DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: 3M Open
Daily fantasy golf requires a new approach for each and every event.
The course and field change week after week, making no two contests alike. That means you need to refine your approach for each PGA Tour event to try to find golfers who are primed to excel for your daily fantasy golf lineups.
|Key Stats for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities|
|Strokes Gained: Tee to Green|
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Birdies or Better Gained|
|Strokes Gained: Par 5s|
Let's get to the picks. For details on why these stats stand out this week, check out the course primer.
Stats are from Fantasy National Golf Club and are for golfers in the field over the last 50 rounds.
Tony Finau (DraftKings Price: $10,900 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +1400) - Finau was in the hunt last week before a disastrous stretch dropped him too far back to realistically overcome Jon Rahm's huge lead. The six-over Sunday can hardly be held against him when seemingly half the field matched that score or worse in the grueling conditions at Muirfield Village GC. Finau will find much friendlier conditions this week, and with his issues last week mostly coming around the green he'll be thrilled to see larger targets this week. The average green size at TPC Twin Cities is 6,500 square feet, compared to just 5,000 at Muirfield Village. He is first in strokes gained: tee-to-green and fifth in both birdies or better gained and strokes gained: approach.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500 | +1600) - Fleetwood makes his debut post-COVID layoff this week, warming up for the WGC event and the year's first major. Form could be an issue, but Tommy has been one of the most reliable cut-makers in the world for the past few years, though of course, he missed the weekend at Bay Hill, his last pre-shutdown event. Given the back to back dudes by Dustin Johnson ($11,500 | +1100) and comments from Brooks Koepka ($11,200 | +1200) about his knee last week, Fleetwood may just be the man to beat this week.
Paul Casey ($10,100 | +2500) - Casey missed the cut at the Memorial thanks to a quadruple bogey on Friday. Given the scoring over the weekend, it seems Casey was early to the party. He should bounce back this week, having last missed consecutive cuts over four years ago. He is 1st in strokes gained: approach, 2nd in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 3rd on par 5s, and 10th in birdies or better gained.
Lucas Glover ($9,400 | +3500) - Glover is hardly the man we'd expect to see at this price, until we stare further down the list and realize it really doesn't get much better. He's played quite a bit since the restart, with four straight top 25s before a T38 last week at the Memorial. He'd had just one such finish in a full field since last year's Open Championship, so it's nice to see him get back into form. In this field, he is a cut above, solid across the board but particularly in the narrower sample of just the past couple months post-COVID layoff. Over the full 50-round sample, he ranks 12th in birdies or better gained, 18th in approach, 23rd tee-to-green, and 28th on par 5s. In this field, over just the past two months he ranks 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and 21st in those stats.
Harris English ($9,000 | +3300) - The likely chalk here along with Glover and Russell Henley ($9,200 | +3300), English is was coming into form leading up to the PLAYERS, and an early exit in the first event back was quickly forgotten with top 20s at the RBC Heritage and the Memorial. The MC at Colonial was his only finish outside the top 20 since January, and he ranks 6th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 16th in approach, 34th on par 5s, and 36th in birdies or better gained. He shined in the Fall Swing, where birdie-fests in weak fields were the norm.
Erik Van Rooyen ($8,800 | +4000) - A pretty fair price considering he was $8k two weeks ago, Van Rooyen has alternated missed cuts with top 25s in his four events post-layoff. He is third in birdies or better gained, fifth in strokes gained on par 5s and strokes gained: tee-to-green, and eighth in approach. It's hard to fight the nagging feeling that he'll finish better at the WGC event next week than he will slumming it in Minnesota, but such is life with EVR. When the game is there he plays beautifully, and statistically, he has one of the best cases in the field.
Doc Redman ($8,700 | +4100) - Perhaps the best pure ball-striker in this price range, Redman missed the cut here last year but has played well at the other newbie in Detroit, finishing 2nd and 21st the past two years. He had the worst tournament of his career here last year, losing 3.0 strokes with his approaches. Iron play should be his strong suit, and a bounce back is in order after putting horridly last week at Muirfield.
Sepp Straka ($7,900 | +5000) - Straka really shines when we look only to the stats since the restart, ranking 1st in strokes gained on par 5s and 19th in birdies or better gained. He is typically good for just a hot round or two but he at least has the credibility of top 10 upside like his T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He followed that up with a T14 in easier conditions and a T61 in crazy tough conditions at the Muirfield double. This week's set up will be much more like the former than the latter.
Carlos Ortiz ($7,700 | +7000) - Ortiz has some good long term form, with three top-5 finishes in the swing season. He was also fifth here last year, and while we can't make much of one event for course history we can at least see that Ortiz plays well at easier courses and weaker fields. He can putt with some consistency, and while his stat rankings are attractive -- he is 13th on par 5s, 16th in birdies or better gained, 25th tee-to-green, and 27th in approach -- where he really stands out is in fantasy scoring. In this field over the past 50 rounds, he ranks 4th in DraftKings points gained on the field.
Richy Werenski ($7,400 | +9500) - Werensky is a much shorter sample play, having made the cut in all four post-layoff starts and played well despite some predictable inconsistencies. He has alternated the four events gaining strokes with his approaches and losing on the greens, and vice versa. Last time out at the Workday Charity Open he gained 6.3 strokes via approaches and lost 2.7 putting. At the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he lost 0.6 on approach and gained 2.3 putting. At the Travelers Championship, he gained 3.3 on approach and lost 2.2 putting. And at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he lost 4.4 on approach and gained 7.4 putting. All of which is to say he is on the cusp of putting it all together, and this field in this spot could line up perfectly.
Aaron Wise ($7,100 | +12000) - A low owned pivot off the potentially chalky Bernd Wiesberger ($7,200 | +8500, the 29th ranked player in the world), Wise should come in below 3% this week on DraftKings and provide a ton of leverage. The 2018 Rookie of the Year is hardly the profile we look for in DFS. He does not have a ton of cut equity, having missed the cut in 9 of his last 12 events. He has just two top-40 finishes in the past year. But he made the cut in all four majors in 2019, something few in this range could dream to accomplish. He is a pure talent play this week at low ownership.
Chesson Hadley ($6,900 | +12000) - Hadley is a bit of an anomaly, as he ranks first in birdies or better gained, fifth on par 5s and in DraftKings scoring, and seventh in strokes gained: approach. But he has just four top 25s to show for it over the past year, and nothing even resembling real contention. He could spike any week, and at this price, we can trust the data and pull the trigger on Hadley with conviction.
Danny Lee ($6,700 | +10000) - Lee is always a great tournament play at a low price and low ownership, and he is one of those golfers with real upside that can pop up seemingly out of nowhere. He has three top 10s and five missed cuts this season. You will need to live in the $6k's if you want to focus on the top of the billing, and Lee is credible enough to show up on the leaderboard come Sunday.
Mike Rodden is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Mike Rodden also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mike_rodden. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.