DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: The American Express
Daily fantasy golf requires a new approach for each and every event.
The course and field change week after week, making no two contests alike. That means you need to refine your approach for each PGA Tour event to try to find golfers who are primed to excel for your daily fantasy golf lineups.
Each week, we have a course primer, and our daily fantasy golf projections and lineup builder can help you get started, but these golfers stand out specifically on DraftKings for the American Express.
|Key Stats for The American Express|
|Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green|
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Birdies or Better Gained|
|Strokes Gained: Par 5s|
Let's get to the picks. For details on why these stats stand out this week, check out the course primer.
Stats are from Fantasy National Golf Club and are for golfers in the field over the last 50 rounds.
Brooks Koepka (DraftKings Price: $10,800 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +1700) - With favorite Jon Rahm dropping out, Koepka slots in as our highest priced pick instead of Patrick Cantlay ($11,100 | +1400), who will garner plenty of ownership and hopefully throw DFS-ers off of Koepka at this price. After complaining for years that he did not get as much publicity as some of the other stars on Tour, Koepka is now one of the most analyzed golfers on the planet and his performance when not "motivated" is basically common knowledge at this point. Having dropped all the way to 12th in the world with more hot young players right behind him, Koepka can no longer afford to flip his switch only at majors and WGC events. A strong early season showing would put the rest of the Tour on notice that Brooks is ready to get back to the top in 2021.
Tony Finau ($10,500 | +2100) - Finau is always a stats darling, as he ranks 1st on par 5s, 8th in both strokes gained: tee-to-green and birdies or better gained, and 25th in strokes gained: approach. He was 14th here last year, his best finish in three tries, which included a blistering 62 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course on Friday. He's been solid so far in the young season, closing 2020 with finishes of T8, T11, T24, T38, and T8 before a T31 to kick of 2021 at the short field Tournament of Champions. He closed the year in far worse form last year and found his way at this event to kickstart a really strong season.
Matthew Wolff ($9,700 | +1900) - Wolff cooled off to close 2020, finishing the year with near dead last at THE CJ CUP, a T50 at the ZOZO Championship, and a missed cut at The Masters. We can forgive him a lapse after back to back runner ups at the U.S. Open and Shriners Hospitals for Children Open before that, not to mention the fact that he'd just finished his first full season as a professional golfer at just 21 years in the midst of a global pandemic. Wolff lost 12.5 strokes tee-to-green at Shadow Creek and another 3.6 at Sherwood but had lost tee to green in just one event in the 10 events preceding those two. Over his last 50, he ranks 3rd in birdies or better gained, 4th in strokes gained: approach, 10th tee to green, and 19th on par 5s.
Rickie Fowler ($9,300 | +3700) - He won't make for a convincing statistical play this week, but Fowler's ownership will be worth monitoring this week. With two young studs below him and the guy at the top of everybody's model covered just below, Fowler is the perfect leverage play at this price. Coming off the Presidents Cup last year he finished T5 at Kapalua and then T10 here...and then failed to crack the top 10 in any event for the rest of the season. We want to catch the talented golfers at the absolute bottom of their price and ownership curves, and here we are with Rickie. After the past 23 months, Fowler can arrive at very few courses with much confidence, but off his strong finish here and his excellent history at the correlated TPC Scottsdale, this may be the spot.
Russell Henley ($9,000 | +2500) - Henley put up yet another strong performance at Waialae, finishing T11 after gaining in all four strokes gained metrics. He missed the cut at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, but those rounds were unmeasured and won't affect his sterling stats, where he ranks first in strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: approach. He has gained strokes with his irons all but one event since missing the cut here a year ago. His form at that time can be thrown completely out, as he was in the midst of a stretch of five straight missed cuts. Since breaking out of that slump with a T17 at the Genesis Invitational last February, Henley has missed just three cuts and has six top 10s in 16 events.
Sam Burns ($8,300 | +4900) - It's been over two months since we last saw Burns posting a T7 in Houston in one of his best tee-to-green performances of his career. He gained 11.1 strokes that week including 6.5 just with his approach game. The layoff dulls that shine a bit, but Burns is at his best on Bermuda greens and in two appearances at the American Express has posted results of T18 and T6.
Erik Van Rooyen ($7,900 | +8000) - EVR missed the cut at the Sony Open last week, but the good news is he has bounced back from each of his last four missed cuts with a top 25 finish in the following event. Aside from a withdrawal at Augusta, van Rooyen had been playing well in the fall on both the PGA and European Tours, with finishes of T23 at the U.S. Open, T6 at the Scottish Open, T27 at the BMW PGA Championship, T20 at the Houston Open, and T14 at the DP World Tour Championships. Those Euro events don't even factor into his solid stats, where he is 4th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 12th in strokes gained: approach, 15th in birdies or better gained, and 26th on par 5s.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,800 | +7000) - That Grillo finished T47 at the Sony Open with rounds of 66, 70, 67, and 67 speaks to how well the field played last week. He was on our radar then and pops up once again here for the same reasons. He is 5th in strokes gained: approach and 12th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He's just 42nd in birdies or better gained but he is 1st in opportunities gained, defined as birdie chances on the green or fringe within 15 feet. Grillo is a poor putter, but the tee to green game is consistent enough that we can ride his floor and stay live for an outlier putter week to carry him into the top 10.
Cameron Davis ($7,700 | +8000) - Davis drove the ball great last week, leading the field with 6.3 strokes gained off the tee. That advantage was muted with just two par 5s to go after, but back on a full par 72 with great birdie opportunities on every par 5 he should be able to take advantage. He ranks1st in birdies or better gained, 7th in total strokes gained on par 5s, and 20th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He was T29 here last year and T28 the year before.
Doc Redman ($7,500 | +8500) - Redman makes his 2021 debut hoping to get off to a good start after a disastrous putting performance his last time out at the RSM Classic. Redman posted his worst putting round ever by strokes gained data, losing 4.3 strokes in just his second round at the Seaside Course. The ballstriking should stay strong, and he is surely due for some positive regression with the flat stick. He is 7th in strokes gained: approach and ranked 11th on the entire Tour last year. He was also T29 at last year's edition in his first time at this event.
Cameron Tringale ($7,400 | +11000) - Tringale was last seen firing a 62 to just barely miss the playoff at the RSM Classic. The T3 finish tied for the best finish he's had in the last 5 years (he was also T3 at the 3M Open this past July. He ranks 14th in birdies or better gained, 17th in strokes gained: approach, 20th on par 5s, and 35 in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
John Augenstein ($6,500 | +24000) - The Vanderbilt product turned pro after finishing T55 at The Masters. He was the reigning SEC Player of the Year and could be the latest in the recent wave of college golfers transitioning to the pro game with relative ease. He impressed early with rounds of 69 and 72 but faded over the weekend with back-to-back 75s. He'll encounter quite a bit less resistance this week, and coming from the birdiefests on the college circuit he'll be right at home chasing low numbers this week.
Will Gordon ($6,400 | +24000) - Gordon is one of the biggest hitters on Tour and has been a prolific birdiemaker. He is 2nd only to Davis in birdies or beter gained, and he ranks 18th in strokes gained on par 5s. He flashed upside with a T3 at the Travelers Championship last June to warrant consideration, and at about 1-2 percent owned he's potentially a huge source of leverage in our DraftKings lineups. The last two winners were triple-digit odds, and at this event in particular a dart throw is totally viable when they have an elite skill like Gordon's driving.
Mike Rodden is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Mike Rodden also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mike_rodden. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.