Gdula's Golf Simulations: Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship

Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.

We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.

The Process

Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).

The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.

In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.

I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.

I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.

Here are the most likely winners for the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, according to the models.

Golfer Simulated
Made Cut%
Win Odds
Charley Hoffman5.9%35.0%84.2%+1800
Taylor Pendrith4.0%24.9%77.1%+4000
Charles Howell III3.7%26.3%80.0%+4800
Emiliano Grillo3.1%22.3%76.8%+1800
Thomas Detry2.8%19.8%74.5%+2600
Thomas Pieters2.8%18.4%72.9%+1800
Sepp Straka2.7%23.6%78.5%+4000
Luke List2.5%20.4%76.0%+3100
Jhonattan Vegas2.5%19.6%75.0%+2600
Lee Hodges2.4%16.1%65.2%+3200
Roger Sloan2.3%19.8%74.5%+4500
William Gordon2.0%18.3%73.3%+4500
Pat Perez1.8%18.3%73.4%+7000
Brandon Wu1.8%12.8%57.9%+2600
Tom Lewis1.7%15.7%70.9%+4500
Patrick Rodgers1.7%17.0%72.7%+3400
Joel Dahmen1.7%17.1%72.3%+4800
Stephan Jaeger1.7%14.7%68.3%+4800
Kristoffer Ventura1.6%16.9%72.0%+7000
Brandon Hagy1.6%15.2%69.9%+2900
Lucas Herbert1.5%12.1%62.3%+5500
Justin Suh1.5%15.3%70.2%+3100
Brice Garnett1.4%14.7%70.0%+4000
Tyler Duncan1.4%15.6%69.8%+10000
Danny Willett1.4%13.0%67.8%+3400
Chase Seiffert1.3%13.5%68.4%+4800
Chesson Hadley1.3%13.5%69.1%+10000
Greyson Sigg1.3%9.6%55.0%+4800
Sam Ryder1.3%12.6%67.6%+3400
Adam Schenk1.2%14.0%68.7%+4800
Troy Merritt1.1%12.3%66.5%+10000
Fabrizio Zanotti1.0%12.2%66.4%+6000
Peter Uihlein1.0%8.0%50.1%+5500
Nate Lashley1.0%10.3%65.0%+3400
Camilo Villegas1.0%11.2%63.4%+4800
Brian Stuard0.9%11.5%65.3%+10000
Hank Lebioda0.9%11.7%66.2%+10000
Bronson Burgoon0.8%9.2%62.2%+4800
Padraig Harrington0.8%6.5%50.7%+5000
Joseph Bramlett0.8%8.8%62.2%+8000
Vincent Whaley0.7%9.2%62.9%+10000
Ryan Brehm0.7%6.6%52.0%+10000
Rafa Cabrera Bello0.7%8.1%60.6%+4800
Zhang Xinjun0.6%8.3%59.9%+6000
Aaron Baddeley0.6%7.0%58.2%+5000
Ben Martin0.6%6.0%50.5%+10000
Vaughn Taylor0.6%7.6%59.1%+8000
Tyler McCumber0.5%6.7%58.5%+5500
Bill Haas0.5%8.7%61.4%+13000
Rob Oppenheim0.5%8.3%59.5%+6500
Josh Teater0.5%5.5%50.2%+10000
Paul Barjon0.5%6.5%55.2%+15000
Robby Shelton IV0.5%8.1%60.3%+10000
Alex Smalley0.5%5.5%53.9%+10000
J.B. Holmes0.5%5.2%47.8%+5500
Tim Wilkinson0.5%7.2%56.8%+7000
Beau Hossler0.5%6.2%56.1%+10000
Satoshi Kodaira0.5%6.8%57.1%+10000

If you were underwhelmed with last week's field, well, buckle up.

Charley Hoffman does deserve to be a co-favorite at +1800, per the simulations, and there's actually value on him at this number. He's pretty easily the best long-term player in the field when adjusted for field strength.

Charles Howell shortened from +4800 to +2800, and it's deserved. My data rates him as the second-best golfer in the field long-term, and there's still value on him at +2800

The model is showing heavier value in mid-range play Taylor Pendrith (+4000), who is the best statistical fit for Corales, per datagolf,

Some other golfers who outperformed their posted odds on FanDuel Sportsbook include Sepp Straka (+4000), Roger Sloan (+4500), Pat Perez (+7000), Kristoffer Ventura (+7000), Tyler Duncan (+10000), and Chesson Hadley (+10000).

I already bet Pendrith for an outright and will update this closer to Thursday with my other bets.