the sports world on pause, it's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 5 p.m. EST today, we have eight races at Fonner Park. Using our projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
(I will be referencing Equibase's Speed Figure, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions)
Race 1 - 5:00 p.m.
My Little Charlie (3/1) is numberFire's projected winner. The four-year-old filly has five career races and has placed third three times, including her only race at Fonner park. Though her speed figure has been underwhelming in two of her last three races, her most recent effort (which took place at Fonner) saw her achieve a figure of 54 -- the only speed figure of 50 or higher managed by any of numberFire's top-three projected finishers at Fonner.
numberFire's projected runner-up is Charming Diva (8/5). The three-year-old filly has two second-place finishes in three races in 2020, both of them coming at Fonner Park. Her recent form has been more consistent than My Little Charlie, as she's had Speed Figures at 25 or higher in four consecutive races -- including two above 40. She's the betting favorite at FanDuel Racing, with an implied probability of 38.5 percent.
Obvi (7/2) is projected to come in third by our models. The five-year-old mare has three top-three finishes in four 2020 races, though none were first. She's had a speed figure above 25 in eight straight efforts, thoough just one of her last seven has been higher than 36.
Pick: Charming Diva (8/5)
Race 2 - 5:27 p.m.
numberFire's algorithm projects Eastside Boy (3/1) to win Race 2. The gelding has had top-three finishes in 7 of her 14 career races on dirt, including one first-place finish last year. His recent form has been solid, as he's posted Speed Figures above 70 in two of his last three outings -- compared to just one such instance in his previous five races. His last two efforts -- both at Fonner -- have seen Figures of 72 and 67.
Banana Pepper (5/2) is the betting favorite and numberFire's projected runner-up. The three-year old colt is coming off a first-place finish here at Fonner Park in April, where he achieved a Speed Figure of 74. It was his third top-three finish in five 2020 races. However, prior to that April race, Banana Pepper had not achieved a Figure above 50 in three consecutive outings.
Best Trick Yet (7/2) is projected to place third by numberFire's models. The seven-year-old gelding has placed inside the top-three in two of his last three races at Fonner Park, though he hasn't had a first-place finish in 36 consecutive efforts. He has achieved a Speed Figure above 60 just once in his last nine races.
Pick: Eastside Boy (3/1)
Race 3 - 5:54 p.m.
Radicator (5/2) is the betting favorite and numberFire's projected first-place finisher in this Maiden Special Weight. This is the gelding's first race at Fonner Park. In his only four career races, he had achieved Speed Figures above 50 three times. He has yet to place inside the top three.
numberFire's projected runner-up is Let It Rip (8/1). The four-year-old has raced twice at Fonner, finishing fifth and sixth, respectively. Each of his three best Speed Figures have occurred in his last four races, though he has never topped 50.
Pick: Radicator (5/2)
Race 4 - 6:21 p.m.
Judge On the Run (5/2) is both the betting favorite and numberFire's projected winner, and for good reason. The mare has raced four times at Fonner Park in 2020, with a first-, second-, and third-place finish included. Four of her last six races have seen her hit Speed Figures higher than 70.
Chamber Doors (9/2) has also had nice form of late -- posting the highest Speed Figures of her career in each of her last two races (both at Fonner). Though the filly has yet to place first in 2020, she does have three career wins in 10 starts, including two at Fonner.
numberFire's projected third-place finisher is Ubetcha Ima Bumper (6/1). The mare has been inconsistent this year, to say the least. In five races at Fonner Park in 2020, the six-year-old has inside the top-two twice (with an average Speed Figure of 69) and outside the top-five in each of the other three (with an average of 35.3)
Pick: Chamber Doors (9/2)
Race 5 - 6:48 p.m.
This is Vagary's (4/1) first start at Fonner Park, yet our models like her to place first. The filly has raced three times in 2020, placing second each time. Her 2019 season included two first- and second-place finishes, out of seven efforts. She has not placed outside the top three in an impressive seven consecutive races. She has also managed a Speed Figure of 60 or higher in 9 of her 11 career races.
Saygoodnightgracie (5/2) is the betting favorite and projected runner-up by numberFire. In three 2020 starts, the filly has placed second, first, and first. Not too shabby. The two former of those three occurred at Fonner. She achieved figures of 60 or higher in each of those three. In total, the three-year-old has four wins in her last 12 efforts.
Pick: Saygoodnightgracie (5/2)
Race 6 - 7:15 p.m.
Where's Rufus (5/2) is the betting favorite and numberFire's projected winner. The gelding hasn't had a first-place finish in 10 outings, but he has placed inside the top-three in two of his three races at Fonner Park. The six-year-old has achieved Speed Figures comfortably above 60 in four straight.
numberFire's algorithm has Smokin B (5/1) finishing second. He has placed second twice in five 2020 races, including one of his two at Fonner. He has had Speed Figures above 60 just twice in those five efforts.
Friend Of Dubai (3/1) is fresh off a first-place finish here at Fonner just over a week ago and is projected to finish third by numberFire. The Speed Figure of 68 that it ran on May 4th was his first over 60 in five races.
Pick: Where's Rufus (5/2)
Race 7 - 7:42 p.m.
Masterpiece Day comes in at 4/1, yet is projected to finish first by numberFire's models. In four starts in 2020 -- all at Fonner Park -- the gelding has had a first- and second-place finish, both occurring in his last two starts. The five-year-old has managed Speed Figures higher than 60 in four of his last five efforts.
Starling (5/2) has raced only once at Fonner Park, managing a runner-up finish. He's projected to finish as the runner-up once again by numberFire. His form of late has also been stellar, posting figures above 65 in three of his last four. In six 2020 starts, the colt has four top-three finishes, including one win.
Ameripoint (6/1) hasn't placed first since late 2018, but his recent form has been noteworthy. He has posted figures above 60 in three of his last four after not reaching that number in three straight races. That said, he has just five top-three finishes in his last 16, none of which were in first. The gelding is projected by numberFire to come in third.
Pick: Starling (5/2)
Race 8 - 8:09 p.m.
The betting favorite and numbeFire's projected winner, Lovethatcause (5/2) has finished first, first, third, second, and second in his five 2020 races, all at Fonner. He's achieved Speed Figures above 80 in each of his last four, including 95 and 100 in his last two.
Top Of The Page (8/1) has also placed first twice in 2020, though neither of those occurred at Fonner. The gelding has had scores of 80 or higher in three of his last five, but those have topped out at 84. He's projected to post a second-place finish by numberFire's algorithm.
Knight Disruptor (5/1) has raced three times in 2020, all at Fonner Park. Those three include a second-, seventh-, and first-place finish, in that order. He achieved a Speed Figure of 89 in his most recent race in April. Our model has him finishing third.
Pick: Lovethatcause (5/2)