DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: Valspar Championship
Daily fantasy golf requires a new approach for each and every event.
The course and field change week after week, making no two contests alike. That means you need to refine your approach for each PGA Tour event to try to find golfers who are primed to excel for your daily fantasy golf lineups.
Each week, we have a course primer, and our daily fantasy golf projections and lineup builder can help you get started, but these golfers stand out specifically on DraftKings for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort.
|Key Stats for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort|
|Strokes Gained: Approach|
|Strokes Gained: Par 5s (emphasis in the 550-600 yards range)|
|Proximity Gained 175+|
For details on why these stats stand out this week, check out the primer.
Let's get to the picks.
All stats are from Fantasy National Golf Club and are for golfers in the field over the last 50 rounds, unless otherwise noted.
Dustin Johnson (DraftKings Price $11,500 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: 5/1) - Johnson is at the top of the board once again this week, bringing his typically stellar statistical profile to Innisbrook Resort. DJ is first in strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: approach, and bogeys avoided. He's a measly second in opportunities gained. He is 10th on par 5s and just 45th on those that measure between 550 and 600 yards, but he is first on both par 3s and on par 4s between 450 and 500 yards, of which there are five each this week (two of the par 4s are 445 yards, but it's close enough to round up; DJ is 1st in par 4s overall so he's fine either way). You can just never go wrong with Johnson, who is coming off a fifth at THE PLAYERS and top 10s in five of his last six events.
Jon Rahm ($11,000 | 19/2) - Rahm is the second favorite this week, and after squandering a 56 hold lead at TPC Sawgrass and tumbling down to a T12 finish he'll look to bounce back. He had one of his worst rounds in his career on the PGA Tour on Sunday, losing 3.4 strokes tee to green. He is third in this field in that stat over his last 50 rounds, so the one round blip is worth writing off. Rahm is 12th in opportunities gained, 13th in bogeys avoided, and 14th in proximity from 175 yards or further. Last week was just his second finish outside the top 10 in seven events in 2019.
Gary Woodland ($9,900 | 29/1) - Woodland is priced way back up this week after he answered a brief stint in the lower tier with a steady T30 at THE PLAYERS. He rode a strong swing season into January, racking up seven top 10s over a nine-event span. He is 1st in strokes gained: par 5s and 21st in the 550-600 yard range. Woodland ranks second in strokes gained: tee to green, sixth in strokes gained: approach, and ninth in both proximity gained (175+) and opportunities gained. With a huge price bump shooting him into the same tier or above golfers who were priced significantly higher than him last week, Woody could be a great leverage play this week.
Keegan Bradley ($9,400 | 46) - Consistently one of the best iron players on Tour, Keegan naturally pops in the key stats this week. He is 2nd in strokes gained: approach, 6th in proximity gained from 175+ yards, 23rd in bogeys avoided, and 33rd in opportunities gained. He does not rate out well on par 5s (102nd in the field), but in the 550-600 range he is more than passable at 14th. Also like Woodland, he is on a tremendous made cut streak and has popped with a few top 10s over the past few months, and he has received a $2k price bump on DraftKings compared to last week.
Henrik Stenson ($9,100 | 46) - Where Keegan pops, so too does Henrik. The Swede rates out even better, ranking 1st in proximity gained from 175+, 3rd in approach, 6th in bogeys avoided, and 18th in opportunities gained. He also handles par 5s generally better, as he ranks 13th in the field in strokes gained: par 5s. He missed the cut here last year but had finished 7th, 11th, and 4th in the three years prior.
Jason Kokrak ($8,600 | 50) - Kokrak has played the weekend in 16 straight events and rates out quite well this week. He is third in proximity gained from 175+, fourth in strokes gained: tee to green, fifth in strokes gained: approach, seventh in opportunities gained, and eighth in bogeys avoided. He has two top 10s in his last four events and has lost strokes putting in each of those. He's gained strokes on approach in all but 3 of those 16 rounds.
Russell Knox ($8,100 | 70) - Knox is 12th in bogeys avoided and 14th in strokes gained: approach. Proximity to the hole is a particular strength, as he is 7th in overall proximity gained and 19th from 175+ yards. Par 5s are the downside of the Scot's game (83rd on par 5s, 115th 550-600 yards), but he is 13th on par 4s between 450-500 yards and 29th on par 3s. He'll be able to make up the strokes elsewhere, and it's not as if everyone else is going to be gouging the par 5s; only 39 eagles have been carded at Copperhead in the last two years combined.
Sungjae Im ($7,700 | 70) - The PGA Tour rookie is in the field once again this week, and after missing the cut at THE PLAYERS Im should be well rested for the Valspar. He rates out very well for his price, ranking top 25 in each of the key stats with a high of 6th in strokes gained: tee to green. A poor putting performance cost him the weekend at TPC Sawgrass, but the ballstriking and scoring have generally been there, and he has shown he can climb the leaderboard if he gets the putter going.
Zach Johnson ($7,600 | 90) - Johnson has not flashed the upside you'd like to see, but he is still a steady cash game play week in and week out. He as not missed back to back cuts in almost two years, and he is coming off one of the worst performances of his career. He lost 6.9 strokes at THE PLAYERS, his most since 2013 for a single event. Johnson's proximity stats really stand out this week, as he is 17th in total proximity gained and 10th from 175+ yards. He is also 21st in strokes gained: tee to green, 25th on approach, and 38th in bogeys avoided.
Sung Kang ($7,200 | 120) - Kang has been solid for most of 2019, with just one missed cut and four top 25s in eight events. His only missed cut came at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, where he lost seven strokes putting in two rounds. He is a beast on par 5s, especially in the key range of 550-600 yards: Kang is ninth in strokes gained: par 5s and sixth from 550-600. He is 22nd in opportunities gained, 24th in bogeys avoided, 29th in proximity gained (175+ yards), and 32nd in strokes gained: approach.
Nick Watney ($7,200 | 190) - Watney is another par 5 stud, as he is 5th overall and 35th on par 5s between 550-600 yards. He is 21st in bogeys avoided and 23rd in opportunities gained. He's made the cut in all three of his trips to Copperhead, including a T14 here back in 2017.
Roberto Castro ($7,100 | 240) - Castro has three straight missed cuts at the Valspar, but he is in better lead-in form than he has been in years past and has seemed on the cusp of a breakthrough at times. He finished 20th at the Honda Classic his last time out, gaining strokes on approach in all four rounds. Over his last 50, he ranks 12th in this field on approach. He is also 20th in opportunities gained, 22nd on par 5s (550-600 yards), and 28th in bogeys avoided.
Adam Svensson ($6,600 | 250) - Svensson is an up and down player, but he doesn't mind the wind and hits his irons well. He is 11th in proximity gained from 175+ yards, 16th in strokes gained: tee to green, and 19th in both strokes gained: approach and opportunities gained. Fellow Canadians Graham DeLaet and Adam Hadwin (bonus points for fellow Canadian Adam!) have great history here, and at this price that trend is worth a touch of Svensson.
Sam Saunders ($6,300 | 250) - With such separation at the top with golfers like Johnson and Rahm, dipping down lower than normal may be necessary to fit two or three studs in your lineups this week. Enter Saunders, who has made the cut three of the past four years here, including two top 25s. He is 17th in proximity gained from 175+ yards and 22nd on par 5s between 550-600 yards.
Mike Rodden is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Mike Rodden also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mike_rodden. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.