Daily Fantasy Golf: Tournament Targets and Avoids for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week, but the volatility -- top-tier golfers can miss the cut, and longshots can win outright -- makes it a unique daily fantasy sport.
Ownership won't always matter, and favorites will win and thrive some weeks, but when the chalk struggles and the pivots hit big, you can put yourself in a great position to succeed when playing large tournaments on FanDuel.
Whether you're brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered -- and we have daily fantasy golf projections and lineup building tools, too.
Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week in GPP tournaments on FanDuel.
|Key Stats for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind|
|Greens in Regulation|
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Good Drives Gained|
|Par 4 Scoring|
Despite being a WGC event, the PGA Tour returns to TPC Southwind, the former host of the St. Jude Classic. Despite the new name, course history (despite technically a different event) is still relevant as this course is a common stop on tour, and last year Dustin Johnson destroyed the field, shooting 19 under par and beating Andrew Putnam by six strokes. It is important to note that there is no cut this week, so golfers will be guaranteed four rounds which will likely cause big swings throughout the weekend.
While the course is susceptible to bombers, as Johnson showed last year, most of the other top-10 finishers are not considered bombers, while Daniel Berger won the event the prior two years. There are 11 par 4s between 400-500 yards which brings par 4 scoring into play as a key stat, and, as it is most weeks, strokes gained: approach will play an important role in determining the winner. Good drives gained and greens in regulation look as though they will also be important this week while the winner will likely come in just over 10 under par, which makes opportunities gained the final key metric of the week.
Stats cited below come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour unless noted. Ranks are among the field.
High-Priced Tier ($12,000 - $10,000)
Target: Henrik Stenson (FanDuel Salary $10,600) - Stenson, who has made the cut in 10 straight tournaments, cracking the top-20 in four straight (including the Scottish Open), is projected at sub 12% ownership, per FantasyNational. Stenson finished inside the top-30 in his previous two appearances playing the St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind, including a 26th place finish last year. Over the last 12 rounds, Stenson sits inside the top-40 in all five key stats, and he comes inside the top-15 in four of the five stats. When expanding out to the last 50 rounds, Stenson falls inside the top-30 in all five key stats while coming inside the top-10 in good drives gained, strokes gained: approach and greens in regulation. Projected as one of the lowest owned golfers in this tier, Stenson should be a target as he is in good form and his stats back up his performance.
Avoid: Jason Day ($10,200) - Projected at just over 16%, Day has not cracked the top-65 in back-to-back tournaments while missing the cut in two of his last five appearances, including last week's Open Championship at Royal Portrush. Over the last 50 rounds, Day sits in the top-25 in just two of the key stats but does come in inside the top-45 in all five key stats. When narrowing in on the last 12 rounds, Day falls inside the top-35 in all five key stats, including sitting first in greens in regulation, but his recent form does match his stats, and DFS players should be wary of Day as one of the top-owned golfers in this tier.
Mid-Priced Tier ($9,900 - $9,000)
Target: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,700) - Currently projected as the lowest owned golfer in this tier, at sub-five percent, Fitzpatrick has made the cut in 11 straight tournaments, and he has cracked the top-20 in three straight appearances (including the Scottish Open). Over the last 12 rounds, Fitzpatrick comes inside the top-35 in four of the five key stats -- but doesn't crack the top-25 in any -- and sits 46th in Par 4 scoring. When expanding to the last 50 rounds, Fitzpatrick moves up to 11th in good drives while still cracking the top-46 in all five key stats. With his recent form, and at his ownership projection, Fitzpatrick seems like an obvious leverage play in this tier.
Avoid: Billy Horschel ($9,000) - Projected as the top-owned golfer in this tier, Horschel, a course history stud, has made the cut in every appearance at the St. Jude Classic since 2012, including four straight top-10 finishes from 2013 to 2017. Before missing the cut at the Open Championship, Horschel was playing good golf as he finished inside the top-35 in five straight appearances, including a ninth-place finish at the Memorial. Over the last 50 rounds, Horschel sits 20th or worse in all five key stats while his lowest rank over that span is 55th in opportunities gained. When narrowing in on the last 12 rounds, Horschel's stats -- as his performance suggests -- greatly improve as he comes inside the top-20 in three of the key stats while ranking inside the top-40 in all five. As he has proven, Horschel can play extremely well at this course, but his ownership brings rostering him into a gray area and coming in well under the field may be the correct play.
Low-Priced Tier ($8,900 and below)
Target: Keegan Bradley ($8,300) - Projected around eight percent ownership, Bradley has finished inside the top-20 in three straight WGC events. Over the previous 50 rounds, Bradley ranks inside the top-40 in all five key stats while sitting inside the top-12 in good drives, strokes gained: approach and greens in regulation. When narrowing in on the last 12 rounds, Bradley's stats drop off as he is outside of the top-20 in all five key stats. Bradley is a good ball striker and his long-term form suggests he could compete, if his putter cooperates -- which is always the question with Bradley.
Avoid: Max Homa ($7,300) - Currently projected at just under 10% ownership, Homa has not finished inside the top-25 since his win at Wells Fargo, and that win is his only top-15 finish over his last 12 tournaments, while missing two cuts over that span. Over the last 12 rounds, Homa sits 35th or worse in four of the five key stats while sitting 11th in opportunities gained. When looking at the last 50 rounds, Homa ranks inside the top-50 in all five key stats, but only cracks the top-20 in opportunities gained. Despite a guaranteed four rounds, Homa's ownership is concerning, especially for a golfer in this tier.
Ben Fisher is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ben Fisher also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Gvsubrickwall. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.