PGA Betting Guide for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
We get a new wrinkle this week, as we are dealing with match play instead of stroke play. We'll still rely on similar metrics when filling out our betting card, but aside from picking the winners we have a chance to pad our bankroll with group play. The favorite in any given pod is hardly a lock to advance to the bracket, and the last time this event was held in 2019 only five of the top-seeded golfers advanced. Only two of the bottom seeds made it to the round of 16, so we don't need to get crazy with big dogs either.
We'll look for value in a few pods and then get to some good bets for overall tournament. Any big long shot would have to go toe to toe with a lot of the best players in the world and come out clean on the other end. That seems unlikely, combined with the fact that World Golf Championships generally bring out the best of the best, so our outright card will be more focused on value at the top of the market and the tier just below.
For more info on Austin Country Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
Group Stage Bets
J.T. Poston (+550 to win Group 4) - We can take some guidance from the 2019 final, in which Kevin Kisner defeated Matt Kuchar. After a few years of big bombers taking the crown, more modest but still top 30 players duked it out. Both Kisner and Kuchar have their moments with approach play but are more well known for their short games. Ditto for 2016 winner Jason Day. That short-game prowess points us toward Poston, who was T8 at the RBC Heritage last year and T22 at THE PLAYERS a couple weeks ago, both Pete Dye-designed courses. With Group 4 favorite Collin Morikawa making his Match Play debut, there's room for an upset in this pod, and Poston looks like a good play at 11/2.
Bryson DeChambeau (+105 to win Group 5) - The Dye designs don't typically bend to the bomb-and-gouge types, but DeChambeau has shown over the past year that his spot at the forefront of the distance arms race does not necessarily mean he's become one dimensional. DeChambeau can bomb it anywhere, but when he contends, it's just as often because of his short game as it is his play off the tee. He was T3 at Sawgrass and has three top 10s at Harbour Town, and while two of those came when he was shaped like an entirely different human, he fired rounds of 67, 64, 70, and 66 on his way to T8 at last year's Heritage.
Patrick Reed (+130 to win Group 7) - Since the event moved to Austin CC, Reed has a 7-3-2 record that includes clean sweeps in group play in both 2016 and 2018. His group is composed of two golfers making their debut at this event and former champ Bubba Watson (+470), who has just one finish inside the top 50 in his past six events. Captain America, meanwhile, has a win already this year and has just two finishes outside the top 25 in nine events so far in the 2020-21 season.
Sergio Garcia (+200 to win Group 8) - Garcia will pass Tiger Woods for most Match Play matches during the group play, and if he continues to strike the ball the way he has over the past few months, he'll be tough to keep out of the bracket. Sergio's problem these days is a dreadful putter, and a costly three-putt from 15 feet will cost him only one hole this week as opposed to the massive impact it has in stroke play events. With Garcia's weakness capped at how much it can cost him, the rest of his game should shine through.
Tony Finau (+150 to win Group 12) - Finau's main competition here is young star Will Zalatoris (+250), but we are drawn to Finau's recent form. Of the favorites in each group, only Jordan Spieth (+175 to win Group 15) comes in at longer odds than Finau. We'll grab that value for some early week magic by Tony without a second thought. He has valuable Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup experience that no one else in his pod can claim.
Outright Bets to Win
Rory McIlroy (+1900) - McIlroy has plenty of match-play experience and won this event in 2015 at TPC Harding Park. Rory's winless stretch now reaches 16 months, and we get a chance to buy in cheap this week as he is priced a tier below the top guys. This time last year, McIlroy was the unquestioned top player, and since then, he's factored into only a few Sundays. He's made comments since the return to play after the pandemic layoff about his failure to adapt to tournaments without fans, and after missing the cut at THE PLAYERS, he admitted to some issues as a result of pushing himself for more club head speed/distance to try to keep up with DeChambeau. A shakeup in format may be just what McIlroy needs, and we like him to contend this week if he makes it out of his group.
Patrick Reed (+2900) - Reed lives for the mano-a-mano nature of match play, and despite two undefeated group stages, he's lost in the Round of 16 both times. He's in form and would relish the opportunity to beat the best of the best head to head.
Hideki Matsuyama (+4300) - Matsuyama has confounded and frustrated us so many times in the past, and we may soon come to grips with the fact that he is simply not reliable enough over 72 holes to beat 150 other golfers. Our luck this week is that he won't have to do that, and his blowups will cost just a single hole as long as he keeps his head. We know he can be among the best ball-strikers and one of the best around-the-green players. He is showing signs of that elite iron play returning, having gained at least 2.0 strokes via approaches in three straight events.
Ryan Palmer (+8000) - Palmer will be our lone long shot this week as a corollary to one of the favorites. Jon Rahm (+1200) is at the top of the board and rightfully so, but if Austin Country Club fits him, then it certainly fits Palmer, as well. In each of Palmer's last five top 10s, Rahm has joined him near the top of the leaderboard. The two also won the team event together in New Orleans, and the two start in the same group this week. If Palmer gets the best of Rahm in the group stage, he will be extremely dangerous once we get to the bracket. He has solid finishes at the Dye-designed Harbour Town, including a T8 last year. Palmer has also put up many of his best performances in Texas, with multiple top 10s at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Valero Texas Open, and Byron Nelson over his career.
